Newsletters 11/5--11/11

[beachboy+]

Another exciting week!

POINTWISE

Write-ups coming later...

College Key Selections...
1--BYU over San Diego State 63-3
1--MISSOURI over Kansas State 58-13
2--NOTRE DAME (+) over Boston College 27-22
3--Alabama over LSU 37-24
3--Arizona over WASHINGTON STATE 61-3
4--SAN JOSE STATE over Louisiana Tech 34-14
5--IOWA (+) over Penn State 27-30
5--USC over California 45-10

NFL Key Selections...
3--Green Bay (+) over MINNESOTA 23-17
4--ARIZONA over San Francisco 33-13
4--SAN DIEGO over Kansas City 34-13
5--MIAMI over Seattle 30-10
5-- DETROIT (+) over Jacksonville 20-24

Write-ups coming later...

 

[tgunn11]

CKO CONFIDENTIAL KICK-OFF
PRIORITY PICKS and PREFERENCES
CKO Vol. 47 NOV. 6 - 10, 2008 No. 11

CKO CHOICE IN CAPITALS
* - Denotes Home Team
RATINGS: 11 - Exceptional, 10 - Strong, 9 - Above Average

11 N.C. STATE over *Duke
Late Score Forecast:
N.C. STATE 27 - *Duke 20

Acknowledge Duke’s dramatic improvement, a direct result of HC David Cutcliffe’s arrival. But Blue Devils not
accustomed to “wearing a target” as chalk, as they must for Tobacco Road battle vs. nearby NC State. ACC sources
believe 2nd-year HC Tom O’Brien has Wolfpack on the right track now that RS frosh QB Russell Wilson (accounted
for 10 TDs last 4 games) has emerged as a dangerous playmaker. Wilson’s contributions also making NCS a “tough
out” lately, as five covers in last six games (and taking BC, Florida State, and Maryland to the wire in last 3) would
indicate. And likely return of impact LB Nate Irving from ankle injury could give young, speedy Wolfpack “D” the
necessary playmaker to disrupt Duke “O” that coughed up the ball 4 times in the Devils’ OT loss at Wake.

10 *TENNESSEE over Wyoming
Late Score Forecast:
*TENNESSEE 37 - Wyoming 0

Despite sporting identical 3-6 straight-up records, there is a wide gulf between these two teams. Tennessee owns
the 11th-ranked defense in the country and has had to face four SEC teams ranked in the top ten. Wyoming’s
schedule has featured just one team ranked in the top 25, which resulted in a 44-0 loss to BYU. Wyoming snapped
an 0-15-1 pointspread run with a win against San Diego State last week, but lightning won’t strike twice. The
Cowboys managed to handle the injury-depleted Aztecs in the altitude at Laramie, but they’ll be lucky to merely score
in Knoxville this week. Wyoming is 119th (last) in scoring (11.7 ppg) & passing efficiency, and 118th in TO margin.
The Vols can finally give the soon-to-be-out Phillip Fulmer a big, fat satisfying win.

10 CINCINNATI over *West Virginia
Late Score Forecast:
CINCINNATI 27 - *West Virginia 26

Respected Big East scouts urge us to take generous number with healthy contender Cincy, which has inserted a
few gadget plays devised by wiley 2nd-year HC Brian Kelly for critical showdown in Morgantown. Scouts say
gutsy 6-6 QB Pike (wearing a protective cast) has inspired his mates by so quickly returning from painful wrist injury
that forced him to miss 2nd H of UConn loss. And now that Bearcats versatile 6-0, 208 soph RB Goebel (78 YR, 3
catches for 43 yds. vs. USF) had coming out party, productive Pike (62%, 9 TDs, 3 ints.) has dump-off receiver to
complement marvelous wide-outs Goodman (48 grabs, 5 TDs) & Gilyard (43, 7). WV defense hasn’t faced such a
nicely-balanced attack in ‘08. After impressively containing Bulls tough-running QB Grothe, Bearcats speedy,
veteran stop unit (15 pts. or fewer in 4 of last 5) is well-prepared for Mounties fleet-footed QB P. White, who’ll
complete precious few vertical passes vs. ball-hawking CBs Mickens (14 career ints.) & A. Smith. Plus, triplerevenge
minded Cincy is an eye-popping 9-1-1 last 12 as an underdog. Upset possible.

10 *LA.-LAFAYETTE over Utep
Late Score Forecast:
*LA.-LAFAYETTE 45 - Utep 24

Not many people outside of Cajun country are fully appreciative of Louisiana-Lafayette’s ground-gobbling offense,
which is third in the nation behind only Navy and Nevada. Deceptive lefty QB Michael Desormeaux (752 YR) is
among the best running QBs in the country, and he’s a much improved passer TY, hitting 63% with 8 TDs vs. 5
interceptions. 5-10, 205 sr. RB Tyrell Fenroy (1051 YR) has already reached the 1,000-mark for the fourth straight
year. And the defense has overcome early injuries to play with spirit, helping the Ragin’ Cajuns generate seven
straight covers, five of them as a favorite! While UTEP’s offense deserves respect, can’t say the same for the beatup
Miner defense that’s given up 126 points in just the last two weeks!

10 *MIAMI over Seattle
Late Score Forecast:
*MIAMI 26 - Seattle 7
(Sunday, November 9)

Talk about teams going in opposite directions this year! The four-time defending NFC West champions from Seattle
can’t seem to keep their key skill players healthy. Meanwhile, the Dolphins—a sorry 1-15 last year—are 4-4 and
contending in the very competitive AFC East. They’ve been reborn under the construction of Bill Parcells in the front
office, the instruction of Tony Sparano in practice, and the leadership of QB Chad Pennington on the field. Pennington
is carefully guiding the passing attack, the improved 2008 Dolphin OL is opening holes, RB Ronnie Brown is back in
action, RB Ricky Williams has stayed on the straight & narrow, and the offense is providing valuable ball control for
a defense that now has some bite with OLB Joey Porter (11½ sacks) healthy. Longest road trip in the league for
Seattle!

TOTALS: UNDER (38) in the Carolina-Oakland Game—Panthers have gone “over” in only two games TY; don’t ask about the Raiders’ offense...OVER (46½) in the Kansas City-San Diego Game—The rested, healthy S.D. offense will be too much for the young Chiefs to contain, but K.C. has found an offense that fits QB Tyler Thigpen & speedy RB Jamaal Charles.

HONORABLE MENTION (Nine-Rated Games): NEVADA (+2½) at Fresno State (Fri., Nov. 7)—The potent Wolf Pack is second in the nation in rushing; the banged-up Bulldogs haven’t covered since the first week of the season...BYU (-37) vs. San Diego State—The decimated Aztec DL can’t stop the run; that means QB Max Hall will have all day...HAWAII (-3½) at New Mexico State—Warriors own far more quality defenders than N.M. State; Aggies injured on
offense and overworked on defense...UCLA (+7½) vs. Oregon State—The Bruins have often been the hex team for the Beavers in some of OSU’s best years; UCLA 12-3 as a home dog L10+Ys...NEW YORK GIANTS (+3) at Philadelphia (Sunday, Nov. 9)—G-men 15-3 vs. the spread their last 18 on the road; 10-2 their last 12 as a dog.

 

[tgunn11]

KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 12 November 5-10, 2008 •

SELECTIONS: November 5-10, 2008

College Football

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Northern Illinois (+10) over Ball State
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Odd Wednesday night game, but once baseball ends
there’s a lot of midweek games in a conference
desperate for exposure. Northern Illinois better get
used to it. The Huskies are playing four straight
games on either Tuesday or Wednesday nights. And
the first one is the toughest, as NIU takes on the top
team in the league, the Ball State Cardinals.
Undefeated, with wins over Navy and Indiana, Ball State
has a high-powered passing attack led by Nate Davis.
Davis is logging 66% completions, a TD/INT ratio of 15/5,
and 8.9 yards per pass attempt. He has been bothered by
the career-ending injury to top target Dante Love only
slightly. Davis is obviously outstanding. But this is no
walkover for Ball State. Northern Illinois is a fine three-loss
team, with competitive losses at Minnesota, at Western
Michigan, and at Tennessee, all by 4 or less, all spreadcovering
defeats. Offering a lot of deception, multiple
formations, and a varied attack make NIU difficult to
defend. In their game-clinching drive against Bowling
Green, the Huskies operated out of five different
formations. The various quarterbacks they’ve had to use
this season, and the different styles of those quarterbacks,
means that opponents have to prepare for plenty of
different looks.
But the key to this selection is Northern Illinois’ pass
defense. With a QB as accomplished as Davis, you have to
be able to slow down the pass. The Huskies are uniquely
qualified to do that. NIU has what is clearly the best pass
defense in the conference. They allow only 5.4 yards per
pass attempt, 6 interceptions and only 7 touchdown
passes, all outstanding numbers. In conference play it
drops to 4.8 yards per pass attempt. They are easily the
best pass defense that Davis has faced, as Ball State’s two
top non-conference opponents both have poor pass
defenses, with Navy allowing 8.5 yards per attempt and
Indiana permitting 8.0. Will the quality of this defense
mean that it’s finally time for the loss of his top target to
come into play?
When you look at results in conference, these opponents
are pretty equal. Northern Illinois has close losses against
better opponents (Minnesota and Tennessee) than anyone
Ball State has played. These teams have blown out both
mutual opponents. Ball State has beaten Toledo 31-0 and
Eastern Michigan 38-16. It was Northern Illinois over
Toledo 38-7 and Eastern Michigan 37-0. You would expect
that in the same conference teams would have more than
two mutual opponents by now, but Toledo and EMU is all
there is. Jerry Kill, the first year Northern Illinois coach was
known for pulling off upsets over more talented teams in
1-AA, and is 3-0 to the number as an underdog here. From
what we know about him and what he’s showing, it would
be no surprise if Kill were coaching in the Big 10 or Big 12
in a few years. Northern Illinois hangs around for a long
time. Ball State by only 4.

Saturday, November 8th, 2008

Purdue (+10) over @Michigan State
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
Taking the Boilermakers here is not something I relish. The
team is just 3-6 on the year, and come off a 48-42 win
only because they played a Michigan squad that is in the
throes of a meltdown of historic proportions. Freshman QB
Justin Siller led the attack completing 21 of 34 passes for
266 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions and ran
the ball 15 times for 77 yards and another touchdown.
Sounds nice, until you learn that Siller was a backup
running back only three weeks ago. The regular starting
QB Curtis Painter is listed as day-to-day with a separated
shoulder. The Boilermakers played with little emotion until
last week. Head man Joe Tiller is in his last season of a
productive 12-year stint at West Lafayette and his players
seem to have checked out much as their retiring coach
has.
But this selection is all about Michigan State. The Spartans
are off a 25-24 come from behind win over Wisconsin. MSU
entered the game ranked #22 in the AP poll and are sure
to move up this week. But the Spartans have achieved
their lofty position largely on the back of Javon Ringer and
a whole lotta luck. Its not often an 8-2 team gets
outrushed by a large margin, but the Spartans as a team
run the ball for 3.6 yards per carry and give up 4.4. RB
Javon Ringer easily leads the nation in carries with 321.
That workload has brought the senior to edge of physical
breakdown. Two weeks ago Ringer missed practice time
with a sore hamstring, which caused him to miss some
plays in the second half against Michigan. In the same
game Ringer banged up his right shoulder, which had been
operated on over the offseason. Last week Ringer caught a
bad case of the flu and within a couple of days had lost 10
pounds. The virus took its toll and against the Badgers
Ringer totaled just 54 yards on 21 carries, easily his worst
game of the campaign.
Mark Dantonio just doesn't have anyone else to give the
ball to. And MSU's offensive issues don't stop there. QB
Brian Hoyer is completing under 50% of his passes, though
the receivers certainly deserve a share of the blame; they
dropped at least 7 passes against Wisconsin and have had
problems holding on to the ball all year.
There is plenty of tech to back up this selection, but my
favorite is a negative 25-53 ATS system that plays against
Michigan State. College teams off the tension and
excitement of a 1-point victory especially if they don't
benefit from the ego boost of a perfect season record. The
Boilermakers also benefit from a 43-11 ATS system derived
from the snapping of their extended losing streak. This
system is 4-1 since I started using it a couple of years ago.
With a season ending game against Penn State on deck
the Spartans need this one to lay claim to a prestigious
New Year's Day bowl game. But Michigan State's best
player is damaged goods and the 8-2 record is a mirage.
I'd much rather be playing on another Big 10 team but the
Spartans are pretty close to an automatic fade right now.
Take the points. Michigan State by 1.

Virginia (+4½) over @Wake Forest
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Have to feel terribly for Virginia’s workhorse running
back Cedric Peerman. After an OT touchdown by
Miami, the bruising Peerman fumbled on the ensuing
possession, and when a Hurricane fell on it, the
game was Miami’s. It was the first fumble in the
senior Peerman’s career, and the timing couldn’t
have been worse. Virginia was flat in the ballgame,
but you can’t really blame the Cavaliers, as they had
notched four consecutive upset wins, covering the
spread by a combined 92½ in those games. They
were due for a letdown and it happened on
Saturday. After a horrific start to the season,
punctuated by an offseason of player attrition and
early season legal problems of their then-starting
quarterback, Virginia has become a very tough
opponent. Certainly a tremendous coaching job by
Al Groh.
Can Virginia bounce back emotionally after the
Miami loss? UVA quarterback Marc Verica thinks so.
"It's a terrible feeling," said Verica. "I'm going to
work as hard as I can to not have this feeling again.
It's disappointing, but that's what happens when
you fail to take control of the game. So, all we can
do is keep fighting and get ready for Wake."
There’s a little bit of buzz about Wake Forest’s
return to the I-formation on Saturday but that
excitement ignores how fortunate that the Duke win
was and how Wake’s offensive line continues to
struggle mightily. The Demon Deacons eked out an
overtime win over Duke on Saturday, but it was a fortunate
one. The field-goal margin was a result of a 4-1 turnover
edge against Duke. All of Wake Forest’s scoring came on
drives that began in Duke’s territory. From a fumble of the
opening kickoff to a missed 42-yard field goal to end
regulation, Duke made mistake after mistake. On their
home field Wake Forest was outpassed slightly, outrushed
145-114, and had a 21-16 first down disadvantage. Even
before that, Wake Forest was in the lower echelon of
nearly every meaningful category, entering the game with
a horrible 4.3 yards per play average, placing them 113th
out of the 120 1-A teams in that vital statistic. Wake
Forest has been an equal opportunity offensive offender,
111th in yards per rush (2.8) and 89th in yards per pass.
Riley Skinner isn’t having a good year, and isn’t getting
much support.
That 145-114 rushing deficit Saturday is not a good sign
for the Deacons, as Duke averaged only 2.8 yards per rush
entering the game. With a motivated Peerman looking to
make up for his fumble on Saturday, Virginia should control
the game on the ground. The Cavaliers have simply been
playing better ball than the Deacons, and without the
game being handed to them on a silver platter the way
Duke did, there is little reason to expect that Wake Forest
will wake up and win by any sort of margin today. The
likelihood of a low scoring game makes points valuable
here. Take the points with Virginia. Virginia by 3.

@Vanderbilt (+24) over Florida
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Certainly takes a lot of intestinal fortitude to
fade the Gators after that national TV
performance this past Saturday. A lot of us
knew that Georgia would run out of gas sooner
or later, but no one expected a 49-10
massacre. Now the Gators must continue to
win and do so impressively to impress the
pollsters and computers. These two factors
combine to give us a number that is
astronomically high for this matchup.
Vanderbilt took 15-16 from Georgia “ between
the hedges” a couple of weeks back, and
played the Bulldogs very close. Now AT HOME,
they are taking 8 points more against Florida.
Basic math says that the linesmaker is telling
us that the Gators are about 17 better than
Georgia on a neutral field. I don’t care how
bad the Bulldogs were beaten on Saturday,
that isn’t the case and this is a huge overlay.
Vandy was the talk of the nation early on with
a home upset of South Carolina and then a
road win at Ole Miss. Both of those teams are
quality squads and those wins are no less
impressive now than they were then. The
Commodores are a well- coached team that
plays a physical brand of football. They are allowing
a very respectable 4.8 yards per play in the rugged
SEC, and have not allowed more than 24 points in
any game all season. Florida is an offensive
monster, but the Commodore defense is the type
that is always in position and just may be able to
keep UF’s speed in front of them by not overpursuing
on misdirection or biting on Tebow’s fakes.
Vandy has lost only 2 of their last 17 conference
home games by more than today’s margin, and 2 of
the last 3 games between these two have been
decided by a touchdown or less, including a 25-19
nailbiter at this site against the ’06 Gator National
Championship team. This Commodore team is
better than that one, and is taking over 3
touchdowns.
This is an excellent for the Commodores as they
come in off of a bye week against a Florida team
that may be ripe for a letdown off of their biggest
win of the season. Rested home dog w/revenge is
a lethal combination this time of year and usually
that system gets stronger when we are dealing with
a quality team. The Duke loss was on the heels of a
war at Georgia, and gives us more value here. The
line is simply too high. Florida by only 17.

@Florida St (-6½) over Clemson
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
What was a little family rivalry is no longer the case.
This match-up used to be the annual “Bowden Bowl”
with old man Bobby coaching off against his son
Tommy. But after Clemson opened the season at 3-
3, Tommy was fired. So the scribes will have to
actually write about the game this year, and not
rehash the Bowden family angle for the week. And
that will be a good thing for Florida St. For the first
time in nine years, Bobby and his club can prepare
for this game normally without the continuous
distraction of the repetitive family questions. There
was always more pressure on Bobby and Florida St
because his teams were always superior. In fact,
the Seminoles were 14½-point favorites or more in
five of the nine meetings. The gap has closed over
the last couple of years as Clemson’s talent got
better, but Florida St was still favored in every one
of those games. Now, without the awkwardness of
coaching against his son, this becomes just another
game.
Tough break for the Seminoles and their backers
(includes me) last week. With 52 seconds to go,
Florida St was down 3 and had the ball on Georgia
Tech’s 5-yard line. And on a play that looked like it
was going to be the go ahead touchdown, junior
fullback Marcus Sims fumbled the ball into the end
zone and it was recovered by Georgia Tech. The
Seminoles were somewhat fortunate to even be in a
position to win considering they were down 31-20
with just 6 minutes to play. But they showed a lot of fight
and resiliency. which is something past editions of this
team rarely displayed. And even though they lost, and had
a ton of trouble stopping Paul Johnson’s triple option, the
Seminoles still out-yarded Tech 384-343 and out-first
downed the Jackets 18-14. The triple option is tough to
stop, especially if you haven’t faced it in over 20 years:
“We haven’t played against it since Pat Dye ran it at
Auburn in the middle or late ’80s. Not many people run it
anymore. It’s not considered stylish,” said Bowden. So we
can dismiss the 288 rushing yards allowed on 6.4 yards per
rush Florida St allowed, and give them a pass because of
their inexperience against the tough to stop triple option.
Clemson has been competitive in their two games under
interim coach Dabo Swinney. They were 4-point losers at
home to Georgia Tech, and last week beat Boston College
27-21. But the sledding gets much tougher here as they’ll
face a Florida St defense that lays over the two teams they
just played. And with Clemson’s strength of running the
football with James Davis and CJ Spiller being nonexistent
over the last three games (21, 51, and 87 yards
combined), don’t expect the Tigers to have any success by
being one-dimensional to the pass. Clemson has beat
Florida St in the last three meetings, but look for that mini
run to snap here. That, along with Bobby Bowden being
41-24 against the spread off a loss makes the Seminoles
the play here. Florida St by 14.

Notre Dame (+3½) over @Boston College
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Boston College’s offense is really struggling. Despite
a 4-2 turnover advantage they became only the
second 1-A team to lose to Clemson. The Eagles
offense notched only 11 first downs with the passing
game being the main culprit. BC gained only 116
yards on 39 pass attempts. You’ve got to look long
and hard for a team that logs less than 3 yards per
passing attempt in a game, but the Eagles managed
to pull it off. BC ranks in the lower third of NCAA
ratings in most important offensive statistical
categories. Chris Crane is proving not to be the
answer for BC and in Boston sports parlance, Matty
Ryan’s not walking through that door.
BC has good defensive numbers, but let’s take a
look at their schedule. They’ve played Kent State,
Georgia Tech (before the Techsters started to “get”
Paul Johnson’s system), Central Florida, Rhode
Island, NC State, Virginia Tech, North Carolina, and
Clemson. It would take some research to find a BCS
conference team that has played a weaker slate of
offenses. The only attack with any pep that BC has
faced was North Carolina, a game BC lost 45-24.
Notre Dame’s defense has been impressive most of
the season, and their offense has picked up the pace
significantly as young talent has developed. Charlie
Weis’ crew only logged 391 yards against a Pitt
secondary that played inspired football after their
humiliation at the hands of Rutgers. But that was
the lowest Irish offensive output since their
September 20th failure up at Michigan State. And
while Notre Dame’s schedule has been criticized,
some of their opponents have proven to be better
than they appeared at the time, and they aren’t
playing paycheck games. Since their opener against
San Diego State the Irish have played nothing but
BCS conference competition. Notre Dame’s offense
is in a groove, and will present a significant
challenge for a BC defense that hasn’t seen many
sophisticated aerial attacks this season.
BC fans are generally fair-weather in nature but this is the
game they really get up for. And it isn’t a rivalry of equals.
But that is most dangerous when the “little brother” team
brings more to the table than these Eagles do. If you’re
concerned with Notre Dame fatigue off the 4 overtime loss
to Pitt, be aware that the Irish defense was on the field for
77 plays, compared to 64 plays for BC’s defense last week.
While I don’t mean to sound like a horse handicapper, this
is Notre Dame’s third game off a layoff, so they should still
have a certain amount of freshness after that week off.
The loss to Pitt insures Notre Dame’s full attention here, as
they are in danger of falling from BCS bowl territory
(however undeserved that would have been) and need to
win this one to remain at the Gator Bowl level. Take the
points with Notre Dame in a game that the Irish have no
excuse not to win. Notre Dame by 4.

@LSU (+3½) over Alabama
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Alabama is the new # 1 team in the country, a
spot they last held in 1980. The Crimson Tide
is the fifth different team to sit atop the polls
this year, and the previous four all have
something in common. They all were ousted
after losing a game on the road. And
according to our good friend Marc Lawrence,
his database states that “since 1980, teams
that start out the season at 8-0 or better who
taste defeat for the first time have done so
away from home in 75 of 102 occurrences.”
And this is Alabama’s last road game of the
season, so if they are to stumble, history tells
us this would be the spot.
Arkansas St was a very popular play last week
getting over three touchdowns against Alabama.
And taking those points was very logical. You had
Alabama in a big letdown spot after their win at
Tennessee and a game at LSU on deck. The Tide
had no such letdown though winning 35-0 while
holding the Red Wolves to just 157 yards of total
offense. It looks like a dominating win on the
surface, but a couple of red flags should be raised.
Without mountainous nose tackle Terrence Cody,
Arkansas St had success running the ball straight up
the gut, gaining 89 yards on 24 carries when you
eliminate the sack yardage. Quarterback John
Parker Wilson saw a ton of blitzes, and he had
trouble with them. He hit only 15 of 28 pass
attempts for an unimpressive 152 yards. Now you
can credit those two poor efforts to the letdown
theory, but when facing lesser talent from the Sun
Belt conference you just shouldn’t see it. If Alabama
was on cruise control for Arkansas St, do they just
expect that they’ll turn it on in Baton Rouge? That’s
a big challenge considering they’ll be facing much
bigger and much faster athletes at LSU.
Les Miles is not a coach we’re too fond of. He
makes a lot of questionable decisions throughout
the course of a game. But one thing you have to
give him is the fact that he’ll give his team every
chance to win a ballgame. He’s fearless when it
comes to going for it on 4th down, and he’ll call any
type of play from anywhere on the field. One thing
he most definitely is, is unpredictable. And be sure
he’ll pull every trick out of his bag here. LSU is the
looser team, and as Miles puts it, “Playing the No. 1
team in the country is kind of fun.” Alabama and
Nick Saban have to answer all the questions this
week about their jump to # 1 and his return to LSU,
a place he deserted for the big dollars of the NFL.
LSU is one tough place to play, and considering that
the Tigers haven’t been a home underdog since
2002 (a stretch of 42 games), Alabama’s stay on top
will be short lived. LSU by 3.

NFL

Thursday, November 6th, 2008

@Browns (-3, -125) over Broncos
Selection and Analysis by Kevin O’Neill
Not much productive has been written on this keyboard
about NFL football this season, but one smart thing we
have done is bucking the Broncos (really wasn’t intending
that pun when I began to write it). Last week we detailed
the terrible state of the Denver defense with oodles of
statistical backing. But we can’t let their offense off the
hook, can we? After a series of shootouts early in the
season, Denver looked like a promising offensive unit, but
in losing to Miami Sunday the Broncos scored fewer than
20 points for their fifth consecutive game. Jay Cutler is well
thought of as a promising young quarterback, but when he
threw his third interception in the loss to Miami it was his
fifth interception in his previous 58 passes. His finger is
likely still bothering him, and clearly his judgment is off.
He’s getting little help from a Broncos running game that
went for a piddling 14 yards on 12 carries. Shanahan’s
teams have historically done well after a bye week but
Denver looked woefully unprepared offensively. On
Monday Denver put running backs Michael Pittman and
Andre Hall on the injured list. Their defense won’t be
getting any better either, as they’re very beat up. Boss
Bailey’s out for the year, Champ Bailey’s out for another
month, and other defenders are bruised and battered as
well.
Tough loss for the Browns on Sunday. After spotting the
Ravens a 10-0 lead, Cleveland went on a 27-3 run, but
couldn’t close things out. After a botched screen pass was
returned for an interception to seal the game, Browns fans
chanted “Brady! Brady!” in support of backup quarterback
Brady Quinn. The Browns coaching staff agreed, and
Anderson, underperforming for much of the season, has
been benched. Quinn gets his first NFL start, and that
should have his teammates on edge, knowing that they’re
responsible to help the rookie get things done. We’ve seen
success for unproven QB’s in similar situations this year
(see Cassell, Matt), and it could happen here. Obviously
Quinn, a high draft pick, is highly thought of and has some
talent. Expect him to be more accurate than Anderson,
but without the same kind of big-time arm. And expect the
Brown running game to perk up. Cleveland went for only
64 yards on 23 carries but they go from the #1 rush
defense (Baltimore at 2.7 per carry) to #31 in Denver
(5.1). That’s certainly a class drop in that phase of the
game.
These NFL Network Thursday night games have proven a
difficult obstacle for road teams, much more than
Thanksgiving games. Is it because everyone is watching
on Thanksgiving, and few people are watching the NFL
Network games, offering less motivation? Who knows?
Obviously Denver should be better prepared for the short
turnaround due to the recent bye week, but that extra time
didn’t help in their game Sunday. And it hasn’t been case
they’ve lost on the road on Thursday nights the past two
seasons. The short week favors the home club in these
situations. The record is only 6-4 against the spread in the
NFL Network games but two of the losers were big dogs.
When the home team is seen at least as competitive, either
favored or taking 3 or less, the pointspread record is 6-2
for the home club.
While we think Brady Quinn should be OK (how about
hanging onto the ball, Braylon Edwards?), the real reasons
for this play are the scheduling dynamic, the fact that
Broncos have failed in this situation each of the past two
seasons, and the hideous level of play offered by Denver
on both sides of the ball. Browns by 10.

Sunday, November 9th, 2008

@Lions (+6½) over Jaguars
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
The Lions may be 0-8, but after a disastrous start the last
four losses have been reasonably competitive. Those
games were decided by 2, 4, 8 and 7 points and Detroit
had leads in three of them. The Lions even managed a 23-
13 halftime lead over Chicago last Sunday before losing 27-
23. The biggest Lions' news this weekend though was the
signing of free agent QB Daunte Culpepper. He worked out
in Allen Park during the week, inked a deal on Saturday
and Rod Marinelli announced the signing in his postgame
press conference. Mum was the word during the week but
it leaked out in postgame player interviews that QB Dan
Orlovsky was told during the week that last Sunday would
be his last start. I'm willing to look favorably on the
installation of Culpepper as the QB starter. By all accounts
the veteran's workouts were impressive. But most
importantly was the success of Dan Orlovsky. Since Matt
Millen was let go personnel decisions have been better all
the way around. Millen's interim replacement Martin
Mayhew got the better of Jerry Jones when WR Roy
Williams was shipped back to his home state of Texas for
multiple draft picks just before the trade deadline. At about
the same time ex-starting QB Jon Kitna was placed on IR
in favor of Orlovsky. Against a better schedule of
opponents Orlovsky compiled a QB rating six points higher
than Kitna's - 78 to 72. So I do believe the Lions' braintrust
got this right and Culpepper will improve on the Lions'
offensive stats. And Culpepper won't have a problem
learning the offense, because it is the simplest scheme in
the entire league. During training camp OC Jim Coletto
bragged that the bulk of the running plays took only 3 days
to install. One local pundit last week said he was told by a
Lions' insider that the average offensive player could learn
the offense in the time it took to make a single, ahem, visit
to the bathroom.
Those aforementioned stats are really the first indicator
that drew me to this side. I'm sick of beating this horse,
but starting in game 6 or so winless NFL dogs are a solid
longtime winner for their backers. But it does require some
intestinal fortitude because these teams are almost always
taking the worst of it from a statistical perspective. That is
what makes the Lions an interesting play - my stat model
actually prefers them. My numbers make the Jags just a
1.5 point favorite in this game on the season long
numbers.
Tech backing for Detroit comes from a 112-50 ATS system
that plays on teams in their division's basement. This
system is 20-12 ATS since I started using it, including 1-1
so far in 2008. Detroit also benefits from a 67-30 ATS
system that plays on bad defensive teams on long losing
streaks.
But the tech case is not the main reason to back the dog
here. The Detroit organization makes better decisions
without Matt Millen, and the move to install Culpepper tells
the current roster that the club wants to win now, and
probably won't be moving the untested 2nd year QB Drew
Stanton into the starting spot just to see what the kid has.
That might not be the best long term move, but it should
definitely bolster the emotional state of a roster that can
use every pick-me-up it can. Look for Detroit to get off the
schneid this weekend. Detroit by 1.

@Raiders (+8½) over Panthers
Selection and Analysis by Matty Baiungo
Well, here we go again. Another recommendation of a
bad, ugly underdog in the NFL that will have little, to no
backing on Sunday. But these are the best type of
underdogs to play in the NFL, the ones nobody wants. And
after you see this box score, you may think this play is flat
out crazy. The Falcons shutout the Raiders 24-0 at the
Coliseum with Atlanta winning first downs 30-3 and
yardage 453-77 with a time of possession edge of 45:15 –
14:45. Oakland had a total of 10 passing yards. Those
are no misprints, and they very well could be some sort of
records. The Falcons gained 5.5 yards per play while the
Raiders could only muster 2.3 yards per play. It’s really
unfathomable that a team of professional athletes making
millions of dollars per year could put forth an effort like
that in front of their faithful fans. But that’s exactly what
happened.
And as you would expect, there were plenty of quotes
coming out of the Oakland locker room after a humiliating
performance. “During the week, we look like we’re a
Super Bowl team, and we come out there and we’re damn
near the laughingstock of the league, and it’s ridiculous,”
said Gibril Wilson. “The people in this locker room have to
look at themselves in the mirror and see exactly what
they’re bringing to the table, and if they’re not bringing
anything to the table, then get off the ship, period.”
Interim head coach Tom Cable was quoted as saying that
Sunday's performance fooled him because he thought the
Raiders came into the game after "an amazing week" of
practice and "our best week of preparation." If so, then
how on earth can they regroup here and put forth a
competitive effort against the Panthers? It’s called heart.
And maybe the Raiders simply don’t have any, but this is
the spot to take a shot and give them the benefit of the
doubt that they’ve got it. The most dangerous animals are
ones that are backed into corners, and that’s where the
Raiders are right now. Nobody is taking them seriously.
How can you? But they get paid just like the guys they’ll
face opposite them. The talent level isn’t all that different,
so we’ll take a shot with the wounded dog looking to snap
back with vengeance.
Carolina enters off their bye. And they witnessed what the
rest of the world did. A pathetic performance out of
Oakland. And like everyone else who laughed at the
Raiders, the Panthers players were doing the same. Their
week of practice will not be full of serious preparation, but
instead one full of lackadaisical effort thinking they just
need to show up in Oakland and they’ll get an easy win.
Now one could say that will not be the case because head
coach John Fox is such an intense guy. But when we look
at his bad record as a favorite (25-30-2 ATS), his tendency
dictates that’s exactly what will be going on this week in
Charlotte. Under Fox, Carolina has 27………
road wins. Of those 27 wins, 17 of them have come in the
underdog role and were won by 10 points or less. So that
leaves ten games in which the Panthers were laying points,
and of those 10 games, only 4 times have they won by 10
points or more. So that means, the Panthers would be 4-
23 against the spread if they played against the number on
this game. With Carolina only 1-2 on the road this year,
and Oakland off such an embarrassing loss, expect the dog
to have a lot of bit here. Panthers by only 1.

Rams (+7½) over @Jets
Selection and analysis by Kevin O’Neill
The Bills are a pretty good team, but they played a flat
game and made the Jets look better than they really are on
Sunday. A key point in this game was in the first half.
After a Jets minus-4-yard field goal “drive” to cut the Bills
lead to 7-6, Buffalo took the kickoff and got the ball on
their own 30. Buffalo proceeded to run the next 27 plays,
notching 119 yards of offense, yet didn’t get a point out of
it. How did this happen? Long drive inside the 10, 92-yard
interception return, receive the kickoff, long drive inside
the 10, get stuffed on 4th and 1. Leaving points on the
board like that is demoralizing, and instead of being in a
position of having a double-digit lead, the Bills maintained
only a sliver of a margin. Buffalo played poorly from then
on, and the Jets notched a win, despite their only offensive
TD being scored on a 60-yard drive.
After playing three good games in a row the Rams threw in
a clunker on Sunday against a Cardinals team that has had
their number. Arizona regularly dominates the team from
their own home city, and this one was no different. But
we’re willing to forgive that putrid performance by St.
Louis. First of all, they were playing an Arizona team that
might be pretty good, and is led by a quarterback in Kurt
Warner who loves to return to his former home dome.
Secondly, it’s tough to play well week after week, and St.
Louis was off a 19-17 win at Washington, 34-14
domination of Dallas, and 16-23 last minute tough loss in
New England to a Patriots team that they outgained.
Except for the absolute top teams, winning streaks are
broken easily in the NFL. And St. Louis simply had a
colossal letdown on a day where Steven Jackson wasn’t
100% and shouldn’t have tried to play.
The Jets benefited from 3 turnovers on Sunday and how
have forced 13 on the season. The problem is that 10 of
those 13 have been in two games. In their other six
games they have forced only three total. So you’re not
looking at a wrecking crew that’s hell bent on separating
their man from the ball on a regular basis.
Now let’s not suggest that the Jets aren’t doing anything
well. They’re protecting Favre fairly well while generating
some sacks on their own. But this 5-3 outfit is far from a
dominating entry, and they are likely the weakest team
with a winning record in the league. Since September and
until Sunday their schedule had been bye week, Cincinnati,
at Oakland, Kansas City. Against those dregs their average
result was a four-point win and if not for a late TD at home
against the Chiefs the Jets would have lost two of three.
The Rams are capable of better than those teams, and
with this team responding well to Jim Haslett, we’ll look for
a bounce back. Anyone riding the Rams improvement
probably stops playing St. Louis after Sunday’s blowout
loss, which makes this a good time to jump on board.
Favre pulls it out late, but we’ll look for a Rams cover.
Jets by only 3.

Chiefs (+14) @ Chargers
Selection and Analysis by Erik Scheponik
Kansas City has shown some spunk lately,
losing two heartbreakers against the Jets and
Bucs, two playoff teams, the last two weeks.
They led both games very late, but their youth
prevailed, as they simply do not know how to
finish teams off. Sure they were aided by a
combined 7-1 turnover margin in those two
upset wins, but that’s the name of the game in
the NFL. Defensive Coordinator Gunther
Cunningham’s defenses have always forced
turnovers and his front 7 is very underrated and
capable of causing havoc. Tyler Thigpen is
improving with every game under center, and has
not thrown an interception in his last 82 pass
attempts. Now even the weak AFC West is bad
enough for them to pull the miracle and make up 3
games during the second half of the season, but
they are certainly playing some good football right
now, and doing things that cover pointspreads.
San Diego’s bye week along with their revenge
motive for an embarrassing home loss to a Chief
team that won only 4 games last season has kept
this line from adjusting to the Chiefs’ improvements.
It also helps our cause that they “need” this one, as
they are sitting at 3-5 and still looking up at Denver
in the division. Well revenge is extremely overrated
in NFL handicapping, and “needing” and “doing” are
two different things in this league. The fact of the
matter is that San Diego cannot stop anyone this
season. They fired DC Ted Cotrell after the loss to
New Orleans in London, so I’m sure the stop unit
will come out a bit motivated here on their strong
home field, but they will have to prove it to me.
They really were not a lockdown defense last season
either at 320 yards per game, they just took the ball
away from opposition as Shawne Merriman harassed
opposing quarterbacks into throwing 30
interceptions. This year the Chargers are allowing
an ugly 372 ypg, and the pass defense has been
abysmal at 7.0 yards per pass. Opposing
quarterbacks have completed 68% of their passes
for a 95% efficiency rating. The run defense has
been only marginally better at 4.0 ypr. Soft
defenses always make a great fade when laying big
points, and San Diego certainly fits the bill.
This line would have been understandable at the
beginning of the season, but we have seen enough
of San Diego to make an adjustment. The
linemaker refuses to do so, so we’ll gladly take the
big number. Double-digit favorites are an ugly 3-13
ATS in the NFL this season, and we’ll look for
another to bite the dust here. San Diego by only
7.

 

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[DancesWSheep]

POINTWISE
COLLEGE KEY RELEASES

BYU over San Diego State RATING: 1
MISSOURI over Kansas State RATING: 1
NOTRE DAME over Boston College RATING: 2
ALABAMA over Lsu RATING: 3
ARIZONA over Washington State RATING: 3
SAN JOSE STATE over La Tech RATING: 4
IOWA over Penn State RATING: 5
SO CALIFORNIA over California RATING: 5

BYU 63 - San Diego State 3 - (2:00) -- Chance for Coogs to do one up right, off allowing 32, 35, 42 pts last 3 outings, winning in final 1:46 & 0:22 last 2, behind 9 Hall TD throws. Aztecs: 119th "O", 120th "D", & lost last 3 RGs by 181-34.


MISSOURI 58 - Kansas State 13 - (3:30) -- Powerful Tigers needed late FG to escape at Baylor, with Daniel just 3/2. But now in friendly confines, where they covered last hoster by 34 pts. Nine TO deficit for KSt last 2 wks (3 Freeman INTs LW), in ceding 110 pts. 'Cats have allowed 58 pts twice already. Ditto.

NOTRE DAME 27 - Boston College 22 - (8:00) -- Irish must regroup off 4 OT
loss to Pitt. Not much, overland (<116 yds 6-of-8), but Clausen at 1,477 yds & 12/3 last 5 games, & check 17 ppg "D" previous 9, before Pitt. BC floundering of late: 11 FDs vs Clemson; 80 RYpg last 4; & 32 ppg "D" last 4. Call the upset.

Alabama 37 - LSU 24 - (3:30) -- Now top-ranked Tide is wearing the bull's-eye. But they are methodical. Ten straight wins, with only OleMiss topping 92 RYs. And Coffee, Ingram, Parker, etc lead underrated "O". Are +87½ pt ATS away. Tigs have allowed 51 & 52 pts 2 of last 4, & visitor is 19-7 ATS in Bengal tilts.

Arizona 61 - WASHINGTON STATE 3 - (5:00) -- Tuitama had his way with the Coogs LY (Wise Points), & no reason not to duplicate that pounding, as 'Zona bounceback off USC loss is paramount. Running out of dubious superlatives in describing WashSt. Lost last 3 HGs by 66-3, 63-14, 69-0. Any other way?


SAN JOSE STATE 34 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (8:00) -- Loved LT's upset of Fresno LW, with 280-63 RY edge (Porter: 189 yds). But don't forget 9 FD, 152 yd display in last RG (Army). So host now 9-0 ATS by 101½ pts in 'Dog games.

Penn State 30 - IOWA 27 - (3:30) -- Rested Nits now have a 376-100 pt edge, along with balanced 2,125 RYs & 2,106 PYs, behind Clark & Royster. And check 7th best "D". But only Wisc has topped 130 RYs vs Hawkeyes, while Greene (6.3 ypr) & QB Stanzi keep "D"s honest. Plus 50½ pts ATS last 4 tilts.

SO CALIFORNIA 45 - California 10 - (8:00 - ABC) -- Troy now at a 220-20 pt edge since loss to OregSt. Impenetrable "D" (#1, #1, #2, #9 in total, scoring, passing & rushing). Bears own #12 run "D", & Best at 6.8 ypr this yr, but Cal lost its last 2 RGs by 22, 17½ pts ATS, & just not in same league with Trojans


WEDNESDAY

BALL STATE 27 - Northern Illinois 20 - (8:00 - ESPNU) -- Cards now 8-0 (best start in more than 4 decades). Balanced behind QB Davis (15/5), but just +2 pts ATS at home. NIU's "D": only 3 offensive TDs allowed in last 25 quarters.


AKRON 34 - Toledo 28 - (8:00 - ESPN2) -- Not much breathing room in Zip tilts (2, 3, 4, 7 pt SU margins last 4). Exploded for 339 RYs vs EM (Kennedy: 277). Rockets stayed with Central, but lost their last RG by 22 pts ATS. Mild Zip call.


THURSDAY

Maryland 24 - VIRGINIA TECH 17 - (7:45 - ESPN) -- Of course, it all depends on the spread, as the dog is +144½ pts ATS in Terp games this yr (+134½ in their 4 ACC contests). Rested off taking NCSt in final 0:06, with RB Scott at 718 yds. VT lost QBs Taylor & Glennon in loss to FlaSt, & ranks 114th on offense.

Tcu 30 - UTAH 20 - (8:00) -- 10th-ranked Utes vs 11th-ranked Frogs. Utah still perfect (9-0), are at 37.5 ppg last 8, behind QB Johnson, & rank 6th on "D". But TCU is smoking, with a 126-28 pt edge the past 3 wks. Rank 2nd in total "D", & 1st vs the run. Dalton threw 4 INTs LY, so don't expect such gifts again.

FRIDAY
Nevada 38 - FRESNO STATE 34 - (9:00) -- As figured, 'Dogs couldn't keep up weekly squeaking wins. No run "D", altho they did run for 318 yds each of last 2 HGs. Reno: 1,613-295 RY edge last 5 contests, & averaging 42 pts last 3 RGs.


SATURDAY
RUTGERS 24 - Syracuse 17 - (12:00) -- Knight QB Teel: school-record 6 TD
passes in 54-34 rout of Pitt, but note ranking 107th in rushing, & -56 pts ATS home TY. 'Cuse: +30½ ATS last 4; & RB Brinkley: 5 straight 100-RY games.

Wisconsin 34 - INDIANA 24 - (12:00) -- Wisky must regroup off losing in final 0:07 at MichSt, despite 281-25 RY edge. Allowing 33 ppg last 7 Big10 RGs, but Indy minus 93 pts ATS, & has allowed >41 pts 4 of last 7. Near the spot.

Ohio State 33 - NORTHWESTERN 13 - (12:00) -- No Bacher for 'Cats in miracle win over Minny (48-yd INT return in final 0:12), but note Kafka 12-of-16, with 217 RYs. Bucks have impressed just once all year, & rank 94th on "O", with >170 RYs in just 2 lined games, but did cover their last RG by 34½ pts. Bucks.

MICHIGAN STATE 44 - Purdue 20 - (12:00) -- Incredible 281-25 RY deficit for Spartans LW, but a win, nonetheless. Visitor 6-0 ATS in MSt games of late (by 64 pts), but they are a staple in home closers. No Painter for Boilers LW, but had 256 RYs, 266 PYs in last-minute win over Mich. However, not to be trusted.

NORTH CAROLINA 27 - Georgia Tech 23 - (12:00) -- Jackets in off miracle win (endzone fumble recovery in final 0:45). Have a 1,753-835 RY edge in lined tilts (threw just 6 passes vs FlaSt). Rested Tars at 37 ppg last 3 HGs (UConn, NoDame, BC), allowing 62 RYpg last 3 outings, & 3 TDs for QB Sexton in LG.

Western Michigan 31 - Illinois 30 - (12:00 - @ Detroit) -- Slipping Illini have
topped 88 RYs just 1 of last 4 games, & caught in Iowa/OhioSt sandwich here. Bronco QB Hiller at 28/5, but that "D" has allowed >25 pts five times. We pass.

Virginia 17 - WAKE FOREST 15 - (12:00) -- Just 10 ppg for Wake in 5 games, previous to OT win over Duke, & check <82 RYs 4 of last 7. Cavs in off killer loss, & at only 87 RYpg last 3, but are +82½ pts ATS last 5 games. Meek call.

North Carolina State 30 - DUKE 23 - (3:30) -- Four straight losses for the 'Pack, but 3 straight covers, with Wilson tossing 7 TDs last 4. Can't run (110th), but neither can Imps (103rd), who lost their last HG 49-31, & in off OT loss to WF.

Oklahoma State 42 - TEXAS TECH 40 - (12:30) -- Amazing 31 FDs, 579 yds, 39 pts for Tech vs Texas, in last-second win. Harrell: 474 PYs, & now 28/5. And how about >100 RYs in all 9 gms. But 'Pokes the epitome of balance (320 yd edge LW), behind Robinson (20/6) & 274 ypg, overland. Perfect vs spread.

Florida 38 - VANDERBILT 7 - (8:00) -- Had Gators atop RedSheet & Phones in 49-10 rout of Georgia (4 takeaways & 5 Tebow TDs). Now a 201-43 pt edge since loss to OleMiss. Rested 'Dores at +54½ pts ATS, holding 6-of-8 foes below 18 pts, but haven't topped 14 pts since Sept, & rank 110th in total "O".

SOUTH CAROLINA 24 - Arkansas 17 - (1:00) -- Just 11 FDs for 'Cocks in 21 pt win over Tennessee. Rank 4th, defensively, allowing <25 pts each of last 10 games, but averaging only 73 RYs last 4 tilts. Hogs took Tulsa, despite 184-50 RY deficit, & allowing 34 ppg last 13 lined gms. But SC in a revenge sandwich.

Georgia 23 - KENTUCKY 3 - (12:30) -- Luckout win for 'Cats LW, with MissSt missing PAT & 27-yd FG. UK allowing only 12 ppg 8-of-9 games, thus far, but minus 41 pts ATS in last 4 games. 'Dawgs' Stafford: 3 INTs in wipeout loss to Florida, & Moreno was corralled. That all changes in Georgia bounceback call.

Bowling Green 38 - OHIO U 27 - (2:00) -- Call reversal of LY's OU road win, as the visitor is 8-1 ATS in BG games this year, by 120½ pts. Can't stop the run (>205 yds last 4), but Ohio in off 150-RY deficit, & minus 15 pts ATS home TY.

BOISE STATE 41 - Utah State 10 - (2:00) -- As noted LW, the Broncos seem to play their best ball away, but check holding 6 of 8 foes below 8 pts, & only Oregon ran on 'em. Host 6-0 ATS by 78 pts in Ag tilts lately. Not interested.

Oklahoma 63 - TEXAS A&M 24 - (2:00) -- Sooners now at 50 ppg in last 10 tilts (Bradford: 5 TDs vs Nebraska), altho can't ignore allowing 35 ppg last 4 games. Ag QB Johnson has 7 TD passes last 2 wks, & should dent Okie "D" a bit, but A&M ranks 104th in total "D", & is minus 65 pts ATS at home this yr. Romper!

RICE 45 - Army 40 - (2:00) -- No stopping Owls. Try 45 ppg 8-of-9 (Texas), with Clement off 6 TD effort vs Utep. That's 20 last 5 tilts, & 30/6 for the yr. Army: 263 RYpg last 6 (Mooney: 737 last 5), & +87½ pts ATS last 6 tilts. Wild one!

COLORADO 30 - Iowa State 17 - (3:00) -- Just 12 ppg for Buffs last 6 games, & have now lost RB Stewart, coming from 3-0 start to 4-5. Cycs provide perfect remedy, allowing 42 ppg last 6, off 320-yd deficit, & minus 73½ pts ATS last 4.

Memphis 41 - SMU 34 - (3:00) -- Lowly Ponies own worst "D" in land & 4th worst run "D" (417 RY deficit last gm), but did cover last 2 HGs by 26 pts. Tigs in off 30 FD, 516 yd effort behind 4th string QBing, & 178 RYs from Steele. Pass.

FLORIDA STATE 27 - Clemson 13 - (3:30) -- Just 21, 51, 87 RYs for the Tigers in last 3 outings, & Harper in off 3-INT showing. But none of last 7 foes have topped 21 pts. 'Noles had 4-game run snapped in heartbreaking fashion (fumble into endzone in last minute). Nicely balanced, along with land's 3rd ranked "D".

EAST CAROLINA 26 - Marshall 23 - (3:30 - CBSC) -- Herd came alive in upset of Houston, with a 249-106 RY edge, off a 737-211 RY deficit in previous 3 outings. Dog still the way to go in Pirate tilts (+126½ pts ATS last 8 outings).

Kansas 38 - NEBRASKA 27 - (3:30) -- Shades of '07 with LW's 52-21 Jay rout of KansasSt, with formerly 130 RYpg "O" at 280 yds (Sharp: 181). 'Huskers are allowing 41 ppg in last 12 Big12 contests. Balanced behind Ganz: 1,219 yds last 4 wks) & Helm (9.8 ypr vs Okies). Vividly remember LY, but not enuff.


TENNESSEE 30 - Wyoming 3 - (1:00) -- Drop down in class for Vols, who've
done little, offensively (#113), but who rank15th on "D". Finally a cover for WY (by 19½), along with 378-17 RY edge (Moore: 234 yds), but that ends quickly.

OREGON 44 - Stanford 22 - (3:30) -- Card just latest squad to blast WashSt. At 248 RYpg last 6, behind Gerhart (4 rushing TDs LW). A 206-132 RY edge for Ducks vs Cal, but passing game was putrid (11-of-32), so there went that. Are -27½ pt ATS in last 2 HGs, but they play their best vs Cardinal (Wise Points).


Arizona State 38 - WASHINGTON 10 - (7:00) -- Yes, we know that the Devils, who are on a 6-game slide, can't run (67 ypg last 5), but can't overlook 523-288 yd edge in LY's 44-20 rout of hapless Huskies. UW now 0-8, allowing 40 ppg in last 11 outings, & >230 RY in all but one game. No "O". No "D". Sun romp.

Hawaii 27 - NEW MEXICO STATE 17 - (4:00) -- No Brennan for 'Bows (blitzed Ags for 18 TDs last 3), who have a 293-149 pt deficit in last 9 lined games. But Ags at 9 ppg last 3 wks, & 35 ppg "D" in last 19 lined tilts. No run "O" or "D".

HOUSTON 37 - Tulane 27 - (*:00) -- Coogs have owned Wave (Wise Points), & have piled up 2,128 yds in their last 4 outings (Keenum: 25/7). But they're just 2-9 ATS of late, as their 97th ranked "D" has been their bane. The pup is 7-1 ATS in Greenie games, by 107½ pts, but comfy Houston wins the series rule.

AIR FORCE 40 - Colorado State 17 - (6:00) -- Clashing trends! Visitor is 7-1
SU in lined Falcon games this year, while the host is 7-0 ATS in Ram contests, with ColoSt allowing 41 ppg away thus far. Figure Rams reeling off loss to BYU in final 0:22, with return to form for Falcon running game off anemic effort LW.

Oregon State 27 - UCLA 20 - (6:00) -- Beavs can't let this get away, with Cal, Arizona, & Oregon on deck. Barely escaped ArizSt, moving SU run to 6-0, & still +78 pts ATS in those 6. Uclans have 323-63, 250-86, 232-16 RY deficits last 3 outings, ranking 102 on "O", & Craft in off 4 INT showing. But steer clear.

Arizona 61 - WASHINGTON STATE 3 - (5:00) -- Tuitama had his way with the Coogs LY (Wise Points), & no reason not to duplicate that pounding, as 'Zona bounceback off USC loss is paramount. Running out of dubious superlatives in describing WashSt. Lost last 3 HGs by 66-3, 63-14, 69-0. Any other way?

Southern Mississippi 33 - CENTRAL FLORIDA 17 - (3:30) -- Eagles not only
stopped their 5-game bleeding in win over Uab, but their 77 pts represented the most pts they've scored since '75, while their 49 first half pts were a school record (48-pt cover). A 463-96 RY edge (5 Davis rushing TDs). Revenge call.

TEXAS 58 - Baylor 17 - (7:00) -- May seem difficult for 'Horns to come back off absolute killer loss in final 0:01 at TexTech. But McCoy still at 23/5 (79%), & he riddled Bears for 6 TDs in '06. BU competitive & balanced, behind brilliance of Griffin (26 FDs, 438 yds vs Mizzou), but not about to stay with Steers in Austin.

WEST VIRGINIA 24 - Cincinnati 20 - (7:00) -- If comparing UConn results were true barometer, this would be 49-pt Mountie call. But 11 TO difference in those 2 meetings. WV just 220 RYpg last 4 (4.2 ypr LW), so still not up to normal standards. Cincy in off dismantling of SoFla, behind 20-of-28 from Pike. Tight.

Louisville 31 - PITTSBURGH 27 - (12:00) -- Three-game Card run snapped at Syracuse, as formerly 75 RYpg "D" was blitzed for 207 yds. Not to be trusted, defensively (31 ppg last 10 lined games), but neither are Panthers (ceding 44 ppg last 2). Another 169 RYs for McCoy in upset of Irish (762 last 5). Battle.

MINNESOTA 38 - Michigan 25 - (12:00) -- Both off killer outcomes. First losing season for Wolves since '67, & first non-bowl year since '74. Lost to Purdue on hook-&-ladder play in final 0:25, & now allowing 41.5 ppg in last 4 RGs. Minny at 7-2, losing on Weber INT taken in for TD in final 0:12. Plus 92½ pts ATS TY.

New Mexico 27 - UNLV 17 - (10:00 - CBSC) -- Five straight losses for Rebels, 3 in the 4th quarter. Totally outclassed by TCU (27-12 FD deficit), & have ceded 34 ppg in their last 31 outings. No rest for Lobos (11th straight week), who've covered 5 of last 6, & who ran for 271 ypg previous 3 to Utah. Solid Nov squad.


ADDED GAMES
TROY 37 - Western Kentucky 17 FLA ATLANTIC 43 - North Texas 10
LA-LAFAYETTE 34 - Utep 21 Arkansas St 23 - FLA INT'NAL 21
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE 27 - La-Monroe 21
<!-- / message --> <!-- sig -->
NFL KEY RELEASES

GREEN BAY over Minnesota RATING: 3
ARIZONA over San Francisco RATING: 4
SAN DIEGO over Kansas City RATING: 4
MIAMI over Seattle RATING: 5
DETROIT over Jacksonville RATING: 5

Green Bay 23 - MINNESOTA 17 - (1:00) -- These 2 are tied, a game back of the Bears, in the NFC Central. Vikings climbed back to .500 behind 3 TDs from Frerotte, who completed just 11-of-18 vs the Texans. And check 49 & 55 yd completions to Berrian. So 69 pts for Minny in its last 2 games, after failing to top 21 pts in 8 of its previous 10 games. Packers have outrushed just 1 foe (178-102 deficit in OT loss to Titans LW), but Rodgers is now 13/5, with nearly 2,000 yds. GreenBay is 22-8 SU of late, & is not only 9-4 ATS off a loss of 3 pts or less, but 6-0-1 ATS vs Minny, & 14-5 ATS in its last 19 RGs. Call the upset.


ARIZONA 33 - San Francisco 13 - (8:35 - ESPN) -- Five straight losses for the Niners, both SU & ATS, allowing 33 ppg in those setbacks. You know Singletary won't stand for that, but little he can do at the moment. And taking on the 5-3 Cards, in this atmosphere, is hardly a remedy for a turnaround. 'Zona now with a 3½ game lead over the Niners, Seahawks, Rams, while averaging 31.3 ppg in its last 16 games. Warner: 381 & 342 PYs last 2 weeks, with iffy running game on the rise. Cards on 21-10 ATS run, & chalk is 9-2 ATS in 'Zona games. Niners just 1-7 ATS off pair of losses, when seeking revenge vs winning teams. Cards.

SAN DIEGO 34 - Kansas City 13 - (4:15) -- Go ahead, figure it out. The lowly Chiefs, who rank 32nd in containing the run, storm to a 183-81 RY edge over the Bucs, who rank 9th in rushing "O", as well as 8th in rushing "D". And they did it without the suspended Johnson. Anyway, KC blew a 24-13 lead in the 4th quarter of that one, losing in OT, to push their SU record to 1-7. Catching the rested Chargers off a pair of setbacks isn't what they need, in trying to get things straightened out. Rivers now at 19/6, while SanDiego is 14-5 ATS off a SU loss. And the Chargers have covered their last 2 HGs by 26 pts. Blowout!


MIAMI 30 - Seattle 10 - (1:00) -- We realize that this runs head on into the fact that the dog has covered the last 6 games involving the Dolphins, by 92½ pts. But Miami has been brilliant of late, with Pennington at 71% in those 6 tilts. So the Fish now rank 9th in total "O". Seattle, in stark contrast, has no offense. Just 10 FDs & 181 yds at Philly, with Wallace clicking on a 90-yd TD pass, but managing only 77 yds in his other 27 attempts. Covered last RG by 26½, but had a 388-261 yd deficit. Seahawks are 3-12 ATS on the AFC road.

Jacksonville 24 - DETROIT 20 - (1:00) -- Can they do it again? LW, the Jags suffered embarrassment of losing to the then 0-8 Bengals, & this week, they get a chance to duplicate that feat vs the 0-8 Lions. Check a 159-68 RY deficit vs a Cincy team which entered with a 1,175-616 RY deficit for the season. Lions now on 1-15 SU slide, altho they did lead the Bears by 10 at the half LW, with 3 TDs in a 6½ minute span of the 2nd quarter. Detroit ranks 31, 31, 32, & 32 in all 4 major defensive categories, & has topped 100 RYs just once. The pits. But the dog is 11-0-1 ATS in J'Ville games, with 7 upsets in last 8 games.


THURSDAY
CLEVELAND 23 - Denver 16 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Three straight losses for Denver, with an alien 839-451 RY deficit over its last 5 games (astounding 14 RYs vs Miami), & minus 11 TOs for the season. So the Broncos are on an 8-23 ATS slide, with the only cover in their last 7 games by a single pt. Browns in off having 27-13 lead over Baltimore, late in 3rd, dissolve into 37-27 loss. A 193-64 RY deficit in that one, with Cleveland outrushing exactly 1 team all season, altho that "D" has held 9 of its last 12 foes below 20 pts. Brownies are an amazing 17-2 ATS off yielding 27+ pts, & they are 11-2 ATS as a chalk off a SU/ATS setback.


Tennessee 20 - CHICAGO 19 - (1:00) -- Titans remain the only unbeaten team in the NFL. Just 1 TD vs GreenBay, but a 19-16 OT win, which further extends Tennessee's brilliant run, in which it has held 11 of 12 foes under 18 pts, with the only miss in its 31-21 Monday win over the Colts. And the Titans are +72 pts ATS for the season. Third straight HG for Bears, who saw rebirth of Rex Grossman in comeback win over the Lions, with Orton exiting early (ankle). Bears: from 100 RY deficit, to 100 RY edge. Chicago is 18-6 ATS hosting an AFC team, while Tennessee is 24-10 ATS vs the NFC. Very little to choose.

NEW ENGLAND 22 - Buffalo 16 - (1:00) -- Bills sure laid an offensive bomb vs the Jets. Just 30 RYs for Buffalo, with Lynch managing a paltry 1.8 ypr. Now must take to the road, where the Bills are averaging a meager 13.8 ppg in their last 13 guest shots. Try minus 32½ ATS in their last 2 as visitors. But that "D" is still solid (11th in the NFL), & should be able to somewhat contain the Pats' 19th ranked "O". Patriots just 4-10 ATS lately, with the visitor 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games. New England is 21-6 ATS off a loss, & 22-11 ATS as a division chalk. Buffalo is 8-3 ATS on the division road, but just 2-7 ATS vs the Patriots.


ATLANTA 30 - New Orleans 27 - (1:00) -- Wow! We know that the Raiders are bad, but not as bad as the pasting that the Falcons laid on them. Try a 30-3 FD edge, along with a 454-77 TY advantage, in that 24-0 whitewashing. Check Ryan at 17-of-22, with another 139 RYs for Turner (now at 794). Thus the vastly improved Falcs are just a game back of Carolina. Saints survived the Bush injury, with Brees firing for 339 yds & 3 TDs in win over the Chargers, to push his totals for the season to 2,563 yds & 15/7. So plenty of fireworks in store here, & with Falcons 17-8 ATS as division chalks, it's a mild Atlanta call.


NEW YORK JETS 23 - St Louis 19 - (1:00) -- Three-way tie atop AFC East, with Pats, Bills, & Jets. New York did a fine job of containing that Buffalo "O", & has now allowed only 49 RYpg in 4 of its last 5 outings. Offensively, the Jets have averaged 37 ppg in their last 3 HGs, but lost their last hoster by 10 pts ATS. St Louis had its 3-game spread run rudely ended, with that 510-231 yd deficit in 34-13 loss to the Cards, & has now failed to reach 20 pts in 7 of its last 8 games. But note that the Jets are 1-10 ATS chalks of 7+ pts off a pair of wins.

Carolina 30 - OAKLAND 10 - (4:05) -- How can anyone logically call this any
other way? Sure, things in the NFL are rife with nonsensical results, but we
can see no way that the Raiders can completely rebound off what has to be
their ultimate embarrassment: 30-3 FD & 454-77 TY deficits in their home
loss to the Falcons. Check Russell's 6-of-19 for 10 yds. Raiders: 9.4 ppg in
last 5 outings. Rested Panthers sit atop the NFC South, after overcoming a
17-3 3rd quarter deficit vs the Cards, with Delhomme now at 9/5. Are 7-2-2

PITTSBURGH 27 - Indianapolis 20 - (4:15) -- Tony Dungy returns to Pittsburgh. The Colts snapped their mini 2-game slide, with narrow escape vs the Pats, but note a 140-43 RY deficit. And they entered that game with a 144-73 RY pg disadvantage. So they should have their hands full with the Steelers, altho Pitt isn't up to its normal overland standards, ranking just 18th in that category, thus far. Defensively, however, it's all Steeler, ranking 1, 3, 1, 3, in total "D", rushing "D", passing "D" & scoring "D". Indy is just 5-13 ATS away off a win of 3 pts or less, while Pitt is 7-0 ATS as a Nov non-division host vs a foe off a win.

New York Giants 23 - PHILADELPHIA 17 - (8:15 - NBC) -- Oncoming Eagles
have won 3 straight, while averaging 31 ppg. As we've said many times, a
healthy McNabb is a whole new world. Threw for 349 yds in annihilation of the Seahawks LW, & is now at 10/4. Catching the Giants off Pitt & Dallas is a plus, but NY is an entirely different matter. Check 23-11 FD & 200-81 RY edges in rout of the Cowboys. NY is 14-3 ATS on the road, has held 8 of 12 foes to 17 pts or less, & is 12-1 as a division dog vs a foe off a non-division SU win. Philly is 8-2-1 ATS of late, but the visitor is 6-0 ATS in Eagle division contests of late.


Baltimore 27 - HOUSTON 23 - (1:00) -- We know that the Texans are averaging a superb 31 ppg in their last 9 HGs, & have a 95-60 FD edge in their last 4 games, but quite frankly, opening as a 2½ pt chalk here, is a bit puzzling. After all, their quality QB Schaub left in the 2nd quarter of their loss to Minny, with his status questionable, as we go to press. The Ravens are on a 7-1-1 ATS run, with their 24-0 windup over the Browns, their latest accomplishment. Check a 525-182 RY edge in their last 3 games. The Texans are 17-27 ATS vs nondivision foes, but the Ravens are 14-5 ATS off pulling an upset. Baltimore call.

 

[DancesWSheep]

THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA

BALT.-HOUSTON “OVER”
We often see extended runs with certain NFL “totals” trends, and Houston’s proclivity for “overs” is a great example. The Texans have gone “over” 7 of their first 8 this season, adding to noteworthy “over” numbers that have been accumulating since late in the ‘06 campaign (20-8-1 “over” last 29 on board). So, we’re looking “over” for this week’s Hurricane Ike make-up game
at Reliant Stadium vs. Baltimore, now “over” 8-4-1 itself its last 13 as a visitor.

SAN FRAN.-ARIZONA “OVER”
Another “over” NFL team in recent times has been Arizona, which has also been going “over” a lot when facing Monday night’s opponent at U of Phoenix Stadium, NFC West rival San Francisco, the past few years. Seven of the last ten series meetings have gone “over,” as well as the last three contested in the desert. The Cards are also “over” five straight at home, as well as in 23 of their last 31 games overall since late in the ‘06 campaign.



DENVER at CLEVELAND (Thursday, November 6)...Broncos sliding with no covers last 6 TY, and Browns covers 4 of last 5. Shan 2-13 vs. line last 15 as visitor. Broncos “over” 9-3-1 last 13 away. Romeo 9-3 vs. line last 12 as host. Tech edge-Browns and slight to “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

BALTIMORE at HOUSTON...(make-up game for Hurricane Ike
postponed game; Cincy gets a bye this week)...Texans “over” 7-1 in ‘08 and “over” 20-8-1 last 29 since late ‘06. Houston 9-4 vs. line last 13 at Reliant Stadium. Ravens “over” 8-4-1 last 12 away (3-1 TY). Tech edge-“Over” and Texans, based on “totals” and team trends.

JACKSONVILLE at DETROIT...Jags no covers first 6 as chalk TY but 2-2 vs. line away, now 9-5 vs. spread as visitor since LY. Lions no covers first 3 as host TY and just 1-6 against number last 7 at Ford Field. Jags “over” 12-3-1 last 16 away. Tech edge-slight to Jags and “over”, based on team and “totals” trends.

TENNESSEE at CHICAGO...Titans have won first 8 TY, covering 7 of those. Fisher 14-6 vs. line last 20 as visitor, if dog note 16-7 mark in role since ‘06. Bears now “over” 19-4 last 23 at Soldier Field (4-0 TY!). Tech edge-“Over” and slight to Titans, based on “totals” and team trends.

BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND...Bills have lost last 9 SU vs. Belichick (Buffalo 2-7 vs. line those games), failing to score more than 17 in any of those defeats. Eight of last 9 meetings at Foxborough “under” although the “over” came LY. Belichick “under’ 4-2-1 TY and 6-2-1 last 9 since late ‘07. Tech edge-“Under”, based on team and series “totals” trends.

NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA...Saints have covered 6 of last 8 in series. Saints “over” 18-9 last 27 on board. Falcs, however, how covered first 3 at home for new HC Mike Smith. Tech edge-“Over”, based on Saints’ “totals” trends.

ST. LOUIS at NY JETS... Rams 3-1 vs. line udner Jim Haslett, and “under” 3-1 away TY and “under” 9-3 on road since ‘07. Jets “under” 13-8-1 last 22 on board since early ‘07. Tech edge-Rams and “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

SEATTLE at MIAMI...Seattle has covered its last 2 on road after 3-8 spread mark previous 11 as visitor. Seattle “over” 5-3 TY, “over” 8-3 last 11 since late ‘07; Miami “over” 7-4 as host since LY (but “under” 1-3 at home for Sparano TY). Tech edge- “Over”, based on “totals” trends.

GREEN BAY at MINNESOTA...Pack has won and covered last 3 meetings, including opener at Lambeau. Pack “over” 9-3 last 12 on road. Tech edge-slight to “over”, based on Pack road “totals” trends

CAROLINA at OAKLAND...Panthers “under” 15-8-1 since start of ‘07. Raiders only 12-31-1 vs. line as host since ‘03. Tech edge-Panthers and slight to “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

KANSAS CITY at SAN DIEGO...Chiefs have covered 3 of last 5 in series, although Bolts 6-3 vs. line last 9 meetings. Herm surprising 8-4 vs. line away (all as dog) since LY. Norv 9-2 as home chalk since LY, although one of those losses was vs. Chiefs. Tech edge slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.

INDIANAPOLIS at PITTSBURGH...Indy “over” last 3 away, Steel “over” 2-1 first 3 at home TY, now “over” 43-15-1 last 59 at Heinz Field since late ‘01. Tech edge-“Over”, based on “totals” trends.

NY GIANTS at PHILADELPHIA...Giants have won and covered last 3 meetings, all “under” as well. G-Men 10-1 vs. line last 11 away from Meadowlands. Andy Reid still just 5-9 vs. spread last 14 as host. Tech edge-Giants and slight to “under”, based on team and “totals” trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA (Monday, November 10)...Note that visiting team 6-0-1 vs. line last 7 in series, with 49ers covering last 3 trips to desert. SF, however, no wins or covers last 5 in ‘08, and Cards have won and covered their last 4 at U of P Stadium. Cards “over” 23-7 last 30 on board. Tech edge-“Over" and slight to 49ers, based on “totals” and series road trends.


NFL SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK
NFL COACH AS UNDERDOG-DENVER over Cleveland (11/06),
BUFFALO over New England, GREEN BAY* over Minnesota@,
INDIANAPOLIS over Pittsburgh, NEW ORLEANS* ove Atlanta@, TENNESSEE*
over Chicago, and dog in NY GIANTS-PHILADELPHIA game.

FAMILIARITY-ATLANTA over New Orelans, MINNESOTA over Green Bay, PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants.

NFL BLOWOUT BOUNCEBACK-OAKLAND over Carolina.

NFL BLOWOUT LETDOWN-PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants.

 

[yukonprince]

Hi everyone...

Thank you all for the Powersweep links and posting the other newsletters.

I am a senior on fixed income and I am in with 19 others each putting in $5 a week (stop laughing hee, hee) into the NFL pool.

I have cleaned up three times so far this year thanks to all the newsletter advice found here!!!

I have been very wise with the winnings - declaring two with the missus and buying her a nice present. I have so far forgotten to tell her about win number three - ahem - but have told her I will take her to Montanas Steakhouse for dinner with my next win...

...Peter

 

[DancesWSheep]

THE GOLDSHEET EXTRA COLLEGES


TECHNICAL PLAYS OF THE WEEK

BOISE STATE
Series trends are certainly in Boise State’s favor when the afternoon. Boise has won and covered its last 7 meetings vs. the Utags, including one-sided 52 and 39-point romps the past two seasons. And over the last decade, there hasn’t been a better home favorite than the Broncos, now a stellar 36-15 vs. the line as host since 1998. And Boise’s recent “AFS” (“Away From Spread”) number of +18.50 its last two games rates as one of the
nation’s best. Meanwhile, note that USU has failed to cover its last 3 as a road dog.

CLEMSON
It’s no longer the Bowden Bowl since Tommy resigned (forced or otherwise) at Clemson, but series trends still favor the Tigers for Saturday’s ACC showdown at Florida State. Remember, Clemson has won and covered the last 3 and 4 of the last 5 series meetings, and after last week’s win at Boston College, qualifies as a featured Streakbuster-Win recommendation this week, as well as a Power Underdog. On the other hand, the Seminoles have been most unreliable lately as Tallahassee chalk, dropping 14 of their
last 20 spread decisions as a favorite at Doak Campbell Stadium.

LOUISVILLE
There’s no question that Pittsburgh has been a very formful pointspread entity for the past few years under HC Dave Wannstedt. That’s especially true when the Panthers have been laying points at Heinz Field, which they have to do again for Saturday’s Big East battle against Louisville. Indeed, Pitt has been unreliable lately as home chalk, standing 2-10-1 its last 13.
And series trends favor the visiting Cardinals, who have won and covered the last three meetings.

SAN JOSE STATE
Team and series trends stack up in San Jose State’s favor when the Spartans play host to Louisiana Tech at Spartan Stadium Saturday night. That’s because the Spartans have had the pointspread edge on the Bulldogs in recent meetings, covering the last four. It’s also because San Jose has performed so admirably as a home favorite lately, covering its last 6 tries as home chalk, as well as 9 of its last 10 overall as host. And there
is no reason to fear La Tech, especially on the road, where the Bulldogs have dropped all four tries vs. the line in ‘08, and now 4-19 as a visiting dog since late in the ‘04 campaign.

MARYLAND at VIRGINIA TECH (Thursday, November 6)...Ralph just 5-10 vs. line last 15 as visitor. Beamer 0-2 vs. line at Blacksburg TY, 2-6 last 8 as host (all as chalk). Hokies also 2-6 vs. line last 8 on board. Tech edge-slight to VT, based one xtended Ralph road woes.


TCU at UTAH (Thursday, November 6)...Utes just 1-2 vs. line at home TY after 8-3 mark previous 11 as host. Frogs 11-3 vs. number last 14 on board (7-2 TY) and 6-3-1 as short since ‘05. Tech edge-slight to TCU, based on recent trends.


NEVADA at FRESNO STATE (Friday, November 7)...Dog has covered last 3 in series, although Wolf Pack has lost SU last 4 trips to Bulldog Stadium. Fresno no covers last 7 in ‘08 and 3-13 vs. spread last 16 at Bulldog Stadium. Pat Hill also 3-18 last 21 as chalk. Tech edge-Nevada, based on Fresno spread woes.

SYRACUSE at RUTGERS...Rutgers has won and covered big the last 3 meetings. Scarlet Knights have also covered last 4 as series host, most of those before the team became any good. Robinson 6-14 vs. line last 20 on board, 1-2 as road dog TY. Schiano on 4-game cover streak. Tech edge-Rutgers, based on series trends.

WISCONSIN at INDIANA...Badgers have bullied Hoosiers last 2 meetings, winning and covering each by 30 or more. IU had failed to cover first 4 at Bloomington TY until Northwestern. Tech edge slight to UW, based on series trends.

OHIO STATE at NORTHWESTERN...OSU has dominated, winning by huge margins the last 3 meetings (NU never closer than 41!). Road team has covered the last 6 Buckeye games TY, including OSU’s last 2 as visitor. Tech edge-OSU, based on recent series trends.

PURDUE at MICHIGAN STATE...Dog team has covered last 4 in series (teams didn’t meet, however, in ‘03-04). Tiller only 2-5 vs. line last 7 in farewell tour, but MSU has failed to cover its last 3 at home. Still, Dantonio 20-11-3 overall vs. spread since ‘05 with Cincy & MSU. Tech edge-MSU, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Tech has won last 3 meetings but failed to cover any of those, or the last 4 in series. Paul Johnson, however, is 6-1 vs. line TY (2-0 as dog), 3-0 vs. line as visitor, and 18-5 last 23 as dog away from home with Navy & GT! Tech edge-GT, based on Paul Johnson trends.

ILLINOIS vs. WESTERN MICHIGAN (at Ford Field, Detroit)... Zook just 1-3 as chalk TY and 1-8 vs. line last 9 vs. non-Big Ten opposition! Tech edge-slight to WMU, based on Illini non-conference woes.

VIRGINIA at WAKE FOREST...Cavs hot, 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5 TY. UVa also turned around long road drought, winning at GT after 9-25 spread mark previous 34 as visitor. Wake no covers last 3 TY, and if Wake chalk note 8-20-2 mark in role at Winston-Salem since ‘98. Tech edge-slight to Virginia, based on recent trends.

NC STATE at DUKE...If NCS chalk note this will be Wolfpack’s first chance in role TY; O’Brien 1-2 in role LY but Wolfpack 7-22 as chalk since ‘03 (mostly Amato). Cutcliffe 3-1 vs. line at home TY. Tech edge-Duke, especially if dog, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA STATE at TEXAS TECH...Three straight series covers for OSU, although Cowboys winless in 6 tries as series visitor since Big XII was formed (counts ‘96 game at Dallas). OSU 8-0 vs. line TY and has covered last 9 on board since late ‘07. Tech edge slight to OSU, based on recent trends.

FLORIDA at VANDERBILT...Dores haven’t won SU vs. Gators since ‘88, but they have covered 4 of last 6 in series. Vandy still 6-2 vs. line TY and Bobby Johnson 2-0 as home dog in ‘08. Urban Meyer has covered last 5 as visitor (not counting neutral sites and bowls) and Gators 11-1 vs. line last 11, and 13-2 last 15 regular-season games. Tech edge-slight to Florida, based on recent trends.

ARKANSAS at SOUTH CAROLINA...Arkansas has covered its last 4 TY including its last 2 as visitor. Hogs have also won and covered last 2 and 5 of last 6 vs. Gamecocks. Tech edge- Arkansas, based on recent trends.

GEORGIA at KENTUCKY...UGa has won and covered 5 of last 6 in series although Dawgs lost at Lexington (24-20 in ‘06) in last visit. Cats just 1-6 vs. number last 7 at Commonwealth Stadium, while Dawgs 5-1 vs. spread last 6 away from Athens. Tech edge-Georgia, based on series and team trends.

BOWLING GREEN at OHIO...Falcons 5-0 vs. line as visitor TY, 8-0 last 8 away since late LY!. BGSU had also covered 9 of last 10 in series and last 5 at Athens! Tech edge-BGSU, based on team and series trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at BYU...Aztecs no covers last 2 or 6 of last 7 in series. Aztecs no covers last 4 on road TY, now 5-12 vs. spread last 17 on road. Bronco, however, no covers last 5 TY. Tech edge-BYU, based on series and anti-Aztec trends.

UTAH STATE at BOISE STATE...All Boise lately, with wins and covers last 7 meetings. Tech edge-Boise, based on team and series trends.

OKLAHOMA at TEXAS A&M...Sooners have actually failed to cover 3 of last 4 in series and dropped their last 2 spread decisions at Kyle Field. OU, however, hasn’t lost SU vs. A&M since ‘02. Sooners have covered first 3 as visitor TY and Stoops 3-0 laying 20 or more TY. Ags have covered last 3 overall. Tech edge-slight to OU, based on team trends.

ARMY at RICE...Army 5-1 vs. line last 6 on board. Rice, however, is solid 4-0 as chalk TY. Owls have also covered last 4 as host since late LY. Tech edge-slight to Rice, based on recent trends.

IOWA STATE at COLORADO...Both have cooled, especially CU with no covers its last 6 games. ISU no covers its last 4 games. Home team has covered the last 3 in series, however. Tech edge-slight to CU, based on recent series home trend.

MEMPHIS at SMU...After failing to cover all 6 as host LY, SMU is 2-1 vs. line at home in ‘08 for June Jones. Rare road chalk role for Memphis. Tigers just 1-3 vs. line away TY. Tech edge-slight to SMU, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at MISSOURI...Mizzou has won and covered last 2 meetings by similar scores (41-21 & 49-32) after taking a beating from Bill Snyder’s KSU in the previous decade. Pinkel is 11-5-1 vs. number last 17 at Faurot Field. Tech edge-Mizzou, based on team and recent series trends.

CLEMSON at FLORIDA STATE...No longer the Bowden Bowl. Tommy Bowden had owned his papa Bobby lately, winning and covering last 3 and 4 of last 5 meetings. Noles just 5-9 as Tallahassee chalk since '06 and 6-14 last 20 in role since late '04. Tech edge-Clemson, based on series trends.

MARSHALL at EAST CAROLINA...Herd still laboring on road, just 1-3 vs. spread away TY after 4-18 previous 22 away from Huntington. Skip 7-3 as Greenville chalk since ‘06. Tech edge-ECU, based on team trends.

KANSAS at NEBRASKA...Kansas has turned around this series (covered last 4) but Jayhawks still haven’t won at Lincoln since 1968. Bo Pelini just 2-4 vs. line at home TY and Huskers only 4-9 as host since LY (1-2 as home dog that span). Mangino 7-1 vs. line away from home since LY (2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to KU, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at IOWA...Iowa is 6-3-1 vs. line last 10 as underdog. Shades, however, has covered 7 of 8 on board TY and 8 of last 9 since late ‘07. Shades has also covered last 4 laying points away from Happy Valley. Tech edge-slight to Shades, based on recent trends.

NOTRE DAME at BOSTON COLLEGE...Irish have lost last 5 SU vs. BC, Although ND has covered two of those (including 27-14 loss LY). Tech edge-BC, based on series trends.

WYOMING at TENNESSEE...Wyo 1-7 vs. line TY and 1-15-1 last 17. Vols 2-1 as home chalk TY, and have covered 4 of last 5 laying 19 or more. Tech edge-UT, based on Wyo woes.

ALABAMA at LSU...This has been a road-oriented series, with visitor 7-1-2 vs. line last 10, 9-1-2 last 12, 12-2-2 last 16 meetings. Tide has covered 7 of last 8 at Baton Rouge, although Bama hasn’t been favored in series since ‘02 (won 31-0 as 1½-point chalk). Tigers no covers first 4 as host TY and just 1-8 against number last 9 at home. Nicky has covered first 4 away from home TY (last 5 since end of ‘07). Tech edge-Bama, based on team and series road trends.

STANFORD at OREGON...Oregon has won and covered 6 straight in series since Ty’s last Tree team dealt Ducks their only loss of ‘01, 49-42. Ducks 13-7 vs. line as host since ‘05. Tree just 1-4 vs. line away TY, 1-6 last 7 as visitor. Tech edge-Oregon, based on team and series trends.

ARIZONA STATE at WASHINGTON...Ty has dropped last 6 and 7 of 8 against line TY. ASU has won and covered last 4 in series, although 5 of last 6 meetings have taken place in Tempe. Tech edge-ASU, based on series trends.

HAWAII at NEW MEXICO STATE...NMSU no covers first 3 as host TY (all as dog). Tech edge-slight to UH, based on team trends.

TULANE at HOUSTON...UH has won and covered last 5 in series, all by 21 or more! Wave, however, has covered first 3 as visitor TY. Tech edge-slight to UH, based on series trends.

COLORADO STATE at AIR FORCE...CSU pretty formful TY, failing to cover first 4 away from Fort Collins while 4-0 vs. line at home at Hughes Stadium. Meanwhile, Troy Calhoun 7-1 vs. line at home since taking over at AFA LY. Tech edge-Air Force, based on team trends.

OREGON STATE at UCLA...Beavs have had their problems lately vs. UCLA, losing and failing to cover last 5, the last 3 of those by 18 or more. Riley 7-4 as road chalk since ‘03. Bruins’ extended spread numbers are still pretty good (37-19-1 last 57 on board since early ‘04). Bruins 4-1 vs. line at Rose Bowl TY, 20-5 last 25 as host! Tech edge-UCLA, based on series and team trends.

ARIZONA at WASHINGTON STATE...Cougs on course for epic spread run, having dropped first 8 games on board TY! Arizona has covered last 5 in series anyway. Tech edge-UA, based on team and series trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at CENTRAL FLORIDA...UCF has covered last 2 meetings, and Golden Knights 7-2-1 vs. line last 10 as host (6-2-1 in new stadium since LY). Tech edge-UCF, based on team and series trends.

BAYLOR at TEXAS...Baylor hasn’t been closer than 21 the last 9 vs. Texas, but Bears a bit more competitive TY for Art Briles (5-2 vs. line last 7 games). Baylor 2-1 as road dog TY, but 0-1 getting 20 or more. Horns are 4-0 laying 20 or more in ‘08. Tech edge-Texas, based on team and series trends.

CINCINNATI at WEST VIRGINIA...Cincy 1-3 vs. line away TY after 5-1 mark as visitor for Brian Kelly LY. Bearcats, however, 4-1 as dog for Kelly, and 8-3-1 last 12 in role since ‘06. Tech edge-Cincy, based on team trends.

LOUISVILLE at PITT...‘Stache hasn’t won last 3 years vs. Cards but did get cover LY. Pitt 0-3-1 vs. line as host TY, 2-10-1 last 13 at Heinz Field! Tech edge-UL, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at MINNESOTA...Rodriguez a poor 1-8 vs. line in Michigan debut! Tech edge-Minnesota, based on recent trends.

CAL at SOUTHERN CAL...Tedford just 1-5 as dog since ‘05 after 11-3-1 mark as short his first three years on job. Cal also 2-9 vs. line last 11 as visitor (1-2 TY). Pete 9-3-1 last 13 on board since late ‘07. Tech edge-slight to SC, based on team trends.

LA TECH at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU has covered last 4 in series, winning by DD margins last 2 as series host. Spartans 9-1 vs. line last 10 as host, and 6-0 last 6 as home chalk. LT 0-4 vs. line away TY, now 4-19 last 23 as visiting dog! Tech edge-SJSU, based on team and series trends.

NEW MEXICO at UNLV...Rocky has won last 3 and covered last 4 as series visitor. Rocky also 7-2 vs. line against UNLV. Rocky now 23-11 against number last 34 as visitor. Tech edge-UNM, based on team and series trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at TROY...Troy 15-5-2 last 22 on board. Hilltoppers just 1-5 vs. line last 6 on board. Tech edge-Troy, based on recent trends.

NORTH TEXAS at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Schnellenberger 2-1 as chalk TY and 8-3 as favorite since ‘06. Tech edge-FAU, based on team and series trends.

UTEP at UL-LAFAYETTE...Ragin’ Cajuns on serious uptick with 7 straight covers, including covers last 5 as chalk! UTEP just 2-6 vs. line TY and 3-9 last 12 on board. Tech edge-ULL, based on recent trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL...Red Wolves just 1-3 as chalk TY and now 4-9 in role since ‘06. Tech edge-FIU, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU only 1-4 last 5 on board TY and no covers first 2 as chalk. Weatherbie 16-8-1 vs. number as visitor since ‘05 (2-2 TY), also 14-7-1 as road dog since ‘05. Tech edge-ULM, based on team trends.


COLLEGE SYSTEM PLAYS THIS WEEK

COACH & POINTSPREAD-BALL STATE over Northern Illinois (11/
05), TCU over Utah (11/06), VIRGINIA TECH over Maryland (11/06),
ARKANSAS over South Carolina, BYU over San Diego State, CINCINNATI
over West Virginia, EAST CAROLINA over Marshall, GEORGIA
TECH over North Carolina, KANSAS over Nebraska, UL-MONROE
over Middle Tennessee, MICHIGAN ST. over Purdue, MISSOURI over
Kansas State, OHIO STATE over Northwestern, OREGON over Stanford.

COLLEGE COACH AS UNDERDOG-CINCINNATI over West Virginia,
GEORGIA TECH over North Carolina, UL-MONROE oveer Middle
Tennessee, NC STATE* over Duke, UTEP over UL-Lafayette, UCLA
over Oregon State, and WAKE FOREST* over Virginia.
RIVALRY DOGS-No plays this week.

POWER UNDERDOGS-TCU over Utah (11/06), CAL over Southern
Cal, CINCINNATI over West Virginia, CLEMSON over Florida State,
GEORGIA TECH over North Carolina, IOWA over Penn State,
KENTUCKY over Georgia, MICHIGAN over Minnesota, OKLAHOMA
STATE over Texas Tech, UCLA over Oregon State, WAKE FOREST*
over Virginia, and dog in ALABAMA-LSU game.


PAINFUL MEMORY-OREGON STATE over UCLA.

POWER REVENGE-ALABAMA over Lsu.

RESTED HOME WINNERS-BALL STATE over Northern Illinois (11/
05), AKRON over Toledo, FLORIDA ATLANTIC voer North texas,
NORTH CAROLINA over Georgia Tech, RUTGERS over Syracuse.

 

[beachboy+]

Red Sheet

2008, VOL 40, NO 11 -- RATINGS: 89 & ABOVE: SUPERIOR; 88 & BELOW: ABOVE AVERAGE

Oklahoma State 48 - TEXAS TECH 40 - (8:00 EST) -- Line opened at TexasTech minus 3, and is still minus
3. No, this isn't a knee-jerk call for the classical letdown theory, altho one is surely tempted
to predict such a result. Bucking the Raiders' 559 ypg offense, is frightening, indeed, but
the 8th-ranked Cowboys check in with the 7th-best "O", & are just 1.7 ppg behind sizzling
Tech. Everyone knows that OkieSt, which was just a play from also defeating Texas (in
Austin), is perfect vs the pts. Taking down Harrell, Crabtree, & Co is a mighty task, but OSt
QB Robinson ranks 2nd, & 'Pokes more balanced. An epic upset!
RATING: OKLAHOMA STATE 89

North Carolina State 31 - DUKE 23 - (3:30) -- Line opened at Duke minus 5, and is now minus 4½. Slight
line movement means virtually nothing. The Wolfpack has dropped 4 straight games on the
field, but has extended BostonCollege, FloridaSt, & Maryland (combined 17-7 SU) in its last
3 games, with QB Wilson a bit of a force. Our "Wise Points" column on Pointwise shows
that NCSt has won the last 10 SU in this series, & no better time to catch the Imps, than off
their bruising OT loss to WakeForest. The dog has covered 10 of the last 14 games involving
NCSt, & Duke lost its last home game 49-31 (15-pt ATS loss). ACC dog.
RATING: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 89

BYU 66 - San Diego State 3 - (2:00) -- Line opened at BYU minus 35½, and is now minus 36½. Yes, we
know that the weight on this one is extremely hefty, but the Aztecs taking their place alongside
the Cougars of WashingtonSt, as automatic "go-against" plays. Check out a scoring
deficit of 45-9 ppg in their last 4 RGs, losing those 4 by no less than 96 pts ATS! Sure, 8-
1 BYU is in off a couple of draining efforts, winning in the final 1:45 & 0:22, while having
AirForce & Utah on deck, but don't forget their earlier 3-0 home run, when they outscored
UCLA, Wyoming, & NewMex by a combined score of 124-3. Hall burns it up.
RATING: BYU 88

COLORADO 38 - Iowa State 17 - (1:30) -- Line opened at Colorado minus 9, and is now minus 10. Don't
know when the Buffaloes needed a win so badly. They've been held to a dismal 12 ppg in
their last 5 games, with a 202-80 pt deficit in their last 6 outings. Opening at 3-0, they now
stand at 4-5, with this one a must affair. And the Cyclones provide the perfect elixir, with
their 42 ppg defense over their last 6 games, & are in off a 59-pt, 682-yd defensive effort. In
last week's tight loss to TexasA&M, note the Buffaloes with a 100-RY edge. You can throw
in the revenge factor, as CU lost in heartbreaking fashion LY. Comfortable win.
RATING: COLORADO 88

SAN JOSE STATE 36 - Louisiana Tech 14 - (8:00) -- Line opened at SanJoseSt minus 8½, and is still minus
8½. No, we aren't about to let this one get away. We've been on the Spartans in the host
role for the past 3 seasons, with overwhelming success. They are an amazing Plus 177½
pts ATS since the '06 campaign, while the Bulldogs (who were a rated play on Pointwise
last week) do their part with their current 5-23 ATS mark as road dogs. As a matter of fact,
the host is 8-0 ATS, by 93½ pts, in LaTech's last 8 lined contests. Again!
RATING: SAN JOSE STATE 88

Baltimore 27 - HOUSTON 20 - (1:00) -- Line opened at Houston minus 2½, and is now minus 1½. As we
stated on Pointwise, the fact that the Texans have been posted as chalks in this meeting, is
a bit puzzling. Sure, Houston has been an under-the-radar home force recently, with a
sensational 31 ppg scoring average in their last 9 hosters. But in this one, they take on the
2nd best defense in the NFL, & will be doing it without their superb QB Matt Schaub, who
went out last week, with a knee injury. And, defensively, the Texans rank 26th in scoring.
Check a 525-182 RY edge for the Ravens, in their last 3 games. A mild upset.
RATING: BALTIMORE 88

NEAR CHOICES (Rated 87): Missouri, Arizona, SoMiss, AirForce, Texas - NFL: Chargers, Packers, Cards

LINE MOVES (from largest to smallest moves): Arizona (-38 to -40); Tcu (-1 to -2½); Mich (+9 to +7½);
Texas (-24 to -25½) - NFL: NwEng (-3 to -4); Balt (+2½ to +1½); SF (+11 to +10); Jets (-7 to -8); Caro (-7½
to -8½); SD (-13½ to -14½) - TIME CHANGES: Va/WF: 3:30; OklaSt/TxTech: 8:00; Okla/A&M: 3:30; Rice/
Army: 3:00; Colo/IowaSt: 1:30; Mo/KanSt: 7:00; Kans/Neb: 2:30; Houston/Tulane: 8:00; Tex/Baylor: 12:00 -
KEY INJURIES: Ala RB Coffee: probable; Cal QB Riley (concussion) ??; CentMich QB LeFevour (ankle)
prob; Colo RB Stewart (leg) out; Fla QB Tebow (foot) prob; FlaSt RB Smith (ribs) prob; Fresno RB Mathews
(knee) doubtful; GaTech QB Nesbitt (ankle) ??; Houston WR Edwards (leg) out; Indiana QB Lewis (ankle)
??; L'Ville RB Bolen (undisclosed) ??; LSU RB Scott (ankle) prob; MD RB Scott (shoulder) ??; MichSt RB
Ringer (illness) prob; Minnesota WR Decker (ankle) prob; N'Western QB Bacher (hamstring) ??; N'Western
RB Sutton (wrist) out; Okla WR Johnson (elbow) prob; OregSt QB Moevao (shoulder) ??; PennSt QB Clark
(concussion) prob; Pitt QB Stull (concussion) prob; Purdue QB Painter (shoulder) ??; SanJose QB Reed
(tailbone) ??; SJSt RB Davis (ankle) ??; SoMiss RB Fletcher (hamstring) ??; SCaro QB Garcia (leg) prob;
Monroe QB Lancaster (leg) prob; UNLV QB Clayton (leg) doubtful; VaTech QBs Glennon & Taylor (ankles)
??: WF RB Adams (ankle) ??; - NFL: Chicago QB Orton (ankle) doubtful; Houston QB Schaub (knee) out;
Pittsburgh QB Roethlisberger (shoulder) ??; Seattle QB Hasselbeck (back) doubtful

 

[tgunn11]

Marc Lawrence’s
THE PLAYBOOK

Volume 23, Issue 12 November 4-10, 2008

Pro

Pro

Thursday, November 6th

Denver over CLEVELAND by 1
Thursday night matchup of two teams in dire straits pairs conference rivals
with a storied history. Counting Art Modell’s old Browns and the new, the
Broncos are 16-2 SU in the last 18 games against Cleveland (3-0 versus the
new; 13-2 against the old), including 8-0 ATS when taking points. That ties
nicely into Mike Shanahan’s 8-1-1 ATS career mark as a dog when his team is
.500 or less and off back-to-back losses. Meanwhile, the Browns have caved
to the fans’ desires and will be operating with Brady Quinn at quarterback
in his NFL starting debut. While we believe Quinn will win the job on a
full-time basis and have a solid career, the timing is suspect and borders on
panic. Finally, this nugget from our database: sub .500 home favorites off a
SU favorite loss taking on an opponent also off a SU favorite loss are 5-16-1
ATS if the host lost to the spread by 10 or more points in its loss. We’ll walk
the dog here tonight.

Sunday, November 9th

Jacksonville over DETROIT by 4
Two teams adept at finding ways to lose go at it in the Motor City with each
in need of a tourniquet. After a 12-win campaign in 2007, this year’s Jaguars
are just 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS with the underdog ringing the register in all
eight games. The Lions continue the quest of their first win of the season,
blowing a 10-point halftime lead in a 27-23 loss at Chicago last week. Some
small solace came in the form of Detroit’s first stat win of the season. Until
Jacko can be trusted laying wood anywhere against anyone, we’ll fade them
and their 0-7 ATS mark as a favorite of 6 or more points against an opponent
off an away game.

5* BEST BET
CHICAGO over Tennessee by 10
By the fuzz hair on Kerry Collins’ chin, the Titans remain unscathed
following last week’s overtime win at home against the Packers. The
first crack in the armor occurred, however, when Tennessee lost the
money for the initial time this season. Will they be like the Patriots
of last year who went on a 2-8 ATS free fall following their first
pointspread defeat of the season or more like the ’06 Titans that went
10-2 ATS in their final 12 games of the season? We think the former,
especially as long as the perfect bulls-eye is adorning the Titans’
uniforms. Our notion is confirmed by the fact that undefeated teams
during the second half of the season are just 2-8 ATS when favored
in non-division games against an opponent off a win this decade.
Tennessee’s tendency as a road favorite of 3 or less points in games off
a win clinches it as the Titans are just 4-14 SU and 1-14-3 ATS in this role
before Game Fifteen of the season. As our friends south of the border
would say, “Adios mi perfecto amigo!”

3* BEST BET
NEW ENGLAND over Buffalo by 14
The Pats laid the Bills out both times last season, winning 56-10 and
38-7. In fact, in the last 9 games in this series, Buffalo has not scored
more than 17 points in ANY game, averaging less than ten points
per contest. With both teams tied atop the AFC East Division (along
with the Jets) this game becomes critical. And when games are as
important as this we opt to rely on the best big game coach in the biz,
Bill Belichick. Like the sun on a nude beach in South Florida, he shines
in division play, especially against an opponent off back-to-back losses
where his teams are 17-6 ATS throughout his head-coaching career,
including 10-1 ATS at home. With the wheels beginning to come off
for the Bills (outgained in 4 of their last 5 games), it’s time to butter up
the buns. This looks like a butt kicking.

New Orleans over ATLANTA by 3
Saints return to American soil following their 37-32 upset win over the
Chargers in London two weeks ago looking to dig their way out of the NFC
South Division cellar. Despite its 4-4 record, and thanks to its No. 1 ranked
offense, New Orleans has outgained 6 of its 8 opponents in 2008. A win
today is absolutely critical to their post-season chances. Atlanta returns
home off last week’s walkover win at Oakland knowing they are 1-10 ATS
off a DD ATS win when facing a .500 or greater foe. Given their success in
this series (4-1 ATS last 5 games here), we see the Saints marching to victory
in Atlanta today.

NY JETS over St. Louis by 4
Ever so quietly the Jets have played themselves into a tie for the top spot in
the AFC East Division. And like Smith Barney, after checking out their team
log, they’ve earned it. Since the Bye Week, Brett’s bunch has outgained
all four opponents. Today, though, they find themselves smack dab in the
middle of a division sandwich, off a Buffalo revenger with a revenge affair up
next with New England. The Rams enter off back-to-back losses knowing they
have won the money each of the last nine games in this series, winning eight
games straight-up on the field. Noting the Flyboys 0-13 ATS mark at home in
games before the Patriots when taking on an opponent off a loss and their
1-10 ATS record against NFC squads off back-to-back losses, we’re compelled
to do the right thing and grab the points. Oblige yourself and do the same.

MIAMI over Seattle by 6
A terrific job by Tony and the Tuna this season. After tasting victory just once
in 2007 they are in position to make a run at the playoffs at the midway point
of the season. Our problem with their success is the price the linesmaker is
making them pay. They’ve been favored only one time (-3) under Sparano
and that resulted in a 27-13 loss. To further validate our contention, we
point out the fact that NFL favorites of 7 or more points who won 1 or
less games the previous year are 11-30 ATS in non-division games, including
3-15 ATS when playing off a SU and ATS win. Yikes! While Seattle is down
more than Dow Jones, the truth of the matter is the Seahawks are 11-3 ATS
as dogs off a double-digit SU and ATS loss versus a .500 or less opponent,
including 8-0 ATS if Seattle’s win percentage is .250 or less. Fish get the win.
Seahawks get the green.

MINNESOTA over Green Bay by 3
These two division rivals opened the 2008 season in Green Bay where the
Packers emerged victorious, 24-19, despite being outgained by the Vikings.
That would normally set the table in the rematch but not today. Not with
Minny limping in off an ‘inside-out’ win over Houston and the Packers off an
‘inside-out’ loss at Tennessee last week. With the Cheeseheads dominating
this series of late (6-0-1 ATS last seven games) and the Vikings owning the
superior running game, we’ll put this game on hold for the time being.

Carolina over OAKLAND by 6
Talk about laying an egg: the Waffl e House is in heavy negotiations with Al
Davis to assume operations of the ruinous Raider franchise. Just 3 fi rst downs
in last week’s 24-0 home loss to the Falcons probably sealed Tom Cable’s
chances of being on anyone’s permanent head coaching short list. Since
taking over for Lane Kiffin four weeks ago, Cable’s crew has been outgained
in every contest by an average of 209 YPG. Not much to like about the
Black-n-Silver other than the fact that home dogs tend to bounce back with
a vengeance off a home loss of 24 or more points, going 30-17 ATS, including
25-10 when off back-to-back defeats. With Carolina’s propensity for gagging
on chalk, we’ll put a call into the Cable Guy to clear up this picture.

SAN DIEGO over Kansas City by 10
Before jumping off the high board in support of the Chargers the 2nd half of
this season, be advised: there is no lifeguard on duty, not with Norv Turner
calling the shots. In other words, you’re on your own. You should also be
aware of the fact that the Chiefs are 19-6 SU and 19-4-2 ATS in division
games when playing off a loss in which they allowed 30 or more points,
including a perfect 5-0 ATS as a dog of 5 or more points! Also be advised
that Turner is a certified money-burner at home in division games off a loss
in his NFL career, going 7-15 ATS, including 0-6 SU and ATS this decade. Read
the signs: no diving.

PITTSBURGH Over Indianapolis by 1
Steelers dominating win over the Redskins Monday night vaults them back
into prominence in the AFC. The Colts’ struggling win over the Patriots keeps
them on the watch list. Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger’s questionable status
puts this game on hold for the time being. What appeared to be a marquee
game on this week’s schedule has seen the luster wear off. If you must
plunge, you need to know that Tony Dungy is 14-5 ATS in his NFL career as
a dog off a win versus a non-division foe of a SU and ATS win. With Peyton
Manning 109-59 SU as a starter during the regular season, we’d point to the
points.

4* BEST BET
PHILADELPHIA over NY Giants by 14
The 7-1 Giants invade the 5-3 Eagles in a key NFC East division dukeout
at Lincoln Financial Field. Last year the G-Men upset Philadelphia
two times. It not only propelled New York into the playoffs and
onto a Super Bowl victory but it also denied the Eagles a spot in the
postseason. It’s atonement day today and Andy Reid is ready to rumble.
That’s because in his career Reid is 19-8-1 ATS with division revenge,
including 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS when off back-to-back SU and ATS
wins. The Eagle defense chips in, too, having held three foes to season
low yardage this season. On the other side of the coin, the Giants are
2-13 ATS in November in games against an opponent off a double digit
win. While the Giants have met with solid success on the road of
late, we can’t dismiss the loss they suffered in Cleveland and the fact
that they allowed both the Browns and the Bengals season high yards
this season. Stay at home with Andy and his high-flying birds.

Baltimore over HOUSTON by 3
Hurricane Ike leaves his print on another rescheduled NFL game this Sunday
when the Ravens take on the Texans. This marks the 5th home game in 6
weeks for Houston while the Ravens take to the road for the 4th time in
5 weeks, thus a schedule maker’s edge goes to the Texans. Our problem
is laying points into a defense that is 83 YPG superior. And we never like
coughing up points with one team that has never beat nor been favored
against the other. There are plusses on both sides of this game, for sure. The
bottom line, though, is when in doubt… go with fido.

Monday, November 10th

ARIZONA over San Francisco by 6
Who would have ever thunk it? The Cardinals sitting atop the NFC West
division standings with a THREE GAME lead at the halfway point of the
season! Now instead of the hunter they become the hunted. Welcome to
the world of Richard Kimble, my friend. From this point forward they will
be tested, that you can believe. The first exam comes in this game when
they put their 0-11 ATS mark on the line as a .500 or greater team at home
against a division opponent. There’s also this 0-8 ATS mark as favorites of 7 or
more points over the last 15 years to ponder. Toss in Frisco’s 7-0 ATS log with
division revenge when playing off back-to-back losses and suddenly we’ve
got a test paper that looks like aces in all the right places. Results to follow.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK
selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a
strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

 

[tgunn11]

Marc Lawrence’s
THE PLAYBOOK

Volume 23, Issue 12 November 4-10, 2008

College

Tuesday, November 4th

BUFFALO over Miami Ohio by 3
Wow. A win for Buffalo here will assure the Bulls of no worse than a tie for
first in the MAC East where not a single team can claim a winning record,
either SU or in conference play. With Miami Ohio sitting at 2-6 on the year
and hosting Ball State next week, the RedHawks are fading faster than the
Bush Administration’s legacy. Even so, we think the Bulls are a bit overpriced
at -8 points… especially since Buffalo has been a series dog for nine straight
meetings by an average spread of +21.5! Buffalo has also gone 0-9 SU in
those games, a stat that gains importance when we get a look at Miami’s
8-1 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS loss when tackling a .500 or greater foe.
No, the RedHawks aren’t bargains but the Bulls are just 1-3 ATS as chalk this
year, covering against UTEP in the season opener and failing to cash a ticket
in their next three tries as favorites. Buffi e’s less-than-inspiring 2-6 mark ‘In
The Stats’ (lost the last fi ve in a row) seals the deal. Bulls win but RedHawks
fly off with the money.

Wednesday, November 5th

BALL ST over No Illinois by 6
It’s easy to make fun of a team when they’re stuck in a down cycle but our
usual ‘Gonad’ jokes about Ball State are rapidly disappearing in favor of
outright astonishment. Brady Hoke’s boys from Muncie are as close to perfect
as you can get: 8-0 SU, 8-0 ITS and 6-1 ATS, with their lone ATS defeat coming
last time out versus Eastern Michigan. And with the price currently hovering
in single digits, we wouldn’t be surprised to see longer lines at BSU’s betting
window than what we’ve seen at the polls. However, as we’ve stated before,
undefeated teams feel the pressure ratchet up with every passing week and
can’t be trusted laying points late in the season. That notion is bolstered by
some great numbers favoring Northern Illinois in this matchup. The Huskies
have covered four of the last five games on this field, they’re 4-0 ATS away
off consecutive home games, they’re 5-1 ATS as weekday dogs and they’re
4-1-1 ATS lately when playing with conference revenge. But here’s what we
like best: NIU has held each of its last fi ve foes season to low – or 2nd low
– yardage. With the year Ball State QB Nate Davis is having, we wouldn’t
give the Huskies a look unless we thought they could match up defensively.
Don’t be surprised to see Jerry Kill and his Ball-busters drop the ‘Nads to 1-5
ATS playing with rest.

AKRON over Toledo by 4
Jeez, another MAC weekday game! We haven’t seen any ratings numbers
for this year’s telecasts but we wonder how ESPN can keep a straight face
when sending out invoices to game advertisers. Akron is currently stuck in a
MAC East logjam and needs a win here to keep pace with Buffalo, a feat the
Zips should manage against a Toledo team that’s come apart at the seams
in 2008. Even more troubling for Rocket fans is the recent announcement
that longtime head coach Tom Amstutz will be stepping down at season’s
end to become the school’s chief fund-raiser (what’s that all about?). Toledo
owns an uncharacteristic 0-4 SU record at home this year and has misfi red
in fi ve straight games after facing CMU. But one look at Akron’s current 0-3
SU record at home (and its 4-1 mark away) tells us why the visiting team has
cashed in six of eight Zips’ games this season. Your call.

Thursday, November 6th

VA TECH over Maryland by 4
The 6-2 Terps (#23 in the BCS poll) have overcome a schizophrenic start to
vault into the ACC Atlantic division lead and are actually just one of three
teams in the country with three wins over ranked teams. Not so at Blacksburg
where Beamer Ball is currently fl oundering. Va Tech’s 30-20 loss to Florida
State marked only the second time in 53 games where the Hokies have lost
back-to-back contests SU and a program that fi lled its supporters’ pockets
with a 32-17-1 ATS run during the previous four seasons has sunk to a
money-burning 2-5 ATS log in ’08. The fact that the Terps have won outright
in all three of their underdog appearances this season has us leaning in their
direction but there are just too many injuries surrounding the game at this
time (Maryland RB Da’Rel Scott; VT QBs Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor) to
make a defi nitive call.

UTAH over Tcu by 3
Hold on… we’re climbin’ off the fence for this one! TCU was relegated to redheaded
stepchild status in the national ‘BCS Buster’ conversation following
the Frogs’ loss to Oklahoma but the Horned Ones put the kibosh on big, bad
BYU, 32-7, and now have a chance to eliminate fellow MWC power Utah
from BCS consideration. TCU’s ferocious ‘D’ has held its previous fi ve foes to
just 8.4 PPG and they’ve limited EIGHT opponents in ’08 to season low yards,
the most of any team in division 1-A. The Froggies also would have entered
today’s showdown as a ‘SMART BOX ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ dog but they
happened to show up favored, instead. That means we’ll take a good, long
look at the Utes – and we actually like what we see. Unbeaten Utah has held
four of its foes to season low yardage while building its SU home win streak
to nine in a row. The boys from Salt Lake City also bring along a super 15-3
ATS record as dogs since 1990 when the team’s win percentage is .750 or
greater. Oh yeah, Utah has served up frog legs in two consecutive meetings
and would solidify its #8 BCS ranking with a win here. It’s red over purple in
the battle for the green…

Friday, November 7th

Nevada over FRESNO STATE by 1
A season that started with great promise for Pat Hill’s Bulldogs came crashing
down last weekend with a loss to mediocre Louisiana Tech, the third time
this year that Fresno State has come out on the short end of a 3-point fi nal.
With the WAC title now conceded to Boise State, Hill admitted that the
only thing left to play for is a bowl berth. That could be a lot easier said
than done, particularly when the 5-3 Dogs defense is getting gashed for an
ugly 5.4 YPR and the visiting Wolf Pack is toting the mail for an outstanding
average of 6.6 YPR. Advantage, Nevada. The Reno Wolves also look like
the pack to back when we note their 4-1 ATS record as a series dog and
FSU’s dismal 1-5 spread mark this season as chalk. In a game that looks to
be tighter than this week’s presidential election, we’ll take the feral dogs to
bring down their domesticated cousins.

Saturday, November 8th

RUTGERS over Syracuse by 11
Despite knocking off Louisville for its second win of the year, Syracuse still
can’t get any respect, showing up as a 2-TD underdog to the 3-5 Scarlet
Knights. Rutgers has had a week off to bask in the glory of its shocking 54-
34 destruction of Pitt but a Knights’ defense that’s forced only FIVE fumbles
all year doesn’t look like double-digit chalk material to us. True, Rutgers has
cashed in the previous three meetings with the ‘Cuse but its dreadful 0-4 ATS
record when favored this year (lost three of those games outright) will likely
keep our wallets closed. On the fl ip side, lame duck Syracuse coach Greg
Robinson is 5-0 ATS off a win of more than 6 points (not many of those in
his career!) and the Orange are taking 3 fewer points on the road here than
they did as home dogs to the Knights last year. Our only relevant thought to
this snoozer is that Robinson continues to lose so the SU administration can
FINALLY kick him into the gutter where he belongs. No interest.

Wisconsin over INDIANA by 14
Bret Bielema’s Badgers were riding a 24-5 SU streak and a #9 AP ranking
when they rolled into the Big House for Game Four of the 2008 season. But
after blowing a 19-point lead in its shocking 27-25 loss to Michigan, Wisky has
totally collapsed, plummeting to the Big 10 basement after four more defeats,
the most recent a galling, last-second choke job against Michigan State that
neatly sums up the Badgers’ disturbing year. Now Wisconsin needs to win its
two remaining conference games to become bowl eligible, a prospect still
within the realm of possibility. The Hoosiers probably won’t put up much of
a fight; riddled with injuries before last week’s back-breaking home loss to
Central Michigan, Indiana will be lucky to field enough warm bodies to avoid
a forfeit. IU’s dreadful 6-18 ATS mark in its last 24 games at Bloomington just
makes the case for the visitors even stronger. On, Wisconsin!

Ohio St over NORTHWESTERN by 14
Tied at 17, Northwestern and Minnesota were slogging along towards
overtime when the Wildcats’ Brendan Smith returned an interception 48
yards for the winning TD with just 12 seconds remaining. But the real eye opener
in NU’s 24-17 victory was the play of replacement QB Mike ‘Don’t
Call Me Franz’ Kafka, who atoned for a pair of costly picks by rambling for
217 yards on 27 carries – a school rushing record for a quarterback. However,
he’ll be witness to a defensive metamorphosis this weekend when he has to
stare down Ohio State’s big-time stop unit, a task infi nitely more challenging
than taking on the Golden Gophers. Then there’s the laundry list of strong
ATS numbers that the Buckeyes bring to the fray: 10-0 after Penn State, 9-1
away off a SU home loss and 9-2 away versus a Big 10 foe with revenge.
OSU head coach Jim Tressel – who has to be enjoying the fact that his
annual abuse of Lloyd Carr almost single-handedly led to the downfall of
the Michigan program – chips in with an 8-2 ATS mark off a loss against a
conference adversary (4-0 if favored by 4 or more points). Today’s contest is
also a rare ‘double inside-out’ matchup: the Wildcats beat Minnesota but
were outgained; the Buckeyes lost to the Nittany Lions but won the stats.
NU’s star RB Tyrell Sutton is offi cially done for the year and with Ohio State’s
offense coming off a blood-curdling 6-point effort against Penn State, we
expect the Bucks to cash their fourth straight ticket in this series. Sure, OSU
has a mega-revenger on deck with the Fighting Illini but that won’t scare us
away from this bonafi de blowout of the hobbled Mildcats.

MICHIGAN ST over Purdue by 8
Hey, misery truly DOES love company! With Purdue head coach Joe Tiller’s
Farewell Tour rapidly heading south (Boilers had dropped fi ve straight
before taking on Michigan last week), it was only fi tting that the Tillerman
share a little bit of his frustration by ending the Wolverines’ run of 33
consecutive bowl appearances. It took a hair-raising catch-and-lateral play in
the game’s closing seconds to bury Michigan but the victory keeps oxygen
pumping to Purdue’s near-hopeless shot of reaching an 11th bowl in Tiller’s
12 seasons at West Lafayette. Good numbers abound for both sides in today’s
donnybrook. The Boilermakers own a torrid 13-1 ATS mark when playing
off a SU conference home win, plus they’ve cashed in six straight Game Ten
situations. Michigan State, also the benefi ciary of a stirring comeback win last
Saturday, will be bidding farewell to the seniors at Spartan Stadium today, a
situation where they’ve grabbed the green 13 out of the past 14 times. Our
biggest problem with MSU is backing a squad playing its 11th straight game
without rest against a desperate foe (not to mention Sparty’s season-ender
with conference bear Penn State looming on the horizon). With Gang Green
possibly looking past Purdue while searching for an oxygen tank, we’d take
it or leave it.

N CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 7
We don’t know what you’ll be doing after you put down this week’s
newsletter but we’ll bet UNC head coach Butch Davis will be watching fi lm
from the Virginia-Georgia Tech game two weeks ago. While every other ACC
coach has been unable to defend Paul Johnson’s triple option offense, Al
Groh’s Wahoos held the Jackets to just 156 rushing yards and overcame a
14-3 halftime deficit by outscoring Tech 21-3 in the second half to win, 24-17.
And who knows – maybe with an extra week to prepare, Davis can put his Tar
Heel defenders in the right schemes to slow down the prolific Tech offense.
Butch pushed the proper buttons the last time out versus Boston College,
holding the Eagles to a season low 244 total yards, and the rested Heels
have kicked their way to four straight series’ covers. Our powerful database
informs us that a week of rest coupled with revenge works wonders for
conference home teams off a SU win, going 69-32-4 ATS from Game Nine
out. Considering the Yellow Jackets have been outstatted in three of their
last four games, we’ll be going to the Chapel to see Carolina make a wreck
out of Tech.

Illinois over W MICHIGAN by 3
Hmmm… Indiana loses to Central Michigan, Michigan loses to Toledo… is the
MAC closing the gap on the Big 10? That looks to be the case here. Illinois has
won outright in its last four meetings with the Mid-Americans but has had
its pockets picked in all four contests. Meanwhile, Western Michigan shows
up with a smart 4-1 ATS log as pups against the Big 10 and since the Broncos
have already earned bowl eligibility with 7 wins, they’d like nothing better
than to spoil 5-4 Illinois’ shot at reaching the postseason – certainly not a
lock with Ohio State and Northwestern waiting in the wings. Speaking of
the Buckeyes, Ron Zook’s 28-21 upset of OSU at Ohio Stadium last year was
his signature win at Champaign so he’ll have to work extra hard at keeping
his team focused on WMU here. The potential distraction of playing today’s
game at cavernous Ford Field in Detroit shouldn’t affect an Illinois squad that
opened its season versus Missouri at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis.
And if we can’t convince you to take the points with the Broncos, perhaps
we can point you toward the ‘Over’. Led by a pair of talented, up-tempo
quarterbacks in Juice Williams and Tim Hiller, the yards and points should pile
up fast, making short work of the 50.5 point OU line. Bombs away!

WAKE FOREST over Virginia by 1
The collection plates are less full these days in Winston-Salem. After posting
a profitable 16-9-1 ATS mark over the past two seasons, the Deacs have gone
right into the pointspread crapper in ‘08, losing the money in four of their
last five contests. Virginia’s miracle four-game SUATS run bit the dust last
Saturday in a 24-17 OT loss to Miami and both the Cavs and the Demon
Deacons enter this critical clash with identical 3-2 SU marks in conference
play. One of our favorite expressions is to fi nd a favorite this time of the
season that’s been outgained in each of its last three games. We call it
‘leaking oil’ and thanks to three straight stat losses, the Demon Deacons
have officially joined the Pennzoil Club. With Jim Grobe’s squad failing to
cash a single ticket in five straight clashes with the Cavs on this field and
Virginia back in its preferred role of underdog, we’ll look for the OT loser
Cavaliers to get the better of the OT winner Deacons today. A solid take.

3* BEST BET
NC State over DUKE by 7
The Blue Devils’ brief flirtation with a winning record may have
disappeared in last week’s agonizing OT loss at Wake Forest but
they’ve gained a world of respect under new coach David Cutcliffe,
having won as many games this season – four – as they did in FOUR
YEARS under previous leader Ted Roof. Things aren’t going quite as
well in Raleigh where the ‘Tom O’Brien Experiment’ continues to sour:
the Pack’s 2-6 SU record in ’08 puts them at 7-11 overall under the
formerly-successful Boston College head man. But a trip to the ATS
archives tells us that NC State’s victory drought is about to come to
a much-needed end. For starters, the Pack has ruled this series with
an iron paw, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings SU. State was also
favored in 12 of those 13 games – and the one time they were made
the pooch, the Lupines responded with an outright win. The Pack has
also compiled a solid 9-3 ATS mark as dogs versus a foe off a SU loss
and chief wolf O’Brien removes any lingering doubt with his perfect
5-0 SU and ATS record as an underdog of less than 7 points playing
with rest. As for Duke, OT losers have failed miserably the following
week as conference home chalk, going 18-36-2 against the number,
including 8-22 off a SUATS loss. The Devils have also been left blue in
their last dozen attempts as favorites, posting a poor 3-9 SU and 2-10
ATS record. O’Brien temporarily silences the naysayers with a big ACC
win here.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma St over TEXAS TECH by 6
How does the Big 12 keep doing it? Every week the conference conjures
up a primetime marquee matchup with national championship
implications – and this Saturday is certainly no exception. The Red
Raiders, of course, remained unbeaten after an electrifying last-second
win over #1 Texas and the Cowboys prepped for this showdown with
a 59-17 surgical dissection of Iowa State. And just like last week, this
heavyweight affair features a pair of quarterbacks worthy of Heisman
contention, Tech’s Graham Harrell (474 yards passing and 2 TDs vs.
Texas) and OSU’s Zac Robinson (395 yards passing against ISU). For the
stat freaks who point out that Okie State’s last win at Lubbock came
way back in 1944, we’ll counter with the fact that the Red Raiders had
NEVER beaten a No. 1 ranked opponent until last week – a scenario
that brings our ‘BRILLIANT DISGUISE’ angle from Playbook #9 to the
forefront. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys are 3-0-1 as conference road dogs
of 7 or fewer points and have carved out a superb 9-1 ATS mark when
playing off a SU Big 12 home win of 21 or more points. Let’s be honest:
the Red Raiders’ last second win over the Longhorns was nothing short
of miraculous and in this week’s battle of 500-yard offenses, we look
for Mike Leach’s magic to finally run out.

Florida over VANDERBILT by 21
A big letdown is always a possibility following a huge revenge win like
Florida’s 49-10 humiliation of Georgia but this Gator team looks too loaded
at every position to lose focus here… unless all-world QB Tim Tebow’s wobbly
ankle becomes a sore point of contention. For long-suffering Vanderbilt fans,
this year has an all-too-familiar look – a fast start followed by a devastating
late-season fl op. The Commodores appeared to be bowl-bound last year but
dropped their fi nal four games to keep them in Nashville for the holidays.
Right on cue, this year’s squad bolted out to a 5-0 start but has folded in
three straight, keeping them on the outside looking in at the postseason
promised land. We all know the Commies don’t have a snowball’s chance
of beating the mighty Gators SU but with a 5-0 ATS record off a week of
rest and a 14-4-1 ATS mark as SEC dogs off a SU favorite loss, Vandy has a
legitimate chance at covering the big number. Urban Meyer’s lone trip to
central Tennessee with his Gators resulted in a narrow 25-19 win in 2006
and with Florida playing the meat in a Georgia/South Carolina sandwich, UF
could be in for a real struggle today.

4* BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA over Arkansas by 20
Speaking of Florida coaches, former Gainesville legend Steve Spurrier
enters this matchup with an impressive 92-58-2 ATS college headcoaching
career when squaring off with a conference foe, including 4-0
when playing with double-exact revenge. The Hogs gained a bit more
cred for themselves and the SEC when they knocked off previously
unbeaten Tulsa last Saturday, grabbing the lead on a 96-yard kickoff
return late in the third quarter then keeping the Golden Hurricane
off the scoreboard in the final period. However, hidden in the glow of
victory was the ugly truth that Arky got whipped in the stats (528-435)
and fi rst-year head coach Bobby Petrino has NEVER grabbed the cash
when both teams enter off a SU win and Bobby-boy loses the contest
SU (0-5). We’re aware that South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia is not
100% but backup Chris Smelley is an able replacement. In terms of
scheduling, it couldn’t get much better for Spurrier’s team: the Hogs
come in nice and fat off a home upset win and South Carolina suits up
for its Last Home Game playing with double revenge. Razorbacks get
cold-cocked in Columbia.

Georgia over KENTUCKY by 14
The Dawgs turned in one of the season’s most disappointing performances
last week against Florida, a 49-10 disaster that had Georgia coach Mark Richt
questioning his team’s effort. “I thought there was fi ght in us,” lamented
Richt but after QB Matthew Stafford’s costly third-quarter interception
changed a potential 14-10 Georgia deficit to a 21-3 Gators lead, it was ‘Game
Over’ at the Cocktail Party. However, if anyone can revive an emotionally
distraught team to return to the business at hand, it’s Richt. He owns an
astonishing 28-4 SU record as Bulldogs’ head coach playing on the road (21-
11 ATS) and has cashed in five of seven meetings with the Bluegrass Cats.
Thanks to Georgia’s blowout loss and Kentucky’s SU dog win at Mississippi
State, the number on today’s matchup show up a bit more reasonable. And
with Kentucky just 1-4 ATS as dogs playing with conference revenge, we’ll
look for UGA to rebound with a vengeance.

Bowling Green over OHIO U by 6
Here we go again… a pair of MAC East squads trying to salvage their seasons,
only it’s too late for Ohio to do anything but play the role of spoiler. The
BeeGees show up with a 4-5 SU record but they can reach the conference
championship game if they run the table and Akron stumbles against
Buffalo. Notching a win in Game One of its final three looks like a strong
possibility for Bowling Green: the Falcons have completely dominated this
series, going 8-1 ATS overall and visiting the pointspread winner’s circle in
their last four visits to Peden Stadium. The visitors are also fueled by the
fire of revenge from last year’s 38-27 loss to Ohio, the BeeGees’ only home
loss of the season. Head coach Frank Solich does own a 4-1 ATS record as a
conference home dog with the Bobbies but the feeling here is the Cats are
essentially clawless. Ohio has failed to win at home against a single lined
opponent in 2008 and we think they’ll come up empty again.

BYU over San Diego St by 38
It was a Japanese Admiral commenting on the destruction of Pearl Harbor
who supposedly uttered the line, “I fear we have awakened a sleeping
giant.” Don’t look now but we’ve got a similar situation on our hands this
weekend with BYU. The Cougars have taken two games to recover from
their loss to TCU but playing their Final Home Game of 2008 against the
worst offense west of Auburn… well, let’s just say the Mormons are ready to
resume the mission. It doesn’t hurt the Cougars’ cause that they’re 5-0 ATS
recently as home chalk of 24 or more points and have covered three straight
against the Aztecs at Lavell Edwards Stadium. Diego’s head coach, Chuck
Long, always prays in the direction of Idaho these days: SDSU’s lone win this
season came over the hapless Vandals. The sun worshippers can also claim
the dubious distinction of being the only team in college football this year
to gain 600 yards in one game and just 85 in the next. We’re leaning more
to the lower end of the spectrum in this game, especially since SDSU is 0-5
ATS away from the surf when playing with conference revenge. Look for the
Cougars to awaken from their slumber against the Aztecs in a big way.

BOISE ST over Utah St by 28
If TCU has managed to sully Utah’s perfect record before this game kicks
off, Boise State will officially don the crown of BCS Buster – but only if the
Broncos win out against four beatable foes remaining in their path. Utah
State represents the first of those obstacles, a team currently putting the
finishing touches on the latest in a long line of losing seasons. The Aggies got
pulverized by the Broncs last year, 52-0, and have been buried both SU and
ATS in six consecutive ‘games’ versus the boys in blue. Things look even more
promising when we get a look at these results: BSU is 5-0 ATS as favorites
of 30 > points, 8-1 ATS home off BB road games and 6-1 ATS home versus a
conference foe looking to get even for last year. But you know what? Even
with all the good home field numbers, we’re not inclined to lay this many
points with an undefeated team in a Homecoming affair… especially when
we’re not working with a ‘Last Home Game’ scenario. Pass.

Oklahoma over TEXAS A&M by 18
That was some initiation Sooners’ head coach Bob Stoops dished out to
new Huskers’ head man Bo Pelini: OU jumped on Nebraska with a 35-0
first quarter and rolled up 62 total points with alarming ease. That kind
of shellacking would mean a lot more to us if Oklahoma didn’t have its
Revenge Game of the Year waiting on deck against Texas Tech. Mike Leach’s
Red Raiders tagged the Sooners with one of two regular season losses in
’07 and you know Oklahoma will be looking ahead to that rumble at some
time before or during this date with the Aggies. Currently just 4-5, Texas
A&M could use a 13th or 14th man this season but they HAVE fashioned a
two-game winning streak and own enough talent to throw a scare into the
Sooners if the breaks go their way. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS playing their
Last Home Game and have covered six of their last seven tries as double-digit
home dogs – plus this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT points us in A&M’s direction.

RICE over Army by 3
Just one look at the Owls’ recent offensive barrage – 45.3 PPG in their last
three games – and you wouldn’t question Rice laying doubles to a game
but outmanned Army squad, right? We look at it like this: why does the
linemaker continue to undervalue the Cadets? The Black Knights have held
three of their last four foes to season low yards and outgained Air Force
250-174 in last week’s heart-breaking 16-7 loss. By comparison, the Owls
have allowed season high yards to their opponents in four games this year
(including last week versus UTEP) and continue to fail at home against nonconference
foes, going just 1-7 ATS. Don’t fall in step with the public on this
one and lay points with an unwarranted Homecoming favorite. March to the
beat of a different drummer and go military here.

COLORADO over Iowa St by 11
Let’s see… two weeks now since Colorado gave Dan Hawkins a contract
extension and the University’s reward has been a pair of losses where the
Buffs were battered by a combined score of 82-17. With Oklahoma State on
deck and a road game at Lincoln to close out the season, Hawkins knows
he’d better get things right here or he could become part of the growing
exodus of college head coaches looking for employment. Normally we’d be
leaning to the underdog in this matchup but the pitiful Cyclones couldn’t
cash against the Cowboys as a recipient in the usually reliable BUBBLE
BURST role last week, so we’re not sure we want them here against a band
of Buffaloes needing two wins in three games to become bowl eligible.
Still, we wouldn’t want to lay doubles with the bison and watch Boulder
disappear under a foot of snow before game time. Look elsewhere.

SMU over Memphis by 3
If you read our RUNNING ON EMPTY ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ article on page
2, you know SMU is a Homecoming home dog that’s very much to our
liking. Sure, the Mustangs pulled a no-show against Navy last week but
they’ve ponied up with big-time efforts in their last two home games,
scoring 38 and 31 points in narrow losses to Houston and Tulsa. Memphis
is a benchmark of mediocrity this season, losing three in a row to the
spread before last Saturday’s upset of Southern Miss. The Tigers are also
toothless when it comes to point-laying: they’re an awful 1-4-1 ATS in
their last six as road favorites and an even worse 1-6 ATS overall as chalk.
SMU head coach June Jones looks to be laying in the weeds here with a
12-3-1 ATS record when playing off back-to-back losses so we won’t be
surprised when the Ponies head back to the corral with their second SU
win of the year.

MISSOURI over Kansas St by 28
Gary Pinkel will sure be glad to see Columbia today. The last two trips he
and his Tigers took away from the cage resulted in a 56-31 blowout loss to
Texas and a 31-28 near ambush by Baylor. Gary will be glad to check out
these numbers, too. Missouri is 7-1 ATS at home versus a Big 12 foe seeking
revenge (13-2 ATS against all teams in that role) and 10-2-2 ATS as conference
favorites of 15 or more points. Don’t stop there, Gary. Take a gander at the
3-8 ATS failure by the series visitor lately… and don’t overlook the fact that
Kansas State was sliced and diced for 110 points and 1019 yards in its last
two games versus Oklahoma and Kansas. Gary says this looks to be more of
the same and we’re in no position to argue. Smells like roast Wildcats from
over here…

FLORIDA ST over Clemson by 10
The annual Bowden Bowl is no more. Following Tommy Bowden’s
departure from Clemson a few weeks ago, Bobby the Elder must now be
content to face the Tigers’ interim leader, Dabo Swinney. But don’t dismiss
Dabo just because of his odd moniker: he had enough sense to seek out
the counsel of Clemson football’s grand oracle, Danny Ford, and Swinney’s
resulting game plan for Boston College was good enough to snap a 50-
year skid against the Eagles – and give Dabo his first career victory with
the Tiger Paw. Meanwhile, FSU’s Bowden was watching his 7th ranked
national rush defense get exposed by Georgia Tech’s triple option attack,
giving up 288 ground yards and four rushing TDs in a 3-point loss to the
Yellow Jackets. Bobby’s boys should fare a bit better this week against a
more familiar offensive attack, a notion confirmed by the ‘Noles’ 4-1 ATS
mark in the last fi ve Clemson games at Tallahassee. The Tigers come to
town dragging a 3-33 ATS ball and chain, forged when they lose SU to an
ACC revenger, and they’ve also struggled to an anemic 1-5 ATS lately as
conference road dogs of 7 or more points. Hmmm… Bobby off a SU loss
with triple revenge against the school that just cast his son into the void?
Too good to pass up!

EAST CAROLINA over Marshall by 10
ECU fan will probably have to seek out a therapist before the end of this
crazy season. The Pirates opened with an exhilarating 3-0 start, followed by
sobering 0-3 skein, and most recently a modest 2-game win streak, the last
in OT against Central Florida. Most disturbing is the Pirates’ timber-shivering
1-5 ATS performance in their past six games – after going 28-11 ATS under
Skip Holtz in 39 prior contests. This is a huge game for the Herd if they
want to go bowling in ’08 but 4-4 Marshall arrives off an ‘inside-out’ win
over Houston, the visitors’ SEVENTH consecutive ITS loss this year (only stat
win in season opener vs. Illinois State). East Carolina’s loss to the Herd cost
the Pirates a trip to last year’s C-USA title game but they can gain a double
measure of revenge here since a win also makes them bowl eligible for ’08.
If Holtz can right the ship over the coming weeks, ECU could win out and
land an upper level bowl bid.

NEBRASKA over Kansas by 3
Forget about last week’s 62-28 shucking of the helpless Huskers by Oklahoma;
there’s a huge talent gap between OU and most other teams. However,
Kansas is a different story. In case you’ve forgotten, Nebraska was slaughtered
last year at Lawrence by a 76-39 final, the most points ever allowed by the
Huskers in a football game (allowed less than 76 total points combined in 35
different seasons in school history, including 1902 when they outscored the
opposition 186-0 en route to a 10-0 season!). The Jayhawks usually come back
from Lincoln minus a feather or two – Kansas is 0-19 SU on this field since
1969 – and KU’s embarrassing 0-17 SU and 3-13-1 ATS mark after Kansas State
versus a winning foe since 1976 looks like too much history to overcome.
Nebraska needs one more win to become bowl eligible and they get it here.

Penn St over IOWA by 3
Is this the week that Penn State takes a tumble? The 9-0 Nittany Lions are a
‘go against’ play in this week’s ‘As The Noose Tightens’ SMART BOX on page
3 – and if that’s not enough to get your vote, check out these qualifications.
The Nits are just 2-7 ATS versus a Big 10 opponent with revenge, 2-5 ATS
after road games with Ohio State and 2-5 ATS as rested favorites. Despite last
week’s loss at Illinois, Kirk Ferentz finally has Iowa playing more like the teams
that went to six bowls in seven seasons than last year’s 6-6 underachievers
that shoveled snow in Iowa City on New Year’s Day. The Hawkeyes bring
along a stout 5-1 ATS mark as home dogs of 7 or more points and their
12th ranked rush ‘D’ has allowed just two lined opponents more than 100
rushing yards this season. Joe Pa knows he’s home free if he can subdue the
Hawkeyes but his team will have to conquer an Iowa defense that’s given up
a season high of just 27 points in one game – and under immense pressure
at a hostile venue, too. We’re hangin’ with the homeys today.

BOSTON COLLEGE over Notre Dame by 6
From their throwback coaches to their style-less uniforms, you just knew if
Notre Dame and Pitt were to slug it out for six hours instead of three, they’d
STILL be tied. Mercifully, the 36-33 Panther win took just four overtimes to
decide but Notre Dame now faces the dilemma of shaking off a tough loss
(Irish led 17-3 at halftime) while hitting the road for a battle royal with the
Boston Catholics. You already know we have little interest in OT losers the
following week, especially a team that lost to BC in 2007 as 13.5-point home
dogs, and the Dame’s 5-3 SU record has come at the expense of opponents
who’ve struggled to a combined SU mark of just 11-33. The red-faced Eagles
scored 21 unanswered points against Clemson last Saturday to erase a 17-0
halftime deficit but they let the Tigers score the game’s final 10 points to
hand BC its second home loss of the season. With the Beantown Boys a solid
8-1 SU and ATS at home versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss, we’ll trust
in J-God to deliver the win and cover today.

TENNESSEE over Wyoming by 24
After scoring just 15 total points in ugly back-to-back SEC losses, Tennessee
will welcome mediocre Wyoming to Knoxville with open arms this weekend.
The only thing is the Vols may not have a rudder to steer the ship. After 16-plus
seasons on the sidelines in Knoxville, word is that head coach Phillip Fulmer
has been handed the dreaded pink slip following UT’s “unacceptable” 3-6
mark in ’08. Before this bomb was dropped, the Vols were still entertaining
thoughts of postseason play: three wins in their last three games would have
qualifi ed them as bowl-berth beggars, carrying a 6-6 record in their cup,
but now? We sure don’t want Wyoming, a team that was on an 0-15-1 ATS
losing slide until last week’s win over the lowly Aztecs but neither are we
interested in disinterested favorites with a lame-duck head coach. One more
thing: Tennessee is a money-burning machine as a home favorite, going 7-15
ATS in its last 22 tries. Like the Vols without Phillip, you’re on your own.

5* BEST BET
LSU over Alabama by 11
From laughingstock to No. 1 in less than two seasons – that’s quite
an accomplishment for Alabama head coach Nick Saban. But now the
Nictator must return to Baton Rouge and if our handicapping expertise
has something to say about it, the Tide looks to be in a heap of trouble
down in Cajun country. For openers, Bama is a SMART BOX fade (‘As
The Noose Tightens’) this week while the host Bengals qualify as a
‘play on’ team from last week’s ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX.
The Tide usually falters in their Last Road Game in a season, going just
1-5 ATS lately, a stat that fits just fine with LSU’s strong 7-3 ATS mark as
home dogs of 10 or less points. Les ‘The Mad Hatter’ Miles has posted
six SU wins in eight tries at home when challenging an undefeated
foe (3-0 with the Tigers) and has already met his annual quota of SU
losses with two. This just in from our powerful database: defending
National Champions are 13-4-1 ATS as dogs versus opponents with
visions of being the next National Champ (undefeated), including 10-
1-1 if the foe is off a win of 15 or more points. Say goodbye to the
new No. 1; they call it Death Valley, right?

OREGON over Stanford by 14
Ducks were unceremoniously grounded at Cal last weekend, held to their
second lowest point total of the season by the feisty Bears. One look at
the pointspread credentials in today’s contest, however, and everything’s
coming up ‘duck’. Visiting Stanford is 0-3 ATS as a dog before a home date
with the Trojans, 1-4 ATS off a SU home conference win and 4-10 ATS as PAC
10 pups of 4 or more points playing with revenge. Oregon owns a recent 6-0
SU and ATS series edge, plus the Ducks are 5-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back
games at Autzen Stadium and 10-2 ATS ad double-digit conference chalk.
We do have one concern: in the final three games of the last two seasons,
the feathered ones have spiraled downward to a 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark.
Uhh, make that one BIG concern…

Arizona St over WASHINGTON by 10
Huskies are officially the WORST team in college football, the only school
in division 1-A (we’re gonna keep calling it that until someone makes us
stop) to have NOT won a single game (0-8 after loss to USC). But as bad as
the Huskies may be, there’s no way we’re risking our hard-earned dough
on the Sun Devils as 2-TD road chalk! Much like Wake Forest, Arizona
State is also leaking oil, losing the stats in its last five games. Dennis
Erickson’s disappointing squad should snap its 6-game losing skein today
but a 2-9-1 ATS record in the Devils’ last dozen hardly inspires confidence
that they’ll get the money, too. Recently fi red U-dub head coach Ty
Willingham has managed an 8-6 SU and 11-3 ATS mark as a dog off a
SUATS loss against sub .666 opposition and we wouldn’t be surprised if
his team pulls together to play hard in Willingham’s fi nal four games.
Take it if you play it.

Hawaii over NEW MEXICO STATE by 3
Another late line thanks to a rash of injuries crippling the Aggies. Star QB
Chase Holbrook left last week’s game against Boise State and did not return;
NMSU also lost two wide receivers in the 49-0 annihilation by the Broncos.
The oddsmaker doesn’t have an easy task here considering Hawaii was
a 31-point favorite at home last year and laid 19 to the Aggies here two
years ago. Regardless of the fi nal price, we’re not enthused about playing a
Warrior team that lost 30-14 as 6-point road chalk against sorry Utah State
last week (UH also a poor 1-5 ATS in Last Road Games) – but neither do
we want a 3-5 New Mexico State outfit that’s playing its 9th straight game
without a breather. Pass.

HOUSTON over Tulane by 16
After a competitive start, the 2-6 Green Wave appear to be at low tide,
losing by 25 or more points in three of their last four outings. Tulane’s recent
0-5 SUATS mark in this series is just marginally worse than its 1-10 ATS log
as DD dogs against a foe off a SU favorite loss, numbers that nudge us in
Houston’s direction. The Cougars do bring the nation’s 4th ranked offense
into this matchup (530 YPG) with their only stat loss on the season coming
against powerful Oklahoma State. But we do have a rule against playing
Homecoming favorites and you know what usually happens when you stray
from the rules. Bad things, man.

AIR FORCE over Colorado St by 7
Colorado State lost a cruel game at BYU last week when the Cougars
marched 76 yards in the fi nal 1:14, scoring on 17-yard TD pass with 22
seconds remaining. There was much less drama at West Point where the
Flyboys managed just 10 fi rst downs and were outyarded by Army but
somehow eked out a 16-7 win over the Cadets. Surprisingly, the Rams have
been favored in eight of the last nine series showdowns, winning outright
the only time they sported the dog collar. Air Force is losing altitude lately,
losing the stat battle in each of its last two wins, and owns a miserable 1-6
ATS log as home chalk in post-military operations (after Army and/or Navy).
CSU desperately needs this game to keep alive its faint postseason hopes and
could catch Air Force up in the clouds over next week’s huge home game
versus BYU. Take the points if you play.

UCLA over Oregon St by 1
Those who ignore history will look at the 5-3 Beavers laying a TD to the 3-5
Bruins and immediately side with OSU. Not so fast, my friend! Oregon State
has been skinned both SU and ATS in five consecutive series games with the
Bruins, losing the last three outright as favorites. The dam-builders have also
struggled away from the pond this season, going 1-3 SU with their lone win
coming over woeful Washington. Despite an expected fi nal game thrashing
by Southern Cal, UCLA can still become bowl eligible by winning today, then
beating Washington and Arizona State. Bruins are money in the bank in the
role of home underdogs, clawing their way to an 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS in
their last dozen tries. And if you’re still wavering, UCLA’s Rick Neuheisel is the
answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. What more could you want?

Arizona over WASHINGTON ST by 36
Every time Las Vegas puts out a line on the Cougars, the bookies of America
collectively wince: seven times Wazzu has taken on the oddsmaker – and
suffered seven indisputable KO’s. Considering they’ve been beaten by an
incredible average of 60 PPG in three straight PAC 10 embarrassments,
Washington State may need more than the puny 39 points they’re being
offered to hang with the resurgent Desert Cats. But a look under Arizona’s
hood tells us the Wildcats are leaking some mid-season oil themselves, losing
the stats in their last three games. That’s too bad considering the two teams
that will vie for this season’s Apple Cup – the Cougars and Huskies -– are 1-16
SU combined and lost last week by a combined margin of 114-0! First-year
Wazzu coach Paul Wulff gets an ‘F’ in defense this season: his Cougars have
been outscored 350-33 in their six PAC 10 contests in ’08. No Wildcats for us,
though, since Arizona is the runnerup for this week’s Incredible Stat. Yes, the
Wildcats have not won a road game by 40 points since 1952, covering a span
of 249 games! That alone is enough to keep us away. And in case you didn’t
know – and we’re sure you did not – the Cougars have actually held two
teams to season low yards this season, including Oklahoma State! As Matt
Damon is known to say, “How do you like them apples!”

Southern Miss over C Florida by 3
Even after unloading on UAB in a 70-14 massacre last week, Southern Miss
fi nds itself 3-6 and gasping for postseason breath (reaching a bowl required
much less effort when ousted HC Jeff Bower patrolled the USM sidelines).
The Eagles would need to win their final three games to gain bowl eligibility
(here, home vs. ECU and at SMU) – but don’t dismiss the possibility. Opening
as a 1-point favorite over the Knights, Smissy stands 6-1 ATS recently as road
chalk but the visitors have also lost SU in the favorite role against UCF for
two straight years. Bright House Networks Stadium has dimmed considerably
this season thanks to the Knights’ disappointing 2-6 record and with UCF’s
offense currently on life support (14.3 PPG L3), we can only look in one
direction here.

TEXAS over Baylor by 20
Longhorns mounted a stirring comeback against Texas Tech in last week’s
epic battle but they couldn’t keep the lid on future NFL star Michael Crabtree
when it counted, and the Red Raider WR snared the game winner with just
ONE second left to play. Now, cursed with the ill fortune of the BUBBLE
BURST scenario, Texas must regroup quickly to deal with a surprisingly game
Baylor squad that lost by just 3 points to Missouri. The Bears are supported
by a 7-3 ATS mark in favor of the series visitor and own an identical 7-3
ATS record as Big 12 dogs if the line climbs to 27 or more points. True,
Baylor has been ripped for 51 PPG in its last nine games with the Longhorns
but Art Briles appears to be cookin’ up something special at Waco. Much
like Missouri, Texas may take a game or two to shake off Saturday night’s
heartbreaking loss at Lubbock. We’ll buck Bevo here and hope the dog way
is the right way.

WEST VIRGINIA over Cincinnati by 6
WVU QB Pat White put the team on his back against UConn last week
and engineered a 28-0 second half blitzkrieg that humbled the Huskies
and moved West Virginia back to its customary position atop the Big East.
The Mounties are in a bad spot here, though, covering just two of their
last 12 tries as home favorites off a DD ATS win against an avenging foe.
Cincinnati moved to 6-2 with last week’s methodical 24-10 win over USF and
head Bearcat Brian Kelly owns a strong 15-7-2 ATS mark taking points, a
number that sweetens to 11-2-2 ATS when made a dog of 12 points or less.
Kelly is also 5-1 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins and has been
mentioned as a possible candidate for the Tennessee position should UT fire
Phillip Fulmer. Bearcats befuddle the Hillbillies in Morgantown.

Louisville over PITTSBURGH by 1
Hey, you think Steve Kragthorpe is on the hot seat after losing two years in
a row to Syracuse? This from our good friend, the retired 5* General Tom
Scott: “THE FIRE UNDER HIS ASS MAKES THE TOWERING INFERNO LOOK
LIKE A PILOT LIGHT!” Fortunately for Stevie boy, the host Panthers show up
as a ‘Play Against’ in this week’s ‘Anti Irish’ AWESOME ANGLE. Pittsburgh
has failed to cash a ticket in its last six games at the Ketchup Bowl and head
coach Wannstedt owns a certifi ably bad 2-7 ATS record as home chalk of less
than 10 points. Louie laid 10.5 points to the Panthers on this field two years
ago and let’s face it: Kragthorpe needs this game like Ma needs Donna.

MINNESOTA over Michigan by 3
It’s been a season of ‘firsts’ under new coach Rich Rodriquez but not the
kind everyone expected. Now Rich can add ‘first losing season since 1967’
and ‘first time in 34 seasons to miss a bowl game’ to his litany of failure with
the Dazed-and-Blue. And we’re sure it’s been awhile since Michigan carried
a 2-7 SU record after nine games while Minnesota owned a mirror opposite
7-2 mark. We do know for sure that the Wolverines are 35-3 SU versus the
rodents since 1968 and they were favored in all 38 get-togethers. Minny is a
lifeless 0-4 against the number as chalk following a game with Northwestern
and may be hobbled by the condition of star WR Eric Decker (seen wearing
a walking boot after spraining his ankle against the Wildcats). Now that the
‘pressure’ is finally off Michigan, we think they’ll respond by posting just
their SECOND ATS WIN of the season.

USC over California by 14
Wrapped around a 17-10 win versus Arizona in the desert, USC unleashed
a scorched-earth destruction of the state of Washington, obliterating WSU,
69-0 and U-dub, 56-0. But these Bears ain’t chopped liver; in fact, they’re
a ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX dog and all of us appreciate a good
opportunity to expand our intellect. Cal has plundered the Trojan treasury in
five of its six most recent trips to the Coliseum and has dropped only one of
the last six games in series by more than 14 points. Maintaining their hold on
the purse strings won’t be an easy task for the Golden Bears: USC is 10-1 ATS
off a SU home win of over 40 points, plus the Trojan ‘D’ has held all 8 foes
to season low – or 2nd low yards – this season. Jeff Tedford’s team fought
USC to the gun last year before falling by a mere 7 points; the margin will be
slightly higher this year but still low enough to ring the register.

SAN JOSE ST over La Tech by 12
In a quiet, efficient manner, the Spartan defense has been unheralded this
season. Currently ranked No. 18 in the nation, San Jose’s stop-troops have
held four foes to season low – or 2nd low yards, allowing an average of 295
DYPG. That’s why they will be bowling at season’s end. This week, though,
they tackle Louisiana Tech who is fresh off last week’s 38-35 upset slugfest
win over Fresno State. That doesn’t bode well for the Bulldogs as the gang
from Ruston is a pathetic 0-16-1 ATS in games off a win in which they scored
35 or more points! With Sparty a super-sharp 11-1 ATS at home against .500
or less opposition, look for SJSU to pad its bowl resume tonight.

New Mexico over UNLV by 3
An agonizing spot for both teams with the Lobos playing in their eleventh
straight game without rest while the Rebels look to put a halt to a 5-game
losing skid after starting the season with 3 wins in their first 4 games. Bad
new for the Vegas faithful is that QB Omar Clayton is expected to miss
this game with injuries. The best New Mexico can do is to win its final two
games of the campaign and hope to find a bowl suitor. Given the Lobos’
dominance in this series (7-2 ATS last 9 games, including 4-0 the last 4 here),
look for the clock to run out on the Rebels.

ADDED GAMES

TROY over W Kentucky by 21
Both teams failed miserably last Saturday as the Trojans were tripped
up as 10.5-point road chalk at La Monroe while the Hilltoppers laid the
‘Mother Goose’ of all eggs in an 11-point home loss to North Texas as 18-
point choices. As a result, Troy fell to 2nd place in the Sun Belt standings
and needs to win out in order to capture the conference crown. With this
being the first of a three-game season-ending homestand, the men of Troy
control their own destiny. Rest assured they will be looking to impress bowl
scouts down the stretch. And if this line stretches to -20 by the weekend,
note that the Trojans are 3-0 SU and ATS as favorites of 20 or more points
in their school history, by an average win margin of 35 PPG. No Hillfloppers
for us.

FLA ATLANTIC over N Texas by 20
This will be a test of nerves, for sure. As in do “you have enough nerve to
grab 20-plus points with a team that is 0-4 SU in this series with no loss
coming by more than 10 points but knowing that team is 0-8 ATS in games
off a win”? Or can you man-up and lay the points with a team that is 1-7
ATS at home against losing teams, one of which has NEVER been favored by
more than 14 points in its school history? As Forrest Gump was known to say,
“Ugly is as ugly does.” And we don’t want either of these sick pups.

LA LAFAYETTE over Utep by 13
Don’t look now but guess what team sits atop the Sun Belt Conference with
just three weeks remaining? If you said the Ragin’ Cajuns, you are correct.
It’s where the nation’s No. 8 ranked offense (491 YPG), keyed by a powerful
ground game averaging 312 RYPG, has led them. One more win and La La
wraps up bowl eligibility and, despite stepping outside the conference, they
should get that here. Granted, the Miners are 7-1 ATS as dogs after scoring
35 or more points against an opponent off back-to-back wins. We simply
question UTEP’s late-season, dead in the water motive.

Arkansas St over FLA INT’L by 10
We’ve been licking our chops waiting for the right spot to fade these
overrated, piteous Panthers and this looks to be it. The Red Wolves were
ambushed at top-ranked Alabama last week, thus setting the table for this
play. That’s because conference road favorites off a shutout road loss are
18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS in their very next game. Weighing both team’s stats
we find FIU –117 net YPG as opposed to ASU’s + 62 net YPG on the season.
No surprise whatsoever to see the Pussycats fall to 0-6 SU and ATS at home
against an opponent off a loss in their school history.

MID TENN ST over La Monroe by 1
Both teams will need to win out should they wish to don bowling shirts at
season’s end. Don’t count on it. While Monroe is a nifty 19-6 ATS on the
conference road, including 9-1 ATS when off back-to-back losses, they are
winless on the highway this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders are a
Homecoming favorite that is ‘leakin’ oil’ profusely (lost the stats in each of
their last five games). Take it or leave it.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK
selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a
strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

 

[tgunn11]

Marc Lawrence’s
THE PLAYBOOK

Volume 23, Issue 12 November 4-10, 2008

College

Tuesday, November 4th

BUFFALO over Miami Ohio by 3
Wow. A win for Buffalo here will assure the Bulls of no worse than a tie for
first in the MAC East where not a single team can claim a winning record,
either SU or in conference play. With Miami Ohio sitting at 2-6 on the year
and hosting Ball State next week, the RedHawks are fading faster than the
Bush Administration’s legacy. Even so, we think the Bulls are a bit overpriced
at -8 points… especially since Buffalo has been a series dog for nine straight
meetings by an average spread of +21.5! Buffalo has also gone 0-9 SU in
those games, a stat that gains importance when we get a look at Miami’s
8-1 ATS mark off a double-digit ATS loss when tackling a .500 or greater foe.
No, the RedHawks aren’t bargains but the Bulls are just 1-3 ATS as chalk this
year, covering against UTEP in the season opener and failing to cash a ticket
in their next three tries as favorites. Buffi e’s less-than-inspiring 2-6 mark ‘In
The Stats’ (lost the last fi ve in a row) seals the deal. Bulls win but RedHawks
fly off with the money.

Wednesday, November 5th

BALL ST over No Illinois by 6
It’s easy to make fun of a team when they’re stuck in a down cycle but our
usual ‘Gonad’ jokes about Ball State are rapidly disappearing in favor of
outright astonishment. Brady Hoke’s boys from Muncie are as close to perfect
as you can get: 8-0 SU, 8-0 ITS and 6-1 ATS, with their lone ATS defeat coming
last time out versus Eastern Michigan. And with the price currently hovering
in single digits, we wouldn’t be surprised to see longer lines at BSU’s betting
window than what we’ve seen at the polls. However, as we’ve stated before,
undefeated teams feel the pressure ratchet up with every passing week and
can’t be trusted laying points late in the season. That notion is bolstered by
some great numbers favoring Northern Illinois in this matchup. The Huskies
have covered four of the last five games on this field, they’re 4-0 ATS away
off consecutive home games, they’re 5-1 ATS as weekday dogs and they’re
4-1-1 ATS lately when playing with conference revenge. But here’s what we
like best: NIU has held each of its last fi ve foes season to low – or 2nd low
– yardage. With the year Ball State QB Nate Davis is having, we wouldn’t
give the Huskies a look unless we thought they could match up defensively.
Don’t be surprised to see Jerry Kill and his Ball-busters drop the ‘Nads to 1-5
ATS playing with rest.

AKRON over Toledo by 4
Jeez, another MAC weekday game! We haven’t seen any ratings numbers
for this year’s telecasts but we wonder how ESPN can keep a straight face
when sending out invoices to game advertisers. Akron is currently stuck in a
MAC East logjam and needs a win here to keep pace with Buffalo, a feat the
Zips should manage against a Toledo team that’s come apart at the seams
in 2008. Even more troubling for Rocket fans is the recent announcement
that longtime head coach Tom Amstutz will be stepping down at season’s
end to become the school’s chief fund-raiser (what’s that all about?). Toledo
owns an uncharacteristic 0-4 SU record at home this year and has misfi red
in fi ve straight games after facing CMU. But one look at Akron’s current 0-3
SU record at home (and its 4-1 mark away) tells us why the visiting team has
cashed in six of eight Zips’ games this season. Your call.

Thursday, November 6th

VA TECH over Maryland by 4
The 6-2 Terps (#23 in the BCS poll) have overcome a schizophrenic start to
vault into the ACC Atlantic division lead and are actually just one of three
teams in the country with three wins over ranked teams. Not so at Blacksburg
where Beamer Ball is currently fl oundering. Va Tech’s 30-20 loss to Florida
State marked only the second time in 53 games where the Hokies have lost
back-to-back contests SU and a program that fi lled its supporters’ pockets
with a 32-17-1 ATS run during the previous four seasons has sunk to a
money-burning 2-5 ATS log in ’08. The fact that the Terps have won outright
in all three of their underdog appearances this season has us leaning in their
direction but there are just too many injuries surrounding the game at this
time (Maryland RB Da’Rel Scott; VT QBs Sean Glennon and Tyrod Taylor) to
make a defi nitive call.

UTAH over Tcu by 3
Hold on… we’re climbin’ off the fence for this one! TCU was relegated to redheaded
stepchild status in the national ‘BCS Buster’ conversation following
the Frogs’ loss to Oklahoma but the Horned Ones put the kibosh on big, bad
BYU, 32-7, and now have a chance to eliminate fellow MWC power Utah
from BCS consideration. TCU’s ferocious ‘D’ has held its previous fi ve foes to
just 8.4 PPG and they’ve limited EIGHT opponents in ’08 to season low yards,
the most of any team in division 1-A. The Froggies also would have entered
today’s showdown as a ‘SMART BOX ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ dog but they
happened to show up favored, instead. That means we’ll take a good, long
look at the Utes – and we actually like what we see. Unbeaten Utah has held
four of its foes to season low yardage while building its SU home win streak
to nine in a row. The boys from Salt Lake City also bring along a super 15-3
ATS record as dogs since 1990 when the team’s win percentage is .750 or
greater. Oh yeah, Utah has served up frog legs in two consecutive meetings
and would solidify its #8 BCS ranking with a win here. It’s red over purple in
the battle for the green…

Friday, November 7th

Nevada over FRESNO STATE by 1
A season that started with great promise for Pat Hill’s Bulldogs came crashing
down last weekend with a loss to mediocre Louisiana Tech, the third time
this year that Fresno State has come out on the short end of a 3-point fi nal.
With the WAC title now conceded to Boise State, Hill admitted that the
only thing left to play for is a bowl berth. That could be a lot easier said
than done, particularly when the 5-3 Dogs defense is getting gashed for an
ugly 5.4 YPR and the visiting Wolf Pack is toting the mail for an outstanding
average of 6.6 YPR. Advantage, Nevada. The Reno Wolves also look like
the pack to back when we note their 4-1 ATS record as a series dog and
FSU’s dismal 1-5 spread mark this season as chalk. In a game that looks to
be tighter than this week’s presidential election, we’ll take the feral dogs to
bring down their domesticated cousins.

Saturday, November 8th

RUTGERS over Syracuse by 11
Despite knocking off Louisville for its second win of the year, Syracuse still
can’t get any respect, showing up as a 2-TD underdog to the 3-5 Scarlet
Knights. Rutgers has had a week off to bask in the glory of its shocking 54-
34 destruction of Pitt but a Knights’ defense that’s forced only FIVE fumbles
all year doesn’t look like double-digit chalk material to us. True, Rutgers has
cashed in the previous three meetings with the ‘Cuse but its dreadful 0-4 ATS
record when favored this year (lost three of those games outright) will likely
keep our wallets closed. On the fl ip side, lame duck Syracuse coach Greg
Robinson is 5-0 ATS off a win of more than 6 points (not many of those in
his career!) and the Orange are taking 3 fewer points on the road here than
they did as home dogs to the Knights last year. Our only relevant thought to
this snoozer is that Robinson continues to lose so the SU administration can
FINALLY kick him into the gutter where he belongs. No interest.

Wisconsin over INDIANA by 14
Bret Bielema’s Badgers were riding a 24-5 SU streak and a #9 AP ranking
when they rolled into the Big House for Game Four of the 2008 season. But
after blowing a 19-point lead in its shocking 27-25 loss to Michigan, Wisky has
totally collapsed, plummeting to the Big 10 basement after four more defeats,
the most recent a galling, last-second choke job against Michigan State that
neatly sums up the Badgers’ disturbing year. Now Wisconsin needs to win its
two remaining conference games to become bowl eligible, a prospect still
within the realm of possibility. The Hoosiers probably won’t put up much of
a fight; riddled with injuries before last week’s back-breaking home loss to
Central Michigan, Indiana will be lucky to field enough warm bodies to avoid
a forfeit. IU’s dreadful 6-18 ATS mark in its last 24 games at Bloomington just
makes the case for the visitors even stronger. On, Wisconsin!

Ohio St over NORTHWESTERN by 14
Tied at 17, Northwestern and Minnesota were slogging along towards
overtime when the Wildcats’ Brendan Smith returned an interception 48
yards for the winning TD with just 12 seconds remaining. But the real eye opener
in NU’s 24-17 victory was the play of replacement QB Mike ‘Don’t
Call Me Franz’ Kafka, who atoned for a pair of costly picks by rambling for
217 yards on 27 carries – a school rushing record for a quarterback. However,
he’ll be witness to a defensive metamorphosis this weekend when he has to
stare down Ohio State’s big-time stop unit, a task infi nitely more challenging
than taking on the Golden Gophers. Then there’s the laundry list of strong
ATS numbers that the Buckeyes bring to the fray: 10-0 after Penn State, 9-1
away off a SU home loss and 9-2 away versus a Big 10 foe with revenge.
OSU head coach Jim Tressel – who has to be enjoying the fact that his
annual abuse of Lloyd Carr almost single-handedly led to the downfall of
the Michigan program – chips in with an 8-2 ATS mark off a loss against a
conference adversary (4-0 if favored by 4 or more points). Today’s contest is
also a rare ‘double inside-out’ matchup: the Wildcats beat Minnesota but
were outgained; the Buckeyes lost to the Nittany Lions but won the stats.
NU’s star RB Tyrell Sutton is offi cially done for the year and with Ohio State’s
offense coming off a blood-curdling 6-point effort against Penn State, we
expect the Bucks to cash their fourth straight ticket in this series. Sure, OSU
has a mega-revenger on deck with the Fighting Illini but that won’t scare us
away from this bonafi de blowout of the hobbled Mildcats.

MICHIGAN ST over Purdue by 8
Hey, misery truly DOES love company! With Purdue head coach Joe Tiller’s
Farewell Tour rapidly heading south (Boilers had dropped fi ve straight
before taking on Michigan last week), it was only fi tting that the Tillerman
share a little bit of his frustration by ending the Wolverines’ run of 33
consecutive bowl appearances. It took a hair-raising catch-and-lateral play in
the game’s closing seconds to bury Michigan but the victory keeps oxygen
pumping to Purdue’s near-hopeless shot of reaching an 11th bowl in Tiller’s
12 seasons at West Lafayette. Good numbers abound for both sides in today’s
donnybrook. The Boilermakers own a torrid 13-1 ATS mark when playing
off a SU conference home win, plus they’ve cashed in six straight Game Ten
situations. Michigan State, also the benefi ciary of a stirring comeback win last
Saturday, will be bidding farewell to the seniors at Spartan Stadium today, a
situation where they’ve grabbed the green 13 out of the past 14 times. Our
biggest problem with MSU is backing a squad playing its 11th straight game
without rest against a desperate foe (not to mention Sparty’s season-ender
with conference bear Penn State looming on the horizon). With Gang Green
possibly looking past Purdue while searching for an oxygen tank, we’d take
it or leave it.

N CAROLINA over Ga Tech by 7
We don’t know what you’ll be doing after you put down this week’s
newsletter but we’ll bet UNC head coach Butch Davis will be watching fi lm
from the Virginia-Georgia Tech game two weeks ago. While every other ACC
coach has been unable to defend Paul Johnson’s triple option offense, Al
Groh’s Wahoos held the Jackets to just 156 rushing yards and overcame a
14-3 halftime deficit by outscoring Tech 21-3 in the second half to win, 24-17.
And who knows – maybe with an extra week to prepare, Davis can put his Tar
Heel defenders in the right schemes to slow down the prolific Tech offense.
Butch pushed the proper buttons the last time out versus Boston College,
holding the Eagles to a season low 244 total yards, and the rested Heels
have kicked their way to four straight series’ covers. Our powerful database
informs us that a week of rest coupled with revenge works wonders for
conference home teams off a SU win, going 69-32-4 ATS from Game Nine
out. Considering the Yellow Jackets have been outstatted in three of their
last four games, we’ll be going to the Chapel to see Carolina make a wreck
out of Tech.

Illinois over W MICHIGAN by 3
Hmmm… Indiana loses to Central Michigan, Michigan loses to Toledo… is the
MAC closing the gap on the Big 10? That looks to be the case here. Illinois has
won outright in its last four meetings with the Mid-Americans but has had
its pockets picked in all four contests. Meanwhile, Western Michigan shows
up with a smart 4-1 ATS log as pups against the Big 10 and since the Broncos
have already earned bowl eligibility with 7 wins, they’d like nothing better
than to spoil 5-4 Illinois’ shot at reaching the postseason – certainly not a
lock with Ohio State and Northwestern waiting in the wings. Speaking of
the Buckeyes, Ron Zook’s 28-21 upset of OSU at Ohio Stadium last year was
his signature win at Champaign so he’ll have to work extra hard at keeping
his team focused on WMU here. The potential distraction of playing today’s
game at cavernous Ford Field in Detroit shouldn’t affect an Illinois squad that
opened its season versus Missouri at the Edward Jones Dome in St. Louis.
And if we can’t convince you to take the points with the Broncos, perhaps
we can point you toward the ‘Over’. Led by a pair of talented, up-tempo
quarterbacks in Juice Williams and Tim Hiller, the yards and points should pile
up fast, making short work of the 50.5 point OU line. Bombs away!

WAKE FOREST over Virginia by 1
The collection plates are less full these days in Winston-Salem. After posting
a profitable 16-9-1 ATS mark over the past two seasons, the Deacs have gone
right into the pointspread crapper in ‘08, losing the money in four of their
last five contests. Virginia’s miracle four-game SUATS run bit the dust last
Saturday in a 24-17 OT loss to Miami and both the Cavs and the Demon
Deacons enter this critical clash with identical 3-2 SU marks in conference
play. One of our favorite expressions is to fi nd a favorite this time of the
season that’s been outgained in each of its last three games. We call it
‘leaking oil’ and thanks to three straight stat losses, the Demon Deacons
have officially joined the Pennzoil Club. With Jim Grobe’s squad failing to
cash a single ticket in five straight clashes with the Cavs on this field and
Virginia back in its preferred role of underdog, we’ll look for the OT loser
Cavaliers to get the better of the OT winner Deacons today. A solid take.

3* BEST BET
NC State over DUKE by 7
The Blue Devils’ brief flirtation with a winning record may have
disappeared in last week’s agonizing OT loss at Wake Forest but
they’ve gained a world of respect under new coach David Cutcliffe,
having won as many games this season – four – as they did in FOUR
YEARS under previous leader Ted Roof. Things aren’t going quite as
well in Raleigh where the ‘Tom O’Brien Experiment’ continues to sour:
the Pack’s 2-6 SU record in ’08 puts them at 7-11 overall under the
formerly-successful Boston College head man. But a trip to the ATS
archives tells us that NC State’s victory drought is about to come to
a much-needed end. For starters, the Pack has ruled this series with
an iron paw, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings SU. State was also
favored in 12 of those 13 games – and the one time they were made
the pooch, the Lupines responded with an outright win. The Pack has
also compiled a solid 9-3 ATS mark as dogs versus a foe off a SU loss
and chief wolf O’Brien removes any lingering doubt with his perfect
5-0 SU and ATS record as an underdog of less than 7 points playing
with rest. As for Duke, OT losers have failed miserably the following
week as conference home chalk, going 18-36-2 against the number,
including 8-22 off a SUATS loss. The Devils have also been left blue in
their last dozen attempts as favorites, posting a poor 3-9 SU and 2-10
ATS record. O’Brien temporarily silences the naysayers with a big ACC
win here.

UPSET GAME OF THE WEEK
Oklahoma St over TEXAS TECH by 6
How does the Big 12 keep doing it? Every week the conference conjures
up a primetime marquee matchup with national championship
implications – and this Saturday is certainly no exception. The Red
Raiders, of course, remained unbeaten after an electrifying last-second
win over #1 Texas and the Cowboys prepped for this showdown with
a 59-17 surgical dissection of Iowa State. And just like last week, this
heavyweight affair features a pair of quarterbacks worthy of Heisman
contention, Tech’s Graham Harrell (474 yards passing and 2 TDs vs.
Texas) and OSU’s Zac Robinson (395 yards passing against ISU). For the
stat freaks who point out that Okie State’s last win at Lubbock came
way back in 1944, we’ll counter with the fact that the Red Raiders had
NEVER beaten a No. 1 ranked opponent until last week – a scenario
that brings our ‘BRILLIANT DISGUISE’ angle from Playbook #9 to the
forefront. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys are 3-0-1 as conference road dogs
of 7 or fewer points and have carved out a superb 9-1 ATS mark when
playing off a SU Big 12 home win of 21 or more points. Let’s be honest:
the Red Raiders’ last second win over the Longhorns was nothing short
of miraculous and in this week’s battle of 500-yard offenses, we look
for Mike Leach’s magic to finally run out.

Florida over VANDERBILT by 21
A big letdown is always a possibility following a huge revenge win like
Florida’s 49-10 humiliation of Georgia but this Gator team looks too loaded
at every position to lose focus here… unless all-world QB Tim Tebow’s wobbly
ankle becomes a sore point of contention. For long-suffering Vanderbilt fans,
this year has an all-too-familiar look – a fast start followed by a devastating
late-season fl op. The Commodores appeared to be bowl-bound last year but
dropped their fi nal four games to keep them in Nashville for the holidays.
Right on cue, this year’s squad bolted out to a 5-0 start but has folded in
three straight, keeping them on the outside looking in at the postseason
promised land. We all know the Commies don’t have a snowball’s chance
of beating the mighty Gators SU but with a 5-0 ATS record off a week of
rest and a 14-4-1 ATS mark as SEC dogs off a SU favorite loss, Vandy has a
legitimate chance at covering the big number. Urban Meyer’s lone trip to
central Tennessee with his Gators resulted in a narrow 25-19 win in 2006
and with Florida playing the meat in a Georgia/South Carolina sandwich, UF
could be in for a real struggle today.

4* BEST BET
SOUTH CAROLINA over Arkansas by 20
Speaking of Florida coaches, former Gainesville legend Steve Spurrier
enters this matchup with an impressive 92-58-2 ATS college headcoaching
career when squaring off with a conference foe, including 4-0
when playing with double-exact revenge. The Hogs gained a bit more
cred for themselves and the SEC when they knocked off previously
unbeaten Tulsa last Saturday, grabbing the lead on a 96-yard kickoff
return late in the third quarter then keeping the Golden Hurricane
off the scoreboard in the final period. However, hidden in the glow of
victory was the ugly truth that Arky got whipped in the stats (528-435)
and fi rst-year head coach Bobby Petrino has NEVER grabbed the cash
when both teams enter off a SU win and Bobby-boy loses the contest
SU (0-5). We’re aware that South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia is not
100% but backup Chris Smelley is an able replacement. In terms of
scheduling, it couldn’t get much better for Spurrier’s team: the Hogs
come in nice and fat off a home upset win and South Carolina suits up
for its Last Home Game playing with double revenge. Razorbacks get
cold-cocked in Columbia.

Georgia over KENTUCKY by 14
The Dawgs turned in one of the season’s most disappointing performances
last week against Florida, a 49-10 disaster that had Georgia coach Mark Richt
questioning his team’s effort. “I thought there was fi ght in us,” lamented
Richt but after QB Matthew Stafford’s costly third-quarter interception
changed a potential 14-10 Georgia deficit to a 21-3 Gators lead, it was ‘Game
Over’ at the Cocktail Party. However, if anyone can revive an emotionally
distraught team to return to the business at hand, it’s Richt. He owns an
astonishing 28-4 SU record as Bulldogs’ head coach playing on the road (21-
11 ATS) and has cashed in five of seven meetings with the Bluegrass Cats.
Thanks to Georgia’s blowout loss and Kentucky’s SU dog win at Mississippi
State, the number on today’s matchup show up a bit more reasonable. And
with Kentucky just 1-4 ATS as dogs playing with conference revenge, we’ll
look for UGA to rebound with a vengeance.

Bowling Green over OHIO U by 6
Here we go again… a pair of MAC East squads trying to salvage their seasons,
only it’s too late for Ohio to do anything but play the role of spoiler. The
BeeGees show up with a 4-5 SU record but they can reach the conference
championship game if they run the table and Akron stumbles against
Buffalo. Notching a win in Game One of its final three looks like a strong
possibility for Bowling Green: the Falcons have completely dominated this
series, going 8-1 ATS overall and visiting the pointspread winner’s circle in
their last four visits to Peden Stadium. The visitors are also fueled by the
fire of revenge from last year’s 38-27 loss to Ohio, the BeeGees’ only home
loss of the season. Head coach Frank Solich does own a 4-1 ATS record as a
conference home dog with the Bobbies but the feeling here is the Cats are
essentially clawless. Ohio has failed to win at home against a single lined
opponent in 2008 and we think they’ll come up empty again.

BYU over San Diego St by 38
It was a Japanese Admiral commenting on the destruction of Pearl Harbor
who supposedly uttered the line, “I fear we have awakened a sleeping
giant.” Don’t look now but we’ve got a similar situation on our hands this
weekend with BYU. The Cougars have taken two games to recover from
their loss to TCU but playing their Final Home Game of 2008 against the
worst offense west of Auburn… well, let’s just say the Mormons are ready to
resume the mission. It doesn’t hurt the Cougars’ cause that they’re 5-0 ATS
recently as home chalk of 24 or more points and have covered three straight
against the Aztecs at Lavell Edwards Stadium. Diego’s head coach, Chuck
Long, always prays in the direction of Idaho these days: SDSU’s lone win this
season came over the hapless Vandals. The sun worshippers can also claim
the dubious distinction of being the only team in college football this year
to gain 600 yards in one game and just 85 in the next. We’re leaning more
to the lower end of the spectrum in this game, especially since SDSU is 0-5
ATS away from the surf when playing with conference revenge. Look for the
Cougars to awaken from their slumber against the Aztecs in a big way.

BOISE ST over Utah St by 28
If TCU has managed to sully Utah’s perfect record before this game kicks
off, Boise State will officially don the crown of BCS Buster – but only if the
Broncos win out against four beatable foes remaining in their path. Utah
State represents the first of those obstacles, a team currently putting the
finishing touches on the latest in a long line of losing seasons. The Aggies got
pulverized by the Broncs last year, 52-0, and have been buried both SU and
ATS in six consecutive ‘games’ versus the boys in blue. Things look even more
promising when we get a look at these results: BSU is 5-0 ATS as favorites
of 30 > points, 8-1 ATS home off BB road games and 6-1 ATS home versus a
conference foe looking to get even for last year. But you know what? Even
with all the good home field numbers, we’re not inclined to lay this many
points with an undefeated team in a Homecoming affair… especially when
we’re not working with a ‘Last Home Game’ scenario. Pass.

Oklahoma over TEXAS A&M by 18
That was some initiation Sooners’ head coach Bob Stoops dished out to
new Huskers’ head man Bo Pelini: OU jumped on Nebraska with a 35-0
first quarter and rolled up 62 total points with alarming ease. That kind
of shellacking would mean a lot more to us if Oklahoma didn’t have its
Revenge Game of the Year waiting on deck against Texas Tech. Mike Leach’s
Red Raiders tagged the Sooners with one of two regular season losses in
’07 and you know Oklahoma will be looking ahead to that rumble at some
time before or during this date with the Aggies. Currently just 4-5, Texas
A&M could use a 13th or 14th man this season but they HAVE fashioned a
two-game winning streak and own enough talent to throw a scare into the
Sooners if the breaks go their way. The Aggies are 6-1-1 ATS playing their
Last Home Game and have covered six of their last seven tries as double-digit
home dogs – plus this week’s INCREDIBLE STAT points us in A&M’s direction.

RICE over Army by 3
Just one look at the Owls’ recent offensive barrage – 45.3 PPG in their last
three games – and you wouldn’t question Rice laying doubles to a game
but outmanned Army squad, right? We look at it like this: why does the
linemaker continue to undervalue the Cadets? The Black Knights have held
three of their last four foes to season low yards and outgained Air Force
250-174 in last week’s heart-breaking 16-7 loss. By comparison, the Owls
have allowed season high yards to their opponents in four games this year
(including last week versus UTEP) and continue to fail at home against nonconference
foes, going just 1-7 ATS. Don’t fall in step with the public on this
one and lay points with an unwarranted Homecoming favorite. March to the
beat of a different drummer and go military here.

COLORADO over Iowa St by 11
Let’s see… two weeks now since Colorado gave Dan Hawkins a contract
extension and the University’s reward has been a pair of losses where the
Buffs were battered by a combined score of 82-17. With Oklahoma State on
deck and a road game at Lincoln to close out the season, Hawkins knows
he’d better get things right here or he could become part of the growing
exodus of college head coaches looking for employment. Normally we’d be
leaning to the underdog in this matchup but the pitiful Cyclones couldn’t
cash against the Cowboys as a recipient in the usually reliable BUBBLE
BURST role last week, so we’re not sure we want them here against a band
of Buffaloes needing two wins in three games to become bowl eligible.
Still, we wouldn’t want to lay doubles with the bison and watch Boulder
disappear under a foot of snow before game time. Look elsewhere.

SMU over Memphis by 3
If you read our RUNNING ON EMPTY ‘Betcha Didn’t Know’ article on page
2, you know SMU is a Homecoming home dog that’s very much to our
liking. Sure, the Mustangs pulled a no-show against Navy last week but
they’ve ponied up with big-time efforts in their last two home games,
scoring 38 and 31 points in narrow losses to Houston and Tulsa. Memphis
is a benchmark of mediocrity this season, losing three in a row to the
spread before last Saturday’s upset of Southern Miss. The Tigers are also
toothless when it comes to point-laying: they’re an awful 1-4-1 ATS in
their last six as road favorites and an even worse 1-6 ATS overall as chalk.
SMU head coach June Jones looks to be laying in the weeds here with a
12-3-1 ATS record when playing off back-to-back losses so we won’t be
surprised when the Ponies head back to the corral with their second SU
win of the year.

MISSOURI over Kansas St by 28
Gary Pinkel will sure be glad to see Columbia today. The last two trips he
and his Tigers took away from the cage resulted in a 56-31 blowout loss to
Texas and a 31-28 near ambush by Baylor. Gary will be glad to check out
these numbers, too. Missouri is 7-1 ATS at home versus a Big 12 foe seeking
revenge (13-2 ATS against all teams in that role) and 10-2-2 ATS as conference
favorites of 15 or more points. Don’t stop there, Gary. Take a gander at the
3-8 ATS failure by the series visitor lately… and don’t overlook the fact that
Kansas State was sliced and diced for 110 points and 1019 yards in its last
two games versus Oklahoma and Kansas. Gary says this looks to be more of
the same and we’re in no position to argue. Smells like roast Wildcats from
over here…

FLORIDA ST over Clemson by 10
The annual Bowden Bowl is no more. Following Tommy Bowden’s
departure from Clemson a few weeks ago, Bobby the Elder must now be
content to face the Tigers’ interim leader, Dabo Swinney. But don’t dismiss
Dabo just because of his odd moniker: he had enough sense to seek out
the counsel of Clemson football’s grand oracle, Danny Ford, and Swinney’s
resulting game plan for Boston College was good enough to snap a 50-
year skid against the Eagles – and give Dabo his first career victory with
the Tiger Paw. Meanwhile, FSU’s Bowden was watching his 7th ranked
national rush defense get exposed by Georgia Tech’s triple option attack,
giving up 288 ground yards and four rushing TDs in a 3-point loss to the
Yellow Jackets. Bobby’s boys should fare a bit better this week against a
more familiar offensive attack, a notion confirmed by the ‘Noles’ 4-1 ATS
mark in the last fi ve Clemson games at Tallahassee. The Tigers come to
town dragging a 3-33 ATS ball and chain, forged when they lose SU to an
ACC revenger, and they’ve also struggled to an anemic 1-5 ATS lately as
conference road dogs of 7 or more points. Hmmm… Bobby off a SU loss
with triple revenge against the school that just cast his son into the void?
Too good to pass up!

EAST CAROLINA over Marshall by 10
ECU fan will probably have to seek out a therapist before the end of this
crazy season. The Pirates opened with an exhilarating 3-0 start, followed by
sobering 0-3 skein, and most recently a modest 2-game win streak, the last
in OT against Central Florida. Most disturbing is the Pirates’ timber-shivering
1-5 ATS performance in their past six games – after going 28-11 ATS under
Skip Holtz in 39 prior contests. This is a huge game for the Herd if they
want to go bowling in ’08 but 4-4 Marshall arrives off an ‘inside-out’ win
over Houston, the visitors’ SEVENTH consecutive ITS loss this year (only stat
win in season opener vs. Illinois State). East Carolina’s loss to the Herd cost
the Pirates a trip to last year’s C-USA title game but they can gain a double
measure of revenge here since a win also makes them bowl eligible for ’08.
If Holtz can right the ship over the coming weeks, ECU could win out and
land an upper level bowl bid.

NEBRASKA over Kansas by 3
Forget about last week’s 62-28 shucking of the helpless Huskers by Oklahoma;
there’s a huge talent gap between OU and most other teams. However,
Kansas is a different story. In case you’ve forgotten, Nebraska was slaughtered
last year at Lawrence by a 76-39 final, the most points ever allowed by the
Huskers in a football game (allowed less than 76 total points combined in 35
different seasons in school history, including 1902 when they outscored the
opposition 186-0 en route to a 10-0 season!). The Jayhawks usually come back
from Lincoln minus a feather or two – Kansas is 0-19 SU on this field since
1969 – and KU’s embarrassing 0-17 SU and 3-13-1 ATS mark after Kansas State
versus a winning foe since 1976 looks like too much history to overcome.
Nebraska needs one more win to become bowl eligible and they get it here.

Penn St over IOWA by 3
Is this the week that Penn State takes a tumble? The 9-0 Nittany Lions are a
‘go against’ play in this week’s ‘As The Noose Tightens’ SMART BOX on page
3 – and if that’s not enough to get your vote, check out these qualifications.
The Nits are just 2-7 ATS versus a Big 10 opponent with revenge, 2-5 ATS
after road games with Ohio State and 2-5 ATS as rested favorites. Despite last
week’s loss at Illinois, Kirk Ferentz finally has Iowa playing more like the teams
that went to six bowls in seven seasons than last year’s 6-6 underachievers
that shoveled snow in Iowa City on New Year’s Day. The Hawkeyes bring
along a stout 5-1 ATS mark as home dogs of 7 or more points and their
12th ranked rush ‘D’ has allowed just two lined opponents more than 100
rushing yards this season. Joe Pa knows he’s home free if he can subdue the
Hawkeyes but his team will have to conquer an Iowa defense that’s given up
a season high of just 27 points in one game – and under immense pressure
at a hostile venue, too. We’re hangin’ with the homeys today.

BOSTON COLLEGE over Notre Dame by 6
From their throwback coaches to their style-less uniforms, you just knew if
Notre Dame and Pitt were to slug it out for six hours instead of three, they’d
STILL be tied. Mercifully, the 36-33 Panther win took just four overtimes to
decide but Notre Dame now faces the dilemma of shaking off a tough loss
(Irish led 17-3 at halftime) while hitting the road for a battle royal with the
Boston Catholics. You already know we have little interest in OT losers the
following week, especially a team that lost to BC in 2007 as 13.5-point home
dogs, and the Dame’s 5-3 SU record has come at the expense of opponents
who’ve struggled to a combined SU mark of just 11-33. The red-faced Eagles
scored 21 unanswered points against Clemson last Saturday to erase a 17-0
halftime deficit but they let the Tigers score the game’s final 10 points to
hand BC its second home loss of the season. With the Beantown Boys a solid
8-1 SU and ATS at home versus an opponent off a SU favorite loss, we’ll trust
in J-God to deliver the win and cover today.

TENNESSEE over Wyoming by 24
After scoring just 15 total points in ugly back-to-back SEC losses, Tennessee
will welcome mediocre Wyoming to Knoxville with open arms this weekend.
The only thing is the Vols may not have a rudder to steer the ship. After 16-plus
seasons on the sidelines in Knoxville, word is that head coach Phillip Fulmer
has been handed the dreaded pink slip following UT’s “unacceptable” 3-6
mark in ’08. Before this bomb was dropped, the Vols were still entertaining
thoughts of postseason play: three wins in their last three games would have
qualifi ed them as bowl-berth beggars, carrying a 6-6 record in their cup,
but now? We sure don’t want Wyoming, a team that was on an 0-15-1 ATS
losing slide until last week’s win over the lowly Aztecs but neither are we
interested in disinterested favorites with a lame-duck head coach. One more
thing: Tennessee is a money-burning machine as a home favorite, going 7-15
ATS in its last 22 tries. Like the Vols without Phillip, you’re on your own.

5* BEST BET
LSU over Alabama by 11
From laughingstock to No. 1 in less than two seasons – that’s quite
an accomplishment for Alabama head coach Nick Saban. But now the
Nictator must return to Baton Rouge and if our handicapping expertise
has something to say about it, the Tide looks to be in a heap of trouble
down in Cajun country. For openers, Bama is a SMART BOX fade (‘As
The Noose Tightens’) this week while the host Bengals qualify as a
‘play on’ team from last week’s ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX.
The Tide usually falters in their Last Road Game in a season, going just
1-5 ATS lately, a stat that fits just fine with LSU’s strong 7-3 ATS mark as
home dogs of 10 or less points. Les ‘The Mad Hatter’ Miles has posted
six SU wins in eight tries at home when challenging an undefeated
foe (3-0 with the Tigers) and has already met his annual quota of SU
losses with two. This just in from our powerful database: defending
National Champions are 13-4-1 ATS as dogs versus opponents with
visions of being the next National Champ (undefeated), including 10-
1-1 if the foe is off a win of 15 or more points. Say goodbye to the
new No. 1; they call it Death Valley, right?

OREGON over Stanford by 14
Ducks were unceremoniously grounded at Cal last weekend, held to their
second lowest point total of the season by the feisty Bears. One look at
the pointspread credentials in today’s contest, however, and everything’s
coming up ‘duck’. Visiting Stanford is 0-3 ATS as a dog before a home date
with the Trojans, 1-4 ATS off a SU home conference win and 4-10 ATS as PAC
10 pups of 4 or more points playing with revenge. Oregon owns a recent 6-0
SU and ATS series edge, plus the Ducks are 5-1 ATS in the fi rst of back-to-back
games at Autzen Stadium and 10-2 ATS ad double-digit conference chalk.
We do have one concern: in the final three games of the last two seasons,
the feathered ones have spiraled downward to a 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS mark.
Uhh, make that one BIG concern…

Arizona St over WASHINGTON by 10
Huskies are officially the WORST team in college football, the only school
in division 1-A (we’re gonna keep calling it that until someone makes us
stop) to have NOT won a single game (0-8 after loss to USC). But as bad as
the Huskies may be, there’s no way we’re risking our hard-earned dough
on the Sun Devils as 2-TD road chalk! Much like Wake Forest, Arizona
State is also leaking oil, losing the stats in its last five games. Dennis
Erickson’s disappointing squad should snap its 6-game losing skein today
but a 2-9-1 ATS record in the Devils’ last dozen hardly inspires confidence
that they’ll get the money, too. Recently fi red U-dub head coach Ty
Willingham has managed an 8-6 SU and 11-3 ATS mark as a dog off a
SUATS loss against sub .666 opposition and we wouldn’t be surprised if
his team pulls together to play hard in Willingham’s fi nal four games.
Take it if you play it.

Hawaii over NEW MEXICO STATE by 3
Another late line thanks to a rash of injuries crippling the Aggies. Star QB
Chase Holbrook left last week’s game against Boise State and did not return;
NMSU also lost two wide receivers in the 49-0 annihilation by the Broncos.
The oddsmaker doesn’t have an easy task here considering Hawaii was
a 31-point favorite at home last year and laid 19 to the Aggies here two
years ago. Regardless of the fi nal price, we’re not enthused about playing a
Warrior team that lost 30-14 as 6-point road chalk against sorry Utah State
last week (UH also a poor 1-5 ATS in Last Road Games) – but neither do
we want a 3-5 New Mexico State outfit that’s playing its 9th straight game
without a breather. Pass.

HOUSTON over Tulane by 16
After a competitive start, the 2-6 Green Wave appear to be at low tide,
losing by 25 or more points in three of their last four outings. Tulane’s recent
0-5 SUATS mark in this series is just marginally worse than its 1-10 ATS log
as DD dogs against a foe off a SU favorite loss, numbers that nudge us in
Houston’s direction. The Cougars do bring the nation’s 4th ranked offense
into this matchup (530 YPG) with their only stat loss on the season coming
against powerful Oklahoma State. But we do have a rule against playing
Homecoming favorites and you know what usually happens when you stray
from the rules. Bad things, man.

AIR FORCE over Colorado St by 7
Colorado State lost a cruel game at BYU last week when the Cougars
marched 76 yards in the fi nal 1:14, scoring on 17-yard TD pass with 22
seconds remaining. There was much less drama at West Point where the
Flyboys managed just 10 fi rst downs and were outyarded by Army but
somehow eked out a 16-7 win over the Cadets. Surprisingly, the Rams have
been favored in eight of the last nine series showdowns, winning outright
the only time they sported the dog collar. Air Force is losing altitude lately,
losing the stat battle in each of its last two wins, and owns a miserable 1-6
ATS log as home chalk in post-military operations (after Army and/or Navy).
CSU desperately needs this game to keep alive its faint postseason hopes and
could catch Air Force up in the clouds over next week’s huge home game
versus BYU. Take the points if you play.

UCLA over Oregon St by 1
Those who ignore history will look at the 5-3 Beavers laying a TD to the 3-5
Bruins and immediately side with OSU. Not so fast, my friend! Oregon State
has been skinned both SU and ATS in five consecutive series games with the
Bruins, losing the last three outright as favorites. The dam-builders have also
struggled away from the pond this season, going 1-3 SU with their lone win
coming over woeful Washington. Despite an expected fi nal game thrashing
by Southern Cal, UCLA can still become bowl eligible by winning today, then
beating Washington and Arizona State. Bruins are money in the bank in the
role of home underdogs, clawing their way to an 8-4 SU and 11-1 ATS in
their last dozen tries. And if you’re still wavering, UCLA’s Rick Neuheisel is the
answer to this week’s TRIVIA TEASER on page 2. What more could you want?

Arizona over WASHINGTON ST by 36
Every time Las Vegas puts out a line on the Cougars, the bookies of America
collectively wince: seven times Wazzu has taken on the oddsmaker – and
suffered seven indisputable KO’s. Considering they’ve been beaten by an
incredible average of 60 PPG in three straight PAC 10 embarrassments,
Washington State may need more than the puny 39 points they’re being
offered to hang with the resurgent Desert Cats. But a look under Arizona’s
hood tells us the Wildcats are leaking some mid-season oil themselves, losing
the stats in their last three games. That’s too bad considering the two teams
that will vie for this season’s Apple Cup – the Cougars and Huskies -– are 1-16
SU combined and lost last week by a combined margin of 114-0! First-year
Wazzu coach Paul Wulff gets an ‘F’ in defense this season: his Cougars have
been outscored 350-33 in their six PAC 10 contests in ’08. No Wildcats for us,
though, since Arizona is the runnerup for this week’s Incredible Stat. Yes, the
Wildcats have not won a road game by 40 points since 1952, covering a span
of 249 games! That alone is enough to keep us away. And in case you didn’t
know – and we’re sure you did not – the Cougars have actually held two
teams to season low yards this season, including Oklahoma State! As Matt
Damon is known to say, “How do you like them apples!”

Southern Miss over C Florida by 3
Even after unloading on UAB in a 70-14 massacre last week, Southern Miss
fi nds itself 3-6 and gasping for postseason breath (reaching a bowl required
much less effort when ousted HC Jeff Bower patrolled the USM sidelines).
The Eagles would need to win their final three games to gain bowl eligibility
(here, home vs. ECU and at SMU) – but don’t dismiss the possibility. Opening
as a 1-point favorite over the Knights, Smissy stands 6-1 ATS recently as road
chalk but the visitors have also lost SU in the favorite role against UCF for
two straight years. Bright House Networks Stadium has dimmed considerably
this season thanks to the Knights’ disappointing 2-6 record and with UCF’s
offense currently on life support (14.3 PPG L3), we can only look in one
direction here.

TEXAS over Baylor by 20
Longhorns mounted a stirring comeback against Texas Tech in last week’s
epic battle but they couldn’t keep the lid on future NFL star Michael Crabtree
when it counted, and the Red Raider WR snared the game winner with just
ONE second left to play. Now, cursed with the ill fortune of the BUBBLE
BURST scenario, Texas must regroup quickly to deal with a surprisingly game
Baylor squad that lost by just 3 points to Missouri. The Bears are supported
by a 7-3 ATS mark in favor of the series visitor and own an identical 7-3
ATS record as Big 12 dogs if the line climbs to 27 or more points. True,
Baylor has been ripped for 51 PPG in its last nine games with the Longhorns
but Art Briles appears to be cookin’ up something special at Waco. Much
like Missouri, Texas may take a game or two to shake off Saturday night’s
heartbreaking loss at Lubbock. We’ll buck Bevo here and hope the dog way
is the right way.

WEST VIRGINIA over Cincinnati by 6
WVU QB Pat White put the team on his back against UConn last week
and engineered a 28-0 second half blitzkrieg that humbled the Huskies
and moved West Virginia back to its customary position atop the Big East.
The Mounties are in a bad spot here, though, covering just two of their
last 12 tries as home favorites off a DD ATS win against an avenging foe.
Cincinnati moved to 6-2 with last week’s methodical 24-10 win over USF and
head Bearcat Brian Kelly owns a strong 15-7-2 ATS mark taking points, a
number that sweetens to 11-2-2 ATS when made a dog of 12 points or less.
Kelly is also 5-1 ATS versus a foe off back-to-back SUATS wins and has been
mentioned as a possible candidate for the Tennessee position should UT fire
Phillip Fulmer. Bearcats befuddle the Hillbillies in Morgantown.

Louisville over PITTSBURGH by 1
Hey, you think Steve Kragthorpe is on the hot seat after losing two years in
a row to Syracuse? This from our good friend, the retired 5* General Tom
Scott: “THE FIRE UNDER HIS ASS MAKES THE TOWERING INFERNO LOOK
LIKE A PILOT LIGHT!” Fortunately for Stevie boy, the host Panthers show up
as a ‘Play Against’ in this week’s ‘Anti Irish’ AWESOME ANGLE. Pittsburgh
has failed to cash a ticket in its last six games at the Ketchup Bowl and head
coach Wannstedt owns a certifi ably bad 2-7 ATS record as home chalk of less
than 10 points. Louie laid 10.5 points to the Panthers on this field two years
ago and let’s face it: Kragthorpe needs this game like Ma needs Donna.

MINNESOTA over Michigan by 3
It’s been a season of ‘firsts’ under new coach Rich Rodriquez but not the
kind everyone expected. Now Rich can add ‘first losing season since 1967’
and ‘first time in 34 seasons to miss a bowl game’ to his litany of failure with
the Dazed-and-Blue. And we’re sure it’s been awhile since Michigan carried
a 2-7 SU record after nine games while Minnesota owned a mirror opposite
7-2 mark. We do know for sure that the Wolverines are 35-3 SU versus the
rodents since 1968 and they were favored in all 38 get-togethers. Minny is a
lifeless 0-4 against the number as chalk following a game with Northwestern
and may be hobbled by the condition of star WR Eric Decker (seen wearing
a walking boot after spraining his ankle against the Wildcats). Now that the
‘pressure’ is finally off Michigan, we think they’ll respond by posting just
their SECOND ATS WIN of the season.

USC over California by 14
Wrapped around a 17-10 win versus Arizona in the desert, USC unleashed
a scorched-earth destruction of the state of Washington, obliterating WSU,
69-0 and U-dub, 56-0. But these Bears ain’t chopped liver; in fact, they’re
a ‘Puttin’ On The Stats’ SMART BOX dog and all of us appreciate a good
opportunity to expand our intellect. Cal has plundered the Trojan treasury in
five of its six most recent trips to the Coliseum and has dropped only one of
the last six games in series by more than 14 points. Maintaining their hold on
the purse strings won’t be an easy task for the Golden Bears: USC is 10-1 ATS
off a SU home win of over 40 points, plus the Trojan ‘D’ has held all 8 foes
to season low – or 2nd low yards – this season. Jeff Tedford’s team fought
USC to the gun last year before falling by a mere 7 points; the margin will be
slightly higher this year but still low enough to ring the register.

SAN JOSE ST over La Tech by 12
In a quiet, efficient manner, the Spartan defense has been unheralded this
season. Currently ranked No. 18 in the nation, San Jose’s stop-troops have
held four foes to season low – or 2nd low yards, allowing an average of 295
DYPG. That’s why they will be bowling at season’s end. This week, though,
they tackle Louisiana Tech who is fresh off last week’s 38-35 upset slugfest
win over Fresno State. That doesn’t bode well for the Bulldogs as the gang
from Ruston is a pathetic 0-16-1 ATS in games off a win in which they scored
35 or more points! With Sparty a super-sharp 11-1 ATS at home against .500
or less opposition, look for SJSU to pad its bowl resume tonight.

New Mexico over UNLV by 3
An agonizing spot for both teams with the Lobos playing in their eleventh
straight game without rest while the Rebels look to put a halt to a 5-game
losing skid after starting the season with 3 wins in their first 4 games. Bad
new for the Vegas faithful is that QB Omar Clayton is expected to miss
this game with injuries. The best New Mexico can do is to win its final two
games of the campaign and hope to find a bowl suitor. Given the Lobos’
dominance in this series (7-2 ATS last 9 games, including 4-0 the last 4 here),
look for the clock to run out on the Rebels.

ADDED GAMES

TROY over W Kentucky by 21
Both teams failed miserably last Saturday as the Trojans were tripped
up as 10.5-point road chalk at La Monroe while the Hilltoppers laid the
‘Mother Goose’ of all eggs in an 11-point home loss to North Texas as 18-
point choices. As a result, Troy fell to 2nd place in the Sun Belt standings
and needs to win out in order to capture the conference crown. With this
being the first of a three-game season-ending homestand, the men of Troy
control their own destiny. Rest assured they will be looking to impress bowl
scouts down the stretch. And if this line stretches to -20 by the weekend,
note that the Trojans are 3-0 SU and ATS as favorites of 20 or more points
in their school history, by an average win margin of 35 PPG. No Hillfloppers
for us.

FLA ATLANTIC over N Texas by 20
This will be a test of nerves, for sure. As in do “you have enough nerve to
grab 20-plus points with a team that is 0-4 SU in this series with no loss
coming by more than 10 points but knowing that team is 0-8 ATS in games
off a win”? Or can you man-up and lay the points with a team that is 1-7
ATS at home against losing teams, one of which has NEVER been favored by
more than 14 points in its school history? As Forrest Gump was known to say,
“Ugly is as ugly does.” And we don’t want either of these sick pups.

LA LAFAYETTE over Utep by 13
Don’t look now but guess what team sits atop the Sun Belt Conference with
just three weeks remaining? If you said the Ragin’ Cajuns, you are correct.
It’s where the nation’s No. 8 ranked offense (491 YPG), keyed by a powerful
ground game averaging 312 RYPG, has led them. One more win and La La
wraps up bowl eligibility and, despite stepping outside the conference, they
should get that here. Granted, the Miners are 7-1 ATS as dogs after scoring
35 or more points against an opponent off back-to-back wins. We simply
question UTEP’s late-season, dead in the water motive.

Arkansas St over FLA INT’L by 10
We’ve been licking our chops waiting for the right spot to fade these
overrated, piteous Panthers and this looks to be it. The Red Wolves were
ambushed at top-ranked Alabama last week, thus setting the table for this
play. That’s because conference road favorites off a shutout road loss are
18-3 SU and 16-5 ATS in their very next game. Weighing both team’s stats
we find FIU –117 net YPG as opposed to ASU’s + 62 net YPG on the season.
No surprise whatsoever to see the Pussycats fall to 0-6 SU and ATS at home
against an opponent off a loss in their school history.

MID TENN ST over La Monroe by 1
Both teams will need to win out should they wish to don bowling shirts at
season’s end. Don’t count on it. While Monroe is a nifty 19-6 ATS on the
conference road, including 9-1 ATS when off back-to-back losses, they are
winless on the highway this season. Meanwhile, the Blue Raiders are a
Homecoming favorite that is ‘leakin’ oil’ profusely (lost the stats in each of
their last five games). Take it or leave it.

NOTE: Home team is shown in ALL CAPS. PLAYBOOK
selection appears in Bold. Should we pass or not have a
strong opinion on a game, neither team will be bolded.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Hi everyone...

Thank you all for the Powersweep links and posting the other newsletters.

I am a senior on fixed income and I am in with 19 others each putting in $5 a week (stop laughing hee, hee) into the NFL pool.

I have cleaned up three times so far this year thanks to all the newsletter advice found here!!!

I have been very wise with the winnings - declaring two with the missus and buying her a nice present. I have so far forgotten to tell her about win number three - ahem - but have told her I will take her to Montanas Steakhouse for dinner with my next win...

...Peter

Welcome to the RX Peter! Glad the info the members put up in this thread is helping you and good job with the spending of your winnings!!

GL the rest of the way and good job to the members that keep this thread going every week!:aktion033

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly's

<!-- / icon and title --><!-- message -->RATING 5 USC (-17½) over California
RATING 4 VIRGINIA (+3½) over Wake Forest
RATING 3 SAN JOSE STATE (-8½) over Louisiana Tech
RATING 2 NORTH CAROLINA (-4) over Georgia Tech
RATING 2 UCLA (+7½) over Oregon State
RATING 1 MICHIGAN STATE (-9) over Purdue
RATING 1 WEST VIRGINIA (-8) over Cincinnati
WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 5, 2008
BALL STATE (-9½) Northern Illinois 7:00 PM
Ball State is 8-0 but the schedule is rather suspect as nonconference
wins against Navy and Indiana look much less
impressive at this point in the season and four MAC wins came
against teams that are a combined 10-25. Last season turnovers
enabled a narrow Ball State victory on the road in this long-standing
rivalry and the road team has won each of the last four meetings.
Northern Illinois is 5-2 ATS on the season and the Huskies have
played a much tougher schedule while posting far superior
defensive numbers. NIU is allowing just 267 yards per game and
this could be the end of the run for the Cardinals. BALL ST BY 3
AKRON (-4½) Toledo 7:00 PM
Akron has not played a game in over two weeks and despite low
expectations at the beginning of the year the Zips could be a bowl
team by the end of the year with four winnable games remaining. It
has been a horribly disappointing year for Toledo, a team that
normally contends in the MAC. Both defenses have struggled this
season but Akron has been the more productive offense. The extra
preparation time should pay dividends for Akron and Toledo has
really struggled on the road in recent years. AKRON BY 10
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2008
VIRGINIA TECH (NL) Maryland 6:45 PM
After consecutive conference road losses this is a huge game for
Virginia Tech. The Hokies are just 2-2 in ACC play but every other
team in the Coas tal division also has at least two losses and both
Tech losses came against Atlantic division teams. Maryland is the
lone team in the ACC with just one conference loss as the Terps are
allowing just 19 points per game on the year. The QB situation for
Virginia Tech is still uncertain at this point with recent injuries to both
starters but the Hokies are desperate. VIRGINIA TECH BY 10
Tcu (-2) UTAH 7:00 PM
The Utes are 9-0 on the year but TCU would be in just as strong of
BCS-busting position with a win in this game. Utah dominated the
yardage totals last week but only won by three. Utah has won four of
the last five meetings between these teams. Both teams have top
ten defensive numbers against the run but TCU has been dominant,
allowing only 38 yards per game. Utah has scored at least 31 points
in every home game this season and while many may view the Utes
prime for an upset loss TCU will be facing a second straight road
game off a short week. TCU might be the superior team but Utah is
in a much better situation and the Horned Frogs have very few
quality road wins in recent years. UTAH BY 7
FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 7, 2008
FRESNO STATE (-2) Nevada 8:00 PM
Since the opening win at Rutgers, Fresno State has failed to cover
in seven consecutive games. The Bulldogs could not pull out the
outright win last week and it appears that Fresno State will go
another year without a WAC title. The Fresno State defense features
one of the worst rush defenses in the nation, allowing 208 yards per
game and that is not promising heading into this match-up. Nevada
rushes for 305 yards per game, the second best average in the
nation. This series has been decided by nine points or less each of
the last three years and another close game is likely. FRESNO BY 4
SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 8, 2008
RUTGERS (-14½) Syracuse 11:00 AM
Only three Big East teams are not bowl eligible and this game
features two of those teams. Syracuse is 2-6 on the season while
Rutgers is just 3-5. In great contrast to previous Rutgers squads, the
Knights lack a solid running game but after a horrible start to the
season Rutgers has won back-to-back games over two of the better
teams in the conference. Syracuse enters this game coming off a
nice upset win over Louisville, the first FBS win of the season for the
Orange. Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in the last four games and the offense
is showing a bit more potential. Rutgers has delivered solid
defensive numbers and now has momentum. RUTGERS BY 17
Wisconsin (-10) INDIANA 11:00 AM
In a season that has gone poorly last week’s loss was devastating
for Wisconsin. The Badgers led by eleven with about nine minutes to
go in the game yet somehow managed to lose. Wisconsin outrushed
Michigan State by 256 yards in the effort and it will be tough
to bounce back mentally. This will be Indiana’s final home game of
the season and Hoosiers will try to shake off a narrow loss last
week. Indiana’s running game has been nearly as productive as
Wisconsin’s this season but the Badgers should own a defensive
edge. Wisconsin is tough to trust as a road favorite. UW BY 7
Ohio State (-11) NORTHWESTERN 11:00 AM
The Wildcats moved to 7-2 last week with an upset win despite
playing with its back-up QB. Ohio State is also 7-2 on the season
but the Buckeyes have just one Big Ten loss. Ohio State has won
the last three meetings by combined total score of 160-24 but
Northwestern did upset then #7 ranked Ohio State in 2004. Ohio
State is coming off a bye week but the Buckeyes are 2-6 ATS this
season with really only one impressively dominant game all season
long. Northwestern’s offense has some dangerous options and the
Wildcats could keep this game interesting. OHIO STATE BY 10
MICHIGAN STATE (-9) Purdue 11:00 AM
Last week’s win over Michigan was a huge one for Purdue in what
has been a very disappointing year. Purdue has won seven of nine
meetings in this series under Coach Tiller but it could be tough to
deliver after last week’s big win. MSU was a bit flat last week after
beating Michigan and RB Ringer appears to be worn out after huge
early season numbers. Michigan State has a lot to play for sitting at
5-1 in Big Ten play and still having a shot at Penn State to close the
season so the Spartans should take last week’s good fortune and
momentum into another win this week. MICHIGAN ST BY 17
NORTH CAROLINA (-4) Georgia Tech 11:00 AM
UNC has effectively battled through injuries and the Tar Heels
remain in the thick of the ACC race. Georgia Tech delivered a huge
win last week over Florida State and the Yellow Jackets also remain
a contender in the conference. Georgia Tech beat North Carolina
last season 27-25 at home despite losing the turnover battle. Both
defenses have solid numbers this season but North Carolina has
played the tougher schedule with more success. Look for UNC to
come up with a big win coming off the bye week. UNC BY 13
Illinois (-7) Western Michigan @Detroit, MI 11:00 AM
The Illini were soundly out-gained on the ground last week but were
able to pull out the victory in a sloppy Big Ten affair. It could be
difficult to leave the conference for this game with Ohio State next
on the schedule. Western Michigan is 7-2 on the season and last
season the Broncos beat Iowa in Iowa City. Western Michigan owns
one of the top passing offenses in the nation and the Illinois defense
is allowing over 26 points per game on the year. WM BY 3
WAKE FOREST (-3½) Virginia 11:00 AM
The Demon Deacons have not impressed the last three weeks with
two losses and a very narrow home win last week. Still Wake Forest
has just two ACC losses to remain in conference contention. Virginia
has an impressive four-game win streak snapped with an OT loss
but the Cavaliers are still averaging just 17 points per game. Neither
team has been able to run the ball with consistent success but the
key factor in this game may be the Virginia pass rush as Wake
Forest has had protection problems. Wake Forest continues to
struggle in the favorite role now 8-17 the last 25. VIRGINIA BY 7
NC State (-4½) DUKE 2:30 PM
Duke is 4-4 on the season but last week’s loss will sting as the
Devils out-gained Wake Forest but had four turnovers in a threepoint
defeat. NC State has had two weeks to prepare for this game
and the Wolfpack are 0-4 in the ACC. Duke has been a significantly
superior defensive team on the year but the schedule has been a
factor in those numbers. NC State has not lost to Duke in the last
ten meetings and the bye week coupled with the emotional letdown
for the Devils should help continue that trend. NC State could be
coming together late in the year. NC STATE BY 6
TEXAS TECH (-3½) Oklahoma State 11:30 AM
These teams combined for over 1,300 yards of offense last season
and although this is a revenge spot for the Red Raiders the
magnitude of last week’s win creates a very tough situation this
week. Tech delivered in a last second upset for the biggest win of
school history last week against Texas and it will be extremely tough
to deliver a great performance this week. In a match-up of a great
rushing team against a great passing team the ground game
typically prevails and Oklahoma State also owns superior special
teams. Oklahoma State has an excellent track record in road games
this season, winning at Missouri and nearly winning at Texas
already this year. Tech is not used to this success. OSU BY 3
Florida (-23½) VANDERBILT 7:00 PM
This could be a flat spot for the Gators after coming up with a huge
in last week. Florida is 7-1 S/U and ATS on the season but the
Gators will be greatly overvalued after huge margins of victory the
last two weeks. Vanderbilt is allowing just 16 points per game and
although the offensive numbers are poor the Commodores have
found ways to stay in games. Vanderbilt has had two weeks to
prepare for this game while Florida will be celebrating last week’s
big win and hearing about how good they are. The Gators are just 5-
13 as road favorites since ’02. FLORIDA BY 17
SOUTH CAROLINA (-10) Arkansas 12:00 PM
The Gamecocks could be a team to watch in the closing weeks as
all three losses on the year came by narrow margins against quality
teams. Arkansas has quietly covered in four consecutive games
after a terrible start to the year and last week’s win was a big one for
the rebuilding program. After facing one of the worst defenses in the
nation last week Arkansas will face one of the best this week as
South Carolina is allowing only 250 yards and 15 points per game.
After giving up 48 points against Arkansas last season expect a
much better performance from the Gamecocks. SC BY 14
Georgia (-11½) KENTUCKY 11:30 AM
Georgia is just 2-5 ATS in the last seven games falling well short of
the lofty season expectations. The Bulldogs will be facing a third
straight non-home game this week and Kentucky has been a quality
defensive team, allowing just 17 points per game. Georgia’s
motivation may be suspect in this match-up after last week’s loss.
Georgia’s running game has not been as strong as expected this
season and the Bulldogs might struggle here. Kentucky beat
Georgia in the last home meeting and the Wildcats have been a
competitive team despite a limited offense. GEORGIA BY 7
Bowling Green (-2½) OHIO 1:00 PM
The Falcons caught some breaks early last week and held on for a
big win despite allowing close to 500 yards. Ohio has been a tough
team to pass against and the Bobcats might be able to slow down
the Bowling Green offense. Last season Ohio won 38-27 on the
road but turnovers were a key factor in that outcome. The Bobcats
have played six of nine games this season on the road and with a
long layoff before this game and finally playing a Saturday game at
home should help the cause. OHIO BY 3
BYU (-36½) San Diego State 1:00 PM
The Cougars entered the season with huge expectations but now
have lost ATS in five straight games and none of the wins on the
season look impressive at this point. San Diego State is 1-8 on the
year, making a case for the worst team in the nation. The Aztecs
can not run the ball and the defense is allowing 35 points and over
471 yards per game. BYU has excelled on offense this season and
this should be a good situation catching SDSU in a second
consecutive road trip. BYU BY 38
BOISE STATE (NL) Utah State 1:00 PM
Despite getting the least publicity of any of the potential small
conference BCS bowl contenders Boise State keeps rolling along
while the others have fallen off. Boise State continues to deliver
great ATS numbers as well and Utah State enters this game off
major upset win. This will be a huge spread but it is very tough to go
against the Broncos at home. Boise State is allowing less than ten
points per game and this should be another blowout. BOISE BY 35
Oklahoma (NL) TEXAS A&M 1:00 PM
The Aggies have had surprising success in this series and despite
being a down program in recent years the numbers as home
underdogs are solid. Texas A&M has won back-to-back games but
last week the Aggies were out-gained severely, needing turnovers to
steal the victory. Oklahoma has posted huge numbers on offense
but the defense is falling well short of typical Sooner numbers under
Stoops. Oklahoma has scored at least 35 points in every game this
season and the A&M defense is not going to make many stops in
this match-up. Texas A&M has lost four times S/U at home this
season so the home field edge has not been there. OU BY 42
RICE (-10) Army 2:00 PM
The Owls have delivered three consecutive wins and covers to
become bowl eligible even with a defense that is allowing 467 yards
per game. Army likely will not come close to that number, averaging
only 287 yards per game. Army has excellent numbers on defense
but the schedule has not featured many teams that can move the
ball like Rice has this season. After losing an early lead in a big
game against Air Force last week this could be a tough situation for
Army, facing long travel and a dangerous offense. RICE BY 14
COLORADO (-10) Iowa State 1:00 PM
Colorado started the season 3-0 but the Buffaloes have won just
once in the past six games, losing ATS in all six contests. Iowa State
is on a seven-game losing streak and this will be the second straight
road game for the Cyclones. Colorado was in a second straight road
game last week and the Buffaloes were the only Big 12 team to lose
in that situation this season as the previous five all had been ATS
winners. Iowa State is a tough team to back given the poor
defensive numbers even though Colorado has had a very tough time
scoring points. COLORADO BY 13
Memphis (-2½) SMU 2:00 PM
Both teams enjoyed bye weeks last week and it was much more
necessary for Memphis as the Tigers have been banged up,
particularly at the QB position. SMU is 1-8 on the season but there
have been several competitive games along the way in a transitional
year. Last season Memphis beat SMU 55-52 in triple overtime and
the Tigers have a lot of work to do if they are to make a bowl game
for the fifth time in the last seven years. The SMU defense is
allowing over 490 yards per game but the Memphis offense has not
been good at converting solid yardage numbers into points this
season. SMU is a team that should be improved under the new
offense but it might not be enough. MEMPHIS BY 6
MISSOURI (-26) Kansas State 2:30 PM
Missouri barely snuck by Baylor last week and it has been a
significant drop in credibility for a team that entered the year with
legitimate national title hopes. All the attention is on the Big 12
South but Missouri is likely still going to represent the Big 12 North
in the conference title game and the Tigers are dangerous enough
to deliver an upset to play its way into the BCS bowl that eluded
them last season. Kansas State has horrible defensive numbers and
the Wildcats will face a second straight road game and fourth in five
weeks. Last week’s game could be a wake-up call for the Tigers but
the reality is the defense is not very good against the pass, which is
K-State’s lone strong suit. MISSOURI BY 17
FLORIDA STATE (-6½) Clemson 2:30 PM
This ACC game lacks some intrigue without the father/son match-up
for the first time in many years but despite disappointing starts to the
season both teams are alive in the ACC Atlantic. Clemson has often
fallen flat as favorites but the Tigers are 11-2 in the last 13 games as
underdogs. Clemson has won each of the past three years in this
series and the Tigers may have some positive momentum after the
first win under their new coach. Florida State has been a
significantly superior team on offense by the numbers but the
Seminoles faced a very weak non-conference slate. Clemson is
allowing less than 17 points per game. CLEMSON BY 3
EAST CAROLINA (NL) Marshall 2:30 PM
Marshall delivered a huge win in primetime last week to take the
lead in the C-USA East. East Carolina can take back the lead with a
win this week but ECU is 1-4 ATS in the last five games. Marshall
has not had success as a road team but East Carolina has struggled
as a favorite. East Carolina is facing a short week after a Sunday
win but the Pirates should have a major defensive advantage.
Marshall’s win last week should not carry too much weight and the
Herd are 5-19-2 ATS in the last 26 road games. ECU BY 17
Kansas (-1½) NEBRASKA 2:30 PM
Nebraska should be able to move the ball against a terrible Kans as
pass defense and the Jayhawks could struggle after delivering a big
rivalry win last week. Nebraska was destroyed last week against
Oklahoma but turnovers played a big role and Lincoln is still an
intimidating venue, particularly for a team like Kansas that is not
accustomed to being a favorite on the road. Look for a bounce back
week from Nebraska as this should be a high scoring game with a
few bounces going the way of the Cornhuskers. NEBRASKA BY 7
Penn State (-7) IOWA 2:30 PM
The Lions figure to get a lot of backing in this game but it may be a
tougher match-up than most expect. Iowa is coming off a tough loss
to Illinois but the Hawkeyes have owned a very tough home field
edge under Coach Ferentz. Penn State completely dominated Iowa
last season so this already was going to be a key game for the
Hawkeyes. Iowa owns one of the top scoring defenses in the nation,
allowing just 13 points per game and this is a tough travel spot for
Penn State, as this is the fourth road game in the last six weeks. If
the Lions are to lose in the regular season this is likely the toughest
spot on the remaining schedule. PENN STATE BY 4
BOSTON COLLEGE (-3) Notre Dame 7:00 PM
The Eagles have won five consecutive meetings in this series but
the season is unraveling for BC with back-to-back losses. Notre
Dame fell short last week in a crushing blow to any lingering major
bowl hopes. Boston College has featured an incredibly tough
defense this season, allowing only 274 yards per game with great
numbers against the pass. The Irish will have a tough time
rebounding quickly and this series is always a bigger game for
Boston College even though the Eagles are the favorites. Notre
Dame’s schedule has been very weak and Boston College is a solid
team that is tough to beat at home this time of year. BC BY 10
TENNESSEE (-25½) Wyoming 12:00 PM
At 3-6 Tennessee would need to win out to be considered for a bowl
game and the Vols have struggled despite not allowing more than
30 points in any game and featuring outstanding defensive numbers.
Wyoming has decent defensive numbers but like Tennessee,
scoring has been a major obstacle. Wyoming could be a bit flat this
week after getting a big win last week and both coaching staffs are
likely in trouble this off-season. Tennessee’s has faced som e of the
top defenses in the nation in recent weeks and moving the ball
should come much easier this week. TENNESSEE BY 28
Alabama (-3) LSU 2:30 PM
Neither team dominated last week but both pulled away for solid
victories. At 9-0, Alabama has taken over the nation’s top ranking
but there are many hurdles still ahead. This game has intriguing
storylines on the sidelines as Coach Saban plays at LSU for the first
time since his departure. Alabama’s defense has been dominant but
the offense has gone through flat spots and the LSU defense may
be the top unit faced by the Tide so far this season. Alabama has
delivered in each tough road game so far this season and it is tough
to doubt Alabama here. ALBAMA BY 7
OREGON (-13) Stanford 2:30 PM
The Ducks fell flat last week in a big game and quietly Stanford is
just a win away from bowl eligibility. The remaining three games are
horribly difficult for the Cardinal however but catching Oregon off a
disappointing loss might be the best chance. Oregon has covered in
six in a row in this series and in a match-up of two strong rushing
teams should favor the home Ducks. Stanford’s only road win came
against winless Washington while Oregon has been a very strong
home team in recent years. OREGON BY 21
Arizona State (NL) WASHINGTON 6:00 PM
The Sun Devils have dropped six in a row even though a
competitive effort was given last week. Washington is 0-8 but each
of the first eight games came against teams that currently have
winning records. Washington has covered in just one gam e this
season but ASU has covered in just two games. Both teams have
horrendous running games and this will be a tougher situation for
Arizona State, facing a fourth road game in six weeks. Washington
has given little reason to expect an improved performance this week
but it is tough to lay points on the road with a team that has lost six
consecutive games. ARIZONA STATE BY 7
Hawaii (NL) NEW MEXICO STATE 3:00 PM
The Warriors were tripped up last week on the road and this will be
a second straight road game, always a difficult feat for the islanders.
New Mexico State did not come close in last week’s game against
WAC leader Boise State but the pass defense numbers for the
Aggies should be encouraging facing a Hawaii offense reliant on the
aerial attack. New Mexico State has played much closer with Hawaii
than the final margins suggest the past two years. NMS BY 3
HOUSTON (NL) Tulane 7:00 PM
Injuries have decimated a once promising start to the Tulane
season. Houston had a three-game win streak snapped in national
TV loss last week. Houston has dominated this series the past four
years and the Cougars will get up for this homecoming match-up.
Houston has played just one home game in the last six weeks so
this will be a greatly anticipated game and it will be the second
straight road game for Tulane. Look for Houston’s offense to get
back on track and Tulane does not have the offensive power to keep
pace in a high scoring game. HOUSTON BY 27
AIR FORCE (NL) Colorado State 5:30 PM
Air Force is quietly 7-2 for a highly productive season and the
Falcons continue to deliver incredible rushing numbers, averaging
274 yards per game. Defense has enabled the victories however as
Air Force is allowing just 17 points per game. Colorado State gave
BYU a serious scare last week but the Rams are getting few stops,
allowing over 32 points per game. Despite the in-state and
conference rivalry this series has produced few close games. Expect
Air Force to pull away with a convincing win. AIR FORCE BY 17
Oregon State (-7½) UCLA 5:00 PM
Oregon State has won five of the past six games but they face a
rested UCLA squad. The Bruins have just three wins and very
unimpressive statistics but UCLA is a dangerous home underdog in
this situation. Oregon State has had virtually no success the last two
decades in this series and the Bruins will catch value against a
Beavers squad that is gaining some attention. Oregon State has
struggled on special teams and the Beavers are 1-3 S/U on the road
this season with the lone win coming against winless Washington.
The numbers do not support UCLA but the situation may give the
Bruins an opportunity for an upset. UCLA BY 3
Arizona (-39) WASHINGTON STATE 9:00 PM
The Wildcats have had two weeks to recover from their near-miss
against USC and this week should provide a great opportunity to get
on track. Washington State is posting historically bad numbers,
allowing close to 50 points per game while scoring just 12 points per
game. In six Pac-10 games WSU is scoring just 5.5 points per
game. Arizona’s defense has been excellent this season and the
Wildcats need this win to clinch bowl eligibility for the first time since
1998. This will be an incredibly large spread but Arizona has had
two weeks to prepare and the Wildcats have no reason to hold back
following several seasons of frustration. The three Pac-10 home
games for WSU were against arguably the top three teams in the
conference so there may be some hope. ARIZONA BY 49
CENTRAL FLORIDA (NL) Southern Miss 6:00 PM
UCF has played back-to-back Sunday games and the Golden
Knights are still the defending conference champions even if
prospects look less promising this season. Southern Miss snapped a
five-game losing streak last week with a 70-point effort last week but
the UCF defense should prevent a repeat performance. Central
Florida is 9-2-1 the last twelve home games and Southern Miss is
giving up big numbers, allowing nearly 30 points per game. UCF has
been a bit inconsistent this season but Southern Miss will be
overvalued and face a third road game in four weeks. UCF BY 10
TEXAS (-25½) Baylor 6:00 PM
The four-game gauntlet for Texas ended sourly and this could be a
tougher than expected match-up for the Longhorns. Baylor played
right with Missouri last week and despite just three wins the Bears
have been very competitive in most games. The Bears have a
dangerous rushing offense with a mobile QB and Baylor could have
a rushing edge against a Texas squad that is more successful in the
air. If Texas comes out flat after last week’s big game this could be
an upset risk even though all the trends point to Texas as the vastly
superior squad in this game. The Longhorns are a tackle away from
still being the top team and it will still sting. TEXAS BY 21
WEST VIRGINIA (-8) Cincinnati 6:30 PM
The Mountaineers are the lone undefeated team in Big East
conference play and they take a five-game win streak into this
game. Despite numerous injuries this season Cincinnati is 6-2 and a
win here would put the Bearcats in the Big East driver’s seat.
Cincinnati has been very impressive against the run this season and
this will be a huge game for Cincinnati after a narrow loss in this
series last season. West Virginia has won outright in nine of the last
ten meetings between these teams and this team finally appears to
be living up to its potential after a rocky start to the season.
Cincinnati will have a tough time taking a second big conference win
in as many weeks. WEST VIRGINIA BY 17
PITTSBURGH (-6½) Louisville 6:30 PM
The Panthers moved to 6-2 with a huge win over Notre Dame last
week and there could be a letdown for Pittsburgh as Louisville aims
to bounce back from another loss to Syracuse. Louisville still needs
another win for bowl eligibility and with a tough remaining schedule
there will be great focus on this game. Louisville has won seven in a
row in this series and Pittsburgh has struggled at home, going 3-11
ATS in the last 14. Louisville has been an impressive team against
the run and Pittsburgh has posted very marginal numbers en route
to a solid record. Look for a bounce back from Louisville and expect
some extra value going against the Panthers. PITT BY 3
MINNESOTA (-7½) Michigan 7:00 PM
Minnesota has had little success in this series and the Gophers are
certainly not accustomed to the role as favorites against Michigan.
Last week’s loss was a crushing blow for the Gophers but at 7-2 it
has been a highly successful season. Michigan can no longer make
a bowl game and there is little left to play for so a second
consecutive road games against a more successful spread offense
might be problematic. Minnesota has been carried by turnovers this
season as the defense is posting very solid numbers a year after
being among the nation’s worst. Look for Minnesota to bounce back
and deliver as Michigan has little to play for. The Gophers have
been fortunate but Michigan has not proven it can avoid giving up
turnovers and big plays. MINNESOTA BY 10
USC (-17½) California 7:00 PM
California played USC very close last season and the Bears have
been dangerous underdogs. Southern Cal has delivered incredible
defensive numbers this season, allowing just over seven points per
game and only 211 yards per game. Cal has posted strong
defensive numbers as well and a win here would give the Bears a
great shot at unseating USC on top of the conference. Cal has not
played well on the road this season with both losses coming away
from home and USC will step up for this big game. This is the game
that USC has been waiting for to make a splash nationally after
having become a bit of an afterthought in the title picture as other
teams are grabbing headlines and the Pac-10 has been down. USC
has been dominant at home and there will be no lack of focus for
this big game. Cal likely slips after a big win last week. USC BY 28
SAN JOSE STATE (-8½) Louisiana Tech 7:00 PM
San Jose State nearly slipped last week but the Spartans are now 6-
3 and likely headed to another bowl game. Louisiana Tech picked
up a huge win last week and although the Bulldogs are tough in
Ruston they have not been able to duplicate that success on the
road. San Jose State has impressive defensive numbers this
season, particularly against the run and forcing Louisiana Tech to
the air has proven to be a successful formula this season. Louisiana
Tech is 0-4 S/U and ATS in road games this season and after a
huge win over the preseason WAC favorite a repeat performance is
unlikely in a difficult travel setting. SAN JOSE STATE BY 17
New Mexico (-3½) UNLV 9:00 PM
The Lobos came very close to a big upset last week but falling short
has left New Mexico two games out of bowl eligibility with just two
games to play. UNLV has lost five straight games and the Rebels
are allowing 35 points per game. New Mexico rushes for 212 yards
per game and the Lobos have covered in seven of the last nine
games in this series . This has been a very tight series in recent
years although New Mexico won convincingly last season at home.
The Lobos have not won outside their home state this season and
UNLV is a better team than the record indicates. NEW MEX BY 3
TROY (NL) Western Kentucky 2:30 PM
UL-Monroe knocked off Troy last week but the Trojans will still have
a great opportunity to win the Sun Belt hosting each of the final three
games. Western Kentucky lost soundly to North Texas last week as
big favorites in their homecoming game and the transition year has
not gone as planned for the Hilltoppers with a 0-7 record against
FBS teams, with only one cover on the year. Troy is unlikely to
match season averages with the necessary offensive changes due
to the QB injury and the Trojans will be huge favorites in this matchup
and it might be a tough spot to cover. TROY BY 21
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (-21) North Texas 3:00 PM
The Owls have not been able to live up to last season’s great run
through the Sun Belt but catching a relaxed North Texas squad off
its first win of the season should lead to a victory. Florida Atlantic
has had a bye week to prepare for this game and the Owls should
move the ball at will against the North Texas defense that is allowing
over 48 points per game. Last season North Texas put up a lot of
yardage in this game but turnovers helped lead FAU to the victory.
Look for a solid win from the Owls. FLORIDA ATL BY 24
UL-LAFAYETTE (-9½) Utep 6:00 PM
The Miners came close to a big win last week but the defense has
been a huge liability. UTEP has allowed 126 points in the last two
games and UL-Lafayette has emerged as the leader in the Sun Belt.
The Ragin’ Cajuns are rushing for over 300 yards per game and it
has led to a perfect 4-0 S/U and ATS record in the conference.
Getting the opportunity to host a non-conference game will not be
taken lightly and Lafayette beat Kent earlier this season at home
and played close at Illinois. UL-Lafayette does not have a strong
defense but the running game should carry the way. ULL BY 17
Arkansas State (-3) FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL 6:00 PM
Arkansas State could not hang close against Alabama last week and
it might be tough to face a now third-straight road game against an
improved Florida International team. Turnovers killed the Panthers
last week but FIU had covered in five in a row before struggling
against the current Sun Belt leader last week. Arkansas State has a
far superior running game but this will be a big game for the
Panthers after a narrow loss in this series last season. This should
be a tough spot for Arkansas State and Florida International will play
just its third home game of the year. FIU BY 3
MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (-4½) UL-Monroe 2:30 PM
The Blue Raiders have lost three in a row and five of the last six
despite starting the season with great promise, featuring an upset
over Maryland and a near-upset against Kentucky. Monroe is
coming off a big upset over Sun Belt powerhouse Troy and the
Warhawks have had a successful running game this season. MTSU
is coming off a bye week and five of the last six games were on the
road so this could be a breakout game. Catching Monroe off a huge
victory is a great situation and this is typically a high scoring series.
Monroe is 0-3 S/U on the road this season with only a narrow cover
in an eight-point loss this year. MTSU BY 14

RATING 5 NY GIANTS (+3) over Philadelphia
RATING 4 ST. LOUIS (+9) over NY Jets
RATING 3 ATLANTA (-1) over New Orleans
RATING 2 SAN DIEGO (-14) over Kansas City
RATING 1 GREEN BAY (+1) over Minnesota
THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 6, 2008
CLEVELAND (-3) Denver (48) 7:15 PM
The call to start QB Quinn may be coming as the Brown blew a 14-
point late game lead last week and QB Anderson could not make
plays when the team needed them. The Cleveland defense that had
played magnificently for four straight games , allowed over 400 yards
and 37 points to Baltimore last week at home. The Broncos have
dropped three in a row while moving to 1-7 ATS on the season.
Hailed as the next great QB in the league early in the year, Jay
Cutler has come on tough times of late and the Denver defense is
not helping the cause with league-worst numbers. BROWNS BY 6
SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 9, 2008
Jacksonville (-6) DETROIT (44½) 12:00 PM
The Lions finally avoiding digging a big hole to start a game but the
end result was a familiar loss. Detroit is 0-8 on the year but the Lions
have covered in three of the last four, with the one miss by just a
single point. Jacksonville has lost in consecutive weeks to losing
teams and at 3-5 the Jaguars are just that. This is the second week
in a row on the road facing long travel north and no game for the
Jaguars this season has been decided by more than seven points.
Laying points on the road is risky here. JAGUARS BY 3
Tennessee (NL) CHICAGO 12:00 PM
After getting great play from Kyle Orton the Bears are now back to
the much-maligned Rex Grossman at QB but he inherits a 1st place
team. The Titans have moved to a perfect 8-0 but last week’s game
with another NFC North squad was a major challenge. Last week’s
game was the first all season that Tennessee failed to cover in
(though a push at many closing lines) and although the defensive
scoring numbers have been great, opponents are starting to move
the ball more effectively against them. Chicago’s running game in
encouraging but going against the Titans is tough. TITANS BY 10
NEW ENGLAND (NL) Buffalo 12:00 PM
The Patriots could not deliver last week and turnovers and the
failure to find the end zone have been problems for the adjusting
offense. The Bills moved the ball at will early last week but had
everything that could go wrong go wrong to fall at home. The Bills,
Patriots, and Jets are all tied at 5-3 in the AFC East and 4-4 Miami is
also a serious threat. The Bills have lost 14 of the last 15 against
New England but the Patriots have been a terrible ATS team at
home recently, including 1-3 this year. PATRIOTS BY 3
ATLANTA (-1) New Orleans (50) 12:00 PM
The Falcons had a dominant performance last week on defense,
allowing three first downs and just 77 total yards in a shutout win. At
5-3 Atlanta is a serious playoff threat and the next three games all
come at home. New Orleans has not won consecutive games all
season long and the Saints defense has cancelled out the big
numbers from the offense. The Falcons are the top rushing team in
the league and Atlanta is 3-0 S/U and ATS at home so far this
season. Look for the Falcons to deliver. FALCONS BY 10
NY JETS (-9) St. Louis (44½) 12:00 PM
The Jets caught a ton of breaks last week and even though many of
the wins have not been impressive New York is 5-3 and tied for first
place in the East while going 4-1 in the last five games. St. Louis
came up well short to throw away an opportunity to climb back into
the NFC West race and the coaching change momentum appears to
be wearing thin. The Rams are allowing close to 30 points and over
400 yards but Jets have struggled against bad teams. JETS BY 3
MIAMI (-9½) Seattle (44) 12:00 PM
The Seahawks got off to a great start last week but then did nothing
the remainder of the game for yet another loss. Seattle is 2-6 on the
season and traveling clear across the country looks like a tough
situation. Miami is 4-4 on the season but none of the losses look bad
and the schedule ahead is highly favorable. Miami has had
disturbing recent numbers as home favorites but Seattle has not
been able to score points . DOLPHINS BY 14
MINNESOTA (-1) Green Bay (45) 12:00 PM
The Vikings got a big win last week and these two division favorites
are locked at 4-4 with an early final meeting of the season. Both
teams trail Chicago in the standings and the loser of this game will
have a very tough path to the playoffs. Green Bay has dominated
this series in recent years and the Vikings have not defended the
passing game well this season which should play into strengths for
the Packers. Look for a close battle but counting on Minnesota to
deliver in this big game is risky. PACKERS BY 4
Carolina (-9) OAKLAND (38½) 3:05 PM
The Panthers are 6-2 on the year but in a very competitive NFC
South there is little room for breathing as Tampa Bay also has six
wins and Atlanta is emerging as a contender. Oakland played
horribly last week and the Raiders are tough to trust in any
circumstance despite several competitive efforts this year. The
Raiders are now 6-17 ATS in the last 23 games as home
underdogs. Carolina is 1-2 on the road this season with only a
miraculous last second victory so this is far from a sure spot for the
Panthers even against Oakland. PANTHERS BY 7
SAN DIEGO (-14) Kansas City (47) 3:15 PM
The Chargers are rested but double-digit favorites have covered in
just 13 percent of games this season. The Chiefs continue to find
ways to lose but the last two weeks have featured competitive
efforts against teams with winning records. Kansas City has
struggled in this series and the Chargers are in dire need of a big
win despite being unreliable and questionably healthy this season.
The San Diego defense is problematic but last week’s loss has to
continue to hurt for the Chiefs. CHARGERS BY 21
PITTSBURGH (NL) Indianapolis 3:15 PM
The Colts were desperate for a win last week and despite a huge
disadvantage on the ground Indianapolis came up big in the hyped
match-up with the Patriots. Pittsburgh faces a tough scheduling spot
as the Steelers face this big game off a short week. Pittsburgh has
the best defensive numbers in the league and the emphasis on
running the ball should prove effective in this game. Indianapolis is
allowing over 140 yards per game on the ground while failing to
cover in the last three road games . STEELERS BY 10
PHILADELPHIA (-3) NY Giants (43½) 7:15 PM
The Eagles had a slow start last week but ultimately delivered a third
straight win. Philadelphia has had a few suspect wins this season
but the Eagles also could have won each of the three games they
lost. Defensively the Eagles have solid overall numbers in the NFC
but the Giants have been one of the best pass defenses in the NFL
so far this season. Philadelphia’s running game has been very
inconsistent. New York is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in
Philadelphia and the Giants are still the team to beat. GIANTS BY 4
Baltimore (NL) HOUSTON 12:00 PM
This game was moved to accommodate the changes after the
hurricane in Houston and the Ravens enter this game having won
and covered in three straight games. Houston could not keep up in
Minnesota last week and the Texans have allowed at least 21 points
in every game this year. Baltimore is still one of the top defensive
teams in the league and QB Flacco has been solid. RAVENS BY 7
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 10, 2008
ARIZONA (-10) San Francisco (46) 7:35 PM
Although the Cardinals have certainly delivered worse collapses in
franchise history it is tough to envision Arizona losing its grip on the
NFC West. Always plagued on the road, the Cardinals have played
well the past two weeks away from home and Arizona is 3-0 at
home this season, S/U and ATS, scoring at least 30 points in each
of those games. San Francisco is rested but the problems on the
team are many. QB Hill could provide a quick fix to keep this division
game close however. CARDINALS BY 7
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[TheShambler]

which newsletter plays are better to follow for the NFL ?

Thanks for sharing

 

[BuffaloSabre]

Great stuff guys. Thanks so much for posting!

 

[beachboy+]

Does anybody have the regular Gold Sheet? Just the key selections would be fine if you don't want to post the whole thing...

Thanks!

 

[LAHOTPICKS]

Stat Fox or Sports Memo

Is there any Stat Fox or Sports Memo out there?:aktion033

 

[BIGnose]

Gold Sheet
KEY RELEASES

NEW ENGLAND by 14 over Buffalo
ATLANTA by 14 over New Orleans
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER THE TOTAL in the Jacksonville-Detroit game

OVER THE TOTAL Jacksonville 30 - DETROIT 27—Lackluster effort
at Cincy has put J’ville in the ignominious position of possibly losing to both of
the only two remaining winless teams in as many weeks! 2008’s myriad of
injury and personnel woes at OL & WR have made Jags (who have dropped all
six chances as chalk) a far cry from their physical playoff team of LY. So, with
young QB Dan Orlovsky boosting the Detroit offense in recent weeks (25 ppg
last three), Jags likely to add to their 11-3 “over” mark last 14 on the road.
&#56256;&#56459;NEW ENGLAND 24 - Buffalo 10—Randy Moss’ dropped TDP and Bill
Belichick’s ill-timed fourth-and-one timeout (on a play N.E. would have
converted inside the 10) were major factors in N.E.’s 18-15 loss last week at
Indy. Expect the Pats to play more intelligently back at home laying small
number vs. team they have dominated (N.E. 9-0 SU last 9 meetings; 7-2 vs. the
spread). Bills not running (30 yards last week) or stopping the run as well as
earlier in season, while Pats’ QB Matt Cassel reading defenses quicker.
(07-N. ENG. 38-Buf. 7...N.27-12 N.38/177 B.27/110 N.23/29/0/308 B.11/21/1/83 N.1 B.1)

&#56256;&#56459;ATLANTA 34 - New Orleans 20—Falcons now own a pair of road wins
in addition to their sterling 3-0 SU & spread mark at home. And Michael Turner
(794 YR) gives them a substantial rushing edge over N.O. with Reggie Bush
(check status of knee injury) likely out again and Deuce McAllister (3.9 ypc) not
his old thundering self after LY’s knee injury. More importantly, Atlanta players
believe in and love playing for rookie HC Mike Smith, who—unlike predecessor
Bobby Petrino—went out of his way to meet and talk with everyone in the
organization to make them all feel part of the bigger plan. It’s worked so far.